Plunging TFRs of the Philippines & Mexico since 2019 to well below replacement to have dramatic impacts on global immigrant labor flows. Mexico on track to be a net importer of labor by 2050 & the Philippines may be even earlier. Canada to triple down on sub replacement India.

South Korea likely not exiting its demographic doom loop anytime soon. Surveys show only 34% of women consider marriage & having children “necessary in their lives” compared to 60% for men. In addition, divorces point to women rejecting patriarchal men.

https://t.co/JZ6g1h94lE

It is increasingly clear that UN projections fail to incorporate new data (which shows dramatic falls in TFR are global+continuing)fast enough. Africa will never grow to 3.3+ billion people. They will see less than 3 billion. Below 400M in North Africa & 2.3B in Sub Saharan.

🇲🇦🇹🇳🇩🇿👶North African TFR all falling again. Algeria is on a lower (but still very healthy) 2.72 TFR. However, Tunisia is in collapse with TFR likely below 1.5 this year & Morocco’s also well below replacement. Working to halt mass emigration would benefit all three mid-long term.

In most European countries the largest generation is Boomers (not surprising). Also massive Gen X populations in Poland,the UK, Romania (decree 770), Bulgaria,the Netherlands, Slovakia, Ireland,& Belgium but very few European countries have large Millennial or Gen Z generations.

This is why I see a comeback for the native ethnicities of Europe as highly unlikely. Gen X are basically all outside of childbearing age (the youngest are 44/45 this year). While there are ok numbers of elder millennials in places like Poland+Romania it’s not nearly enough.

🇰🇷With a fertility rate of just 0.72 & falling South Korea’s ethnic makeup will change dramatically under mass migration. If current rates of immigration continue to 2050 South Korea will become more than 10% non-ethnic Korean. Double the current ~5% in just over two decades.

South Korea received a net-migration of +121,309 people in 2023, up from +88,029 in 2022.

If anything 10% could be a conservative estimate with the higher end being 25% of the South Korean population being non-Korean by 2050 is mass immigration accelerates rapidly.

In a best case scenario China has ⬇️1 billion people by 2100. This is both accurate & wild. This will seriously undermine several countries plans for future growth. We really have no idea how bad it could get. Avoidance of a South Korean demographic death spiral is uncertain.

China (in the absolute worse case scenario envisioned by the UN) loses around a billion people between now and 2100. That however would be if TFR fell below South Korea’s current level which is highly unlikely.

The U.S. has been below replacement fertility for more than 15 straight years. Maximum natural growth likely no more than 24 million which will stop by or before 2050. While NHW TFR will likely recover(to 1.6/8) NHB & Hispanic TFR will fall over time. Asian TFR will stay low.

U.S. population may grow to as high as 400M by 2050 but this would be largely due to mass migration not being halted. If the new administration is able to secure the border and other ports of entry to only lawful entry then the population will be ~375-379M.

The U.S. is on the cusp of a gigantic cultural, generational, & geopolitical shift as the Boomer & Gen X generations are replaced by Millennials & Gen Z in all aspects of life in the coming years. The older generation’s indoctrination & access to information was completely different. Huge changes ahead.

After Russia, Poland is now the biggest country in Eastern Europe in terms of population (after overtaking Ukraine in 2022). Its births are down almost 10% in the first half of this year. It is also the 6th largest EU population. Sub 1.3 TFR long term (already sub 1.5 since 1998) will have huge implications as Italy, Spain already there.

So let’s recap. Poland will have the lowest TFR of any mid-large EU country in 2024. Italy has long been sub 1.3. Spain sub 1.2. Germany loses 300K+ annually through natural decline & has had sub replacement TFR since 1972. EU is cooked.

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/1815680416042356874

This is what the demographic point of no return looks like. Italy will hit it in 2040. South Korea soon after. Poland, Taiwan, Germany, Thailand, & Spain not long after South Korea. When a country hits this point they are largely economically & financially finished.

Taiwan is not only seeing zero Dragon Year rebound but its fall in births this year over last year is actually slightly increasing. In the first half of 2024 only 66,028 Taiwanese were born. This is a ⬇️ of 3.26% over the first half of 2023. Sharp contrast with the last YOTD.

Last Dragon Year (in 2012) Taiwan got a substantial bump in births (a jump of more than 30,000 from 2011). Not only is no such bump occurring now but things are moving in reverse. Extremely rough road ahead. Source of 2024 births: https://www.stat.gov.tw/Statistics.aspx

Lithuanian births are down more than 11% in the first half of this year. The Lithuanian government recorded just 9,252 births from January to June 2024 compared to 10,467 from the same period of 2023. TFR may fall close to 1.0 this year. Approaching East Asian levels.

According to Statistics Estonia June was also a rough month for them. Births are now down more than 7% in the first half of 2024 compared to 2023. TFR may go below 1.2 this year.

Spanish demographics are looking very Canadian these days. Large numbers of immigrants growing the population annually while TFR stays at very low levels. Spain sees hundreds of thousands of immigrant arrivals each year & TFR is stuck below 1.2. Canada~1.25 with mass migration.

Amazed at how low Spanish TFR is in some of the provinces. Especially Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Las Palmas, Pontevedra, Orense, Asturias, León, and Zamora. Those provinces have East Asia (even Taiwanese level) low fertility. The northwest will practically empty of Spaniards.

Very notable. Japan made a huge deal of their country hitting a TFR of 1.572 in 1989. It was called “the 1.57 Shock” & made the front page of several Japanese newspapers & magazines at the time. When European countries hit ~1.5 TFR milestone there was much less media attention.

https://x.com/annatar_i/status/1818953020035731912

Israel will soon overtake Jordan in total annual births (Israel has had a higher TFR than the Hashemite Kingdom for years). By 2050 Israel likely to have a higher total population than Jordan as well. This is due almost entirely to Haredi sky high 6+ TFR.

If the fertility rate in the United States fell to 1.3 by 2030 it would work out to as few as 2.95 million births a year. If that happened we would have negative growth of 200K-400,000+annually. That would be devastating. Not South Korea existentially devastating but devastating nonetheless. Thankful for breeder cults!

The fertility rate of Taiwan has long been below replacement & has been lowest low(sub 1.3 TFR)for more than two decades &⬇️1.0 since 2020. Many many Taiwanese soldiers are only sons. Demographically in far worse shape on that front than the PRC. Only South Korea has it worse.

The cohort available for conscription gets smaller each year. The cohort born from 1976-1983 was the last sizable one and the youngest from that cohort are now older than 40. The cohort born from 2004-2011 is almost 50% smaller.

Seattle/King County has a TFR around the same level as Italy, Los Angeles has approximately the same TFR as Germany,San Francisco the same TFR as China, and Boston roughly similar TFR to Spain. So many dense urban areas of the U.S. have similar TFRs to the nationwide averages of many EU countries. Wild.

Suburban & urban counties will continue deviate more and more in terms of TFR. The commuter suburbs of the dense urban areas and those areas even further out will have much higher TFR. You can already see it in spread out cities like Dallas which are still close to replacement.

CDC Wonder gives the following figures:
King Cty (Seattle) 1.26
Los Angeles Cty 1.35
Suffolk Cty (Boston) 1.16
San Francisco 1.06
New York City 1.47
Dallas Cty 1.87

https://x.com/birthgauge/status/1820900807912411554