Demographics Now and Then
Obviously workism is a modern problem across all of East Asia that did not come from the West but rather the effort to become part of (& exceed within) the Western dominated global economy from 1975-2015. But CCP may use propaganda to make such concepts seem…
If the CCP went culturally “all in” to achieve a transformation in fertility they would still not be able to get TFR back to 1.8. But it could still stop TFR from getting to South Korean or Taiwanese levels and possibly get TFR back to 1.3 or higher.
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This could be the 1st year in Thailand since records began that less than 500,000 annual births are recorded. The country is also on track for sub 1.0 TFR for 2024. This combined with potentially declining immigration from Burma by the 2030s spells disaster in the decades ahead.
However, averting immediate demographic problems for Thailand by importing Burmese means trouble for Myanmar. Burma simply cannot have 200,000 young people move to Thailand annually in 2030s without dramatic long term consequences for their own country (which is already approaching replacement TFR).
However, averting immediate demographic problems for Thailand by importing Burmese means trouble for Myanmar. Burma simply cannot have 200,000 young people move to Thailand annually in 2030s without dramatic long term consequences for their own country (which is already approaching replacement TFR).
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🇦🇺👶Australia is now at ~1.50 TFR. The Lucky Country, which saw a substantial fertility clawback from 2006 to 2015 (when TFR stayed above 1.8 partly as the result of natalist benefits), is now facing the worst TFR ever recorded in its history. Around the same level as the UK.
Australia's births declined by 4.5% year on year in 2023.
The TFR in Australia declined to ~1.50 in 2023 compared to 1.63 in 2022 (and 1.70 in 2021).
Australia's births declined by 4.5% year on year in 2023.
The TFR in Australia declined to ~1.50 in 2023 compared to 1.63 in 2022 (and 1.70 in 2021).
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🇪🇬👶Egypt on track to have a TFR of less than 2.5 for the 1st time in history. TFR was 3.5 as recently as 2014 & 3.0 in 2018. Egypt is likely to fall below replacement TFR before 2030 as urban and secular couples see TFR plummet just as religious couples also have smaller families.
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In just 25 years modern human society will undergo one of the greatest changes of its entire history. Almost every continent will have aging or aged or super aged populations. Just looking at this map shows how rapid this transformation will be.
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Vietnam: good demographics, strong economic growth, overall smart people, stable leadership, sensible foreign policy. Completely understand those bullish about the country’s future. One of a very few countries that fit all those criteria.
Despite most of its neighbors fading fast, Vietnam has maintained a fertility rate above 1.95 despite fast economic growth (which usually depresses fertility). If Vietnam can keep TFR above 1.8 over the coming decade they will be in relatively excellent shape.
Despite most of its neighbors fading fast, Vietnam has maintained a fertility rate above 1.95 despite fast economic growth (which usually depresses fertility). If Vietnam can keep TFR above 1.8 over the coming decade they will be in relatively excellent shape.
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While an aging Colombia will suck up young Venezuelan workers the same cannot he said for Mexico or Brazil. Mexico’s demand for cheap labor could literally take Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, & Nicaragua to the breaking point. Hollowed out & devoid of young people.
Similarly for Brazil it’s neighbors are small (think Paraguay, Bolivia) & many form there prefer to emigrate to Argentina. Brazil may opt for Angolans and Mozambicans but I honestly doubt it in large numbers.
These aging Latam giants must ultimately get to the conclusion that immigration is not the solution to demographic downturns. They will need to develop fast and use technology to help them adjust.
https://x.com/birthgauge/status/1804234762527347171
Similarly for Brazil it’s neighbors are small (think Paraguay, Bolivia) & many form there prefer to emigrate to Argentina. Brazil may opt for Angolans and Mozambicans but I honestly doubt it in large numbers.
These aging Latam giants must ultimately get to the conclusion that immigration is not the solution to demographic downturns. They will need to develop fast and use technology to help them adjust.
https://x.com/birthgauge/status/1804234762527347171
X (formerly Twitter)
Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) on X
Colombia recorded 145,416 births in Jan-Apr 2024, a steep drop of 14.1% compared to 2023. The TFR of Colombia this year could fall to barely above 1.2 kids per woman after 1.40 in 2023.
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A brief word on the sad situation in Ukraine. A huge chunk of the already small youth cohort(aged 18-34) is abroad. They also (unsurprisingly) don’t seem to be having many kids in the diaspora. There are probably only 220K Ukrainians being born each year Europe wide.
The cohort of Ukrainians aged 18-29 was already very small due to the collapse in Ukrainian births from 1995-2006. Many left in 2022 fleeing the start of the war. Most of those have stayed abroad and have no plans to return.
While the Ukrainian cohort born from 1972 to 1988 is still quite large they are already in their mid 30s to early 50s. Many of the men from this cohort have also been killed or wounded in action. The impact on Ukrainian society of these losses going forward will be significant.
The cohort of Ukrainians aged 18-29 was already very small due to the collapse in Ukrainian births from 1995-2006. Many left in 2022 fleeing the start of the war. Most of those have stayed abroad and have no plans to return.
While the Ukrainian cohort born from 1972 to 1988 is still quite large they are already in their mid 30s to early 50s. Many of the men from this cohort have also been killed or wounded in action. The impact on Ukrainian society of these losses going forward will be significant.
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Demographics Now and Then
A brief word on the sad situation in Ukraine. A huge chunk of the already small youth cohort(aged 18-34) is abroad. They also (unsurprisingly) don’t seem to be having many kids in the diaspora. There are probably only 220K Ukrainians being born each year…
Russia has obviously taken significant losses in that cohort as well. However, their population is obviously larger & only hundreds of thousands and not millions fled Russia in 2022 to avoid mobilization. Plus most of their “comeback cohort” (born 2008-2016) is home not abroad.
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Japan is in much better demographic shape than South Korea. Japan’s lowest TFR is in Tokyo prefecture at 0.99. The highest TFR of any of South Korea’s administrative regions is⬇️0.99. A national TFR difference of 1.2 vs 0.72 really is breathtaking when seen from this perspective.
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Named and confirmed Ukrainian KIA now 50,813 since 2022. Total is thus likely more than 100,000 KIA minimum. Another 50,000 plus are confirmed amputees. For a country of just 31M (current maximum population under Ukrainian government control) with a TFR below 1.3 this is absolutely unsustainable. Situation in Russia also grim. Russia is estimated to have taken at least 80,000 military KIA plus 25,000 PMC KIA but has more than four times the population. Russian TFR currently around 1.4.
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🇪🇨👶In 2023, Ecuador recorded 238,772 births, 4.6% fewer than in 2022. The TFR declined to 1.60 kids per woman, putting them below the US. Demographic decline in Latam becoming extreme. Colombia below 1.5, Chile on track to be below 1.0, Argentina below 1.4, Costa Rica below 1.3.
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🇹🇭👶Thai births down almost 21% in June and 11% for 2024 so far.
Truly remarkable levels of decline. Thailand is demographically capitulating. It seems they will go far below 1.0 TFR this year. The fact that the government and youth have been at odds for years and many young people feel they have no future a definite contributor.
When all the parties they vote for get banned and the elites are seemingly living in a world completely separate from them it is no surprise young Thais don’t want to emulate older generations life/parenthood paths.
Truly remarkable levels of decline. Thailand is demographically capitulating. It seems they will go far below 1.0 TFR this year. The fact that the government and youth have been at odds for years and many young people feel they have no future a definite contributor.
When all the parties they vote for get banned and the elites are seemingly living in a world completely separate from them it is no surprise young Thais don’t want to emulate older generations life/parenthood paths.
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Plunging TFRs of the Philippines & Mexico since 2019 to well below replacement to have dramatic impacts on global immigrant labor flows. Mexico on track to be a net importer of labor by 2050 & the Philippines may be even earlier. Canada to triple down on sub replacement India.
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