In just 25 years modern human society will undergo one of the greatest changes of its entire history. Almost every continent will have aging or aged or super aged populations. Just looking at this map shows how rapid this transformation will be.
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Vietnam: good demographics, strong economic growth, overall smart people, stable leadership, sensible foreign policy. Completely understand those bullish about the country’s future. One of a very few countries that fit all those criteria.
Despite most of its neighbors fading fast, Vietnam has maintained a fertility rate above 1.95 despite fast economic growth (which usually depresses fertility). If Vietnam can keep TFR above 1.8 over the coming decade they will be in relatively excellent shape.
Despite most of its neighbors fading fast, Vietnam has maintained a fertility rate above 1.95 despite fast economic growth (which usually depresses fertility). If Vietnam can keep TFR above 1.8 over the coming decade they will be in relatively excellent shape.
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While an aging Colombia will suck up young Venezuelan workers the same cannot he said for Mexico or Brazil. Mexico’s demand for cheap labor could literally take Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, & Nicaragua to the breaking point. Hollowed out & devoid of young people.
Similarly for Brazil it’s neighbors are small (think Paraguay, Bolivia) & many form there prefer to emigrate to Argentina. Brazil may opt for Angolans and Mozambicans but I honestly doubt it in large numbers.
These aging Latam giants must ultimately get to the conclusion that immigration is not the solution to demographic downturns. They will need to develop fast and use technology to help them adjust.
https://x.com/birthgauge/status/1804234762527347171
Similarly for Brazil it’s neighbors are small (think Paraguay, Bolivia) & many form there prefer to emigrate to Argentina. Brazil may opt for Angolans and Mozambicans but I honestly doubt it in large numbers.
These aging Latam giants must ultimately get to the conclusion that immigration is not the solution to demographic downturns. They will need to develop fast and use technology to help them adjust.
https://x.com/birthgauge/status/1804234762527347171
X (formerly Twitter)
Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) on X
Colombia recorded 145,416 births in Jan-Apr 2024, a steep drop of 14.1% compared to 2023. The TFR of Colombia this year could fall to barely above 1.2 kids per woman after 1.40 in 2023.
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A brief word on the sad situation in Ukraine. A huge chunk of the already small youth cohort(aged 18-34) is abroad. They also (unsurprisingly) don’t seem to be having many kids in the diaspora. There are probably only 220K Ukrainians being born each year Europe wide.
The cohort of Ukrainians aged 18-29 was already very small due to the collapse in Ukrainian births from 1995-2006. Many left in 2022 fleeing the start of the war. Most of those have stayed abroad and have no plans to return.
While the Ukrainian cohort born from 1972 to 1988 is still quite large they are already in their mid 30s to early 50s. Many of the men from this cohort have also been killed or wounded in action. The impact on Ukrainian society of these losses going forward will be significant.
The cohort of Ukrainians aged 18-29 was already very small due to the collapse in Ukrainian births from 1995-2006. Many left in 2022 fleeing the start of the war. Most of those have stayed abroad and have no plans to return.
While the Ukrainian cohort born from 1972 to 1988 is still quite large they are already in their mid 30s to early 50s. Many of the men from this cohort have also been killed or wounded in action. The impact on Ukrainian society of these losses going forward will be significant.
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Demographics Now and Then
A brief word on the sad situation in Ukraine. A huge chunk of the already small youth cohort(aged 18-34) is abroad. They also (unsurprisingly) don’t seem to be having many kids in the diaspora. There are probably only 220K Ukrainians being born each year…
Russia has obviously taken significant losses in that cohort as well. However, their population is obviously larger & only hundreds of thousands and not millions fled Russia in 2022 to avoid mobilization. Plus most of their “comeback cohort” (born 2008-2016) is home not abroad.
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Japan is in much better demographic shape than South Korea. Japan’s lowest TFR is in Tokyo prefecture at 0.99. The highest TFR of any of South Korea’s administrative regions is⬇️0.99. A national TFR difference of 1.2 vs 0.72 really is breathtaking when seen from this perspective.
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Named and confirmed Ukrainian KIA now 50,813 since 2022. Total is thus likely more than 100,000 KIA minimum. Another 50,000 plus are confirmed amputees. For a country of just 31M (current maximum population under Ukrainian government control) with a TFR below 1.3 this is absolutely unsustainable. Situation in Russia also grim. Russia is estimated to have taken at least 80,000 military KIA plus 25,000 PMC KIA but has more than four times the population. Russian TFR currently around 1.4.
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🇪🇨👶In 2023, Ecuador recorded 238,772 births, 4.6% fewer than in 2022. The TFR declined to 1.60 kids per woman, putting them below the US. Demographic decline in Latam becoming extreme. Colombia below 1.5, Chile on track to be below 1.0, Argentina below 1.4, Costa Rica below 1.3.
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🇹🇭👶Thai births down almost 21% in June and 11% for 2024 so far.
Truly remarkable levels of decline. Thailand is demographically capitulating. It seems they will go far below 1.0 TFR this year. The fact that the government and youth have been at odds for years and many young people feel they have no future a definite contributor.
When all the parties they vote for get banned and the elites are seemingly living in a world completely separate from them it is no surprise young Thais don’t want to emulate older generations life/parenthood paths.
Truly remarkable levels of decline. Thailand is demographically capitulating. It seems they will go far below 1.0 TFR this year. The fact that the government and youth have been at odds for years and many young people feel they have no future a definite contributor.
When all the parties they vote for get banned and the elites are seemingly living in a world completely separate from them it is no surprise young Thais don’t want to emulate older generations life/parenthood paths.
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Plunging TFRs of the Philippines & Mexico since 2019 to well below replacement to have dramatic impacts on global immigrant labor flows. Mexico on track to be a net importer of labor by 2050 & the Philippines may be even earlier. Canada to triple down on sub replacement India.
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South Korea likely not exiting its demographic doom loop anytime soon. Surveys show only 34% of women consider marriage & having children “necessary in their lives” compared to 60% for men. In addition, divorces point to women rejecting patriarchal men.
https://t.co/JZ6g1h94lE
https://t.co/JZ6g1h94lE
The Economist
Meet the incels and anti-feminists of Asia
They threaten to make the region’s demographic decline even worse
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🇲🇦🇹🇳🇩🇿👶North African TFR all falling again. Algeria is on a lower (but still very healthy) 2.72 TFR. However, Tunisia is in collapse with TFR likely below 1.5 this year & Morocco’s also well below replacement. Working to halt mass emigration would benefit all three mid-long term.
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In most European countries the largest generation is Boomers (not surprising). Also massive Gen X populations in Poland,the UK, Romania (decree 770), Bulgaria,the Netherlands, Slovakia, Ireland,& Belgium but very few European countries have large Millennial or Gen Z generations.
This is why I see a comeback for the native ethnicities of Europe as highly unlikely. Gen X are basically all outside of childbearing age (the youngest are 44/45 this year). While there are ok numbers of elder millennials in places like Poland+Romania it’s not nearly enough.
This is why I see a comeback for the native ethnicities of Europe as highly unlikely. Gen X are basically all outside of childbearing age (the youngest are 44/45 this year). While there are ok numbers of elder millennials in places like Poland+Romania it’s not nearly enough.
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🇰🇷With a fertility rate of just 0.72 & falling South Korea’s ethnic makeup will change dramatically under mass migration. If current rates of immigration continue to 2050 South Korea will become more than 10% non-ethnic Korean. Double the current ~5% in just over two decades.
South Korea received a net-migration of +121,309 people in 2023, up from +88,029 in 2022.
If anything 10% could be a conservative estimate with the higher end being 25% of the South Korean population being non-Korean by 2050 is mass immigration accelerates rapidly.
South Korea received a net-migration of +121,309 people in 2023, up from +88,029 in 2022.
If anything 10% could be a conservative estimate with the higher end being 25% of the South Korean population being non-Korean by 2050 is mass immigration accelerates rapidly.
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