It is likely that the fertility rate for the entire 448 million string European Union fell to its lowest level on record (~1.41) in 2023. The economic, cultural, & national security ramifications of this will be absolutely enormous in the decades ahead.

Huge fall in Colombian births. Down by whopping 11% in 2023 according to preliminary data. Colombia’s fertility rate is now likely below 1.5. Needless to say it is the lowest TFR in their recorded history.

Preliminary numbers for January 2024 show the situation getting worse with a fall of 13.7% compared to January 2023.

Canary Islands really are going for the lowest TFR of any region in European recorded history. The TFR of the islands are already at East Asian levels of 0.80 or so. If they were to continue falling by another 10% they will be at the South Korean depths this year.

https://x.com/somelsomni/status/1770732920061284862?s=46&t=4B1VZvcCmqy_LsZnd1cuig

Sri Lanka just the latest South Asian country to hit low fertility. Sri Lanka on target to have a TFR of 1.5. India and Nepal are also below replacement. Bangladesh is not far behind. Huge societies getting old before they get rich. This is becoming the norm everywhere.

All of Southeast Asia marching towards below replacement fertility rates. Laos will likely hit this level in 2029/2030. Myanmar, Cambodia and East Timor around the same time. & with that the entire region will have slipped below 2.1.

The aging, aged, & super aged regions of South Korea:

The Faeroes and Greenland now both below replacement and reporting the lowest numbers of births in almost a century. These sparsely populated territories will likely struggle to attract enough immigrants after 2040 to avoid depopulation.

Danish realm in trouble…

Think the UN should issue a map like this and update it annually. Truly a “State of the Nations of the World” snapshot. This maps the real global crisis.

Honestly it’s too optimistic though. I believe Peru was below replacement in 2022 (as was Tunisia and a few other countries in Red).

Australian births fell by 3.5% in the 1st 9 months of 2023. If this trend continued throughout last year TFR could have fallen as low as 1.55. If Australia dropped ⬇️1.6 in 2023 that is extremely significant. It follows a trend seen in Canada & the UK.

Australia, Canada, & the UK (as well as the United States) have taken in massive number of immigrants without addressing the severe housing shortage. In the first three countries this has not only driven down native TFR but immigrant TFR as well. Canada is ⬇️1.3 & the UK ⬇️1.5.

https://t.co/Uh8rSbullL

The number of immigrants in the United States has increased 5 fold since 1970, 2.5X since 1990, & 65% since 2000. As a share of population,even in 1890 (14.8%) & 1910 (14.7%) during the “Great Wave” of immigration, the foreign-born were a smaller proportion of the population than today (15.5%, the highest ever reported in any U.S. Census or survey).

Brazilian births declined considerably in 2022. The most pronounced declines were in the areas with high mixed race (Pardo) and Afro-Brazilian populations like the Northeast.

Nearly half of Chinese women born after 1995(48.3%)want only 0-1 children. That is catastrophic. The fact that Chinese parents of 2+ children complain about the financial burdens of child rearing as often as they talk up the benefits only hurts natality.

https://t.co/iVAGSL4eYv

High immigration and low TFR helped bring us historic low TFR in Canada, Australia, & other countries. So quite right. Such a policy does not work. In fact it probably even (through higher home prices and rents) decreases national fertility rates.

https://x.com/philippilk/status/1775079637128778180

Canada, Australia, & the United Kingdom (& to a lesser extent,
my own country the United States as well) have committed to mass migration to counter demographic decline & foster growth. This is flawed and will only lead to greater demographic decline. Canada, UK show us this.

For one thing homebuilding in all four of these countries is far behind population growth. This housing prices will continue to increase until the next economic bust. This helps to drive down family size.

For the record I don’t see home prices decreasing significantly in any FVEY country short of a major recession (& countries have shown they can go a very long time without a major recession). Recessions which lead to significant job losses negatively impact TFR as well.

Foreign TFR in Italy is probably no higher than 1.75 today. However, this is still far higher than the sub 1.2 TFR for native Italians.

https://x.com/desilentiojohan/status/1775164294423814336

A huge proportion of Ukraine’s comeback cohort(born from 2008-2013)fled the country in 2022 at the start of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine & have yet to return. With each passing year it looks less & less likely most will. This would be an existential disaster for the country.

In this article the General Secretary of India’s ruling BJP said the party saw the role of the international Indian Diaspora being akin to “the way the Jewish community looks out for Israel's interests in the United States.”.

https://t.co/mS2BWjKDsW