If the fertility rate in the United States fell to 1.3 by 2030 it would work out to as few as 2.95 million births a year. If that happened we would have negative growth of 200K-400,000+annually. That would be devastating. Not South Korea existentially devastating but devastating nonetheless. Thankful for breeder cults!

The fertility rate of Taiwan has long been below replacement & has been lowest low(sub 1.3 TFR)for more than two decades &⬇️1.0 since 2020. Many many Taiwanese soldiers are only sons. Demographically in far worse shape on that front than the PRC. Only South Korea has it worse.

The cohort available for conscription gets smaller each year. The cohort born from 1976-1983 was the last sizable one and the youngest from that cohort are now older than 40. The cohort born from 2004-2011 is almost 50% smaller.

Seattle/King County has a TFR around the same level as Italy, Los Angeles has approximately the same TFR as Germany,San Francisco the same TFR as China, and Boston roughly similar TFR to Spain. So many dense urban areas of the U.S. have similar TFRs to the nationwide averages of many EU countries. Wild.

Suburban & urban counties will continue deviate more and more in terms of TFR. The commuter suburbs of the dense urban areas and those areas even further out will have much higher TFR. You can already see it in spread out cities like Dallas which are still close to replacement.

CDC Wonder gives the following figures:
King Cty (Seattle) 1.26
Los Angeles Cty 1.35
Suffolk Cty (Boston) 1.16
San Francisco 1.06
New York City 1.47
Dallas Cty 1.87

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/1820900807912411554

The demographic situation in Singapore, Poland, South Korea, Thailand and China is so bad that (if sustained) each coming generation will halve in size. Fertility rates of 0.72 to 1.1 are an existential threat.

The combined population of India, China and the United States (the three countries overlaying Africa here) is more than three billion. The population of Africa today is around 1.3 billion spread across 54 countries. Always amazed at the massive size of the continent of Africa.

The entire continent of Africa will never exceed 3 billion. Based on current TFR decline trajectories the continent’s population will peak at ~2.8B vs the ~3.25B peak for China, India, and the U.S. combined.

The European Union saw an estimated 3,672,667 births last year. This is less than 100,000 more births than the U.S. provisionally recorded (3,591,328). We are very close to seeing US births potentially reach parity with the EU despite having 110 million plus less people. Wild.

🇩🇪🇵🇱🇷🇴🇧🇬🇭🇷🇬🇷From 1990 to 2023 a total of more than 3,090,000 Romanians,Poles, Bulgarians, Croats, & Greeks moved to Germany. In the coming three decades mass emigration from all those countries will have largely ceased. Germany will face a severe shortfall of skilled European immigrants.

While it’s good irreligiously has stabilized & stopped increasing amongst those⬇️age 59, the generally low levels of religious adherence amongst America’s youngest augur a continuing Europeanization of American fertility. Medium term TFR of 1.5 or lower seems more & more likely.

In Myanmar most anti government forces are held together only by their desire to defeat the junta. If/when that is accomplished the country could split into half a dozen statelets & massive emigration could ensue if fighting continues. Many outcomes lead to demographic disaster.

There has already been substantial emigration from Myanmar, with much of it predating the war. Well over 1.5 million Burmese have moved to Thailand & the vast majority will never return. If the country were to lose millions more to emigration any recovery would be much harder.

The comeback of the titular ethnic group of Kazakhstan since 1989 has truly been nothing short of remarkable. In 1989 ethnic Kazakhs were only 39.7% of the population (down from 82% in 1897), by 1999 they were an ethnic majority again. Today (2024 estimates) Kazakhs are 71%.

This just proves that no matter how dire the strait or how dark the hour a nation can come back from oblivion. Latvia & Lithuania did too as have others. One should never just give in and say a nation’s people have no say in the national destiny. Lots can be reversed.

Doomers insist many countries are “done”due to immigration & low native TFR & claim titular nation will no longer be the majority. Things are rarely permanently settled like this. Peoples have a say & eventually can influence policy. Most nowhere near Balts or KZ were in 1989.

Yes without immigration & without a TFR of ~2.1 population will decline but that is a choice for the people’s of each country to make. Also levels of immigration needed to keep population pyramids steady at dependence ratio of today are far too high for many societies to handle.

https://x.com/masagget/status/1782486417978859898

Halting emigration should be joint priority right next to boosting births. If your young people leave in droves you are ultimately doomed as a country. Belarus, North Macedonia,Tunisia, & many others must fight hard to avoid becoming Bulgaria or Romania. Emptying & vulnerable.

By the way the estimate in the image is far too optimistic for many of the countries listed IMHO.