Global population is expected to fall by the latter half of this century as global TFR falls⬇️replacement. This will mark the first global population decline since the Bubonic Plague Pandemic of the 1300s. This time due entirely to falling fertility rates.

https://t.co/VFZLVoqQ9A

According to the lancet study researchers estimate that by 2050, 155 of 204 (76%) countries+territories will have below replacement fertility. The number of countries and territories below replacement level is predicted to further increase to 198 of 204 (97%) by 2100.

The lancet study also predicts that while Sub Saharan African fertility rates will fall substantially (& most countries there will be below replacement by 2100) 50% of babies born on earth will be born there by 2100. This is up from around 25% of all babies born on earth today.

The study also looked at the pro-natal policies of various countries and found that they may help keep countries from falling to lowest low(below 1.3 TFR) fertility rates. Thus effective measures to slow the demographic collapse are incredibly important even if 2.1 unachievable.

Births in South Africa are falling fast. Would not be surprised in the slightest if TFR fell below replacement before 2030.

Dramatic declines in global fertility rates set to transform global demographic patterns over the rest of this century, a new GBD Capstone study suggests.

"Even if global fertility were to rebound tomorrow, the momentum toward degrowth, both demographic and otherwise, will necessitate addressing degrowth on a global scale this century." - The End of Unemployment

It is likely that the fertility rate for the entire 448 million string European Union fell to its lowest level on record (~1.41) in 2023. The economic, cultural, & national security ramifications of this will be absolutely enormous in the decades ahead.

Huge fall in Colombian births. Down by whopping 11% in 2023 according to preliminary data. Colombia’s fertility rate is now likely below 1.5. Needless to say it is the lowest TFR in their recorded history.

Preliminary numbers for January 2024 show the situation getting worse with a fall of 13.7% compared to January 2023.

Canary Islands really are going for the lowest TFR of any region in European recorded history. The TFR of the islands are already at East Asian levels of 0.80 or so. If they were to continue falling by another 10% they will be at the South Korean depths this year.

https://x.com/somelsomni/status/1770732920061284862?s=46&t=4B1VZvcCmqy_LsZnd1cuig

Sri Lanka just the latest South Asian country to hit low fertility. Sri Lanka on target to have a TFR of 1.5. India and Nepal are also below replacement. Bangladesh is not far behind. Huge societies getting old before they get rich. This is becoming the norm everywhere.

All of Southeast Asia marching towards below replacement fertility rates. Laos will likely hit this level in 2029/2030. Myanmar, Cambodia and East Timor around the same time. & with that the entire region will have slipped below 2.1.

The aging, aged, & super aged regions of South Korea:

The Faeroes and Greenland now both below replacement and reporting the lowest numbers of births in almost a century. These sparsely populated territories will likely struggle to attract enough immigrants after 2040 to avoid depopulation.

Danish realm in trouble…

Think the UN should issue a map like this and update it annually. Truly a “State of the Nations of the World” snapshot. This maps the real global crisis.

Honestly it’s too optimistic though. I believe Peru was below replacement in 2022 (as was Tunisia and a few other countries in Red).

Australian births fell by 3.5% in the 1st 9 months of 2023. If this trend continued throughout last year TFR could have fallen as low as 1.55. If Australia dropped ⬇️1.6 in 2023 that is extremely significant. It follows a trend seen in Canada & the UK.

Australia, Canada, & the UK (as well as the United States) have taken in massive number of immigrants without addressing the severe housing shortage. In the first three countries this has not only driven down native TFR but immigrant TFR as well. Canada is ⬇️1.3 & the UK ⬇️1.5.

https://t.co/Uh8rSbullL

The number of immigrants in the United States has increased 5 fold since 1970, 2.5X since 1990, & 65% since 2000. As a share of population,even in 1890 (14.8%) & 1910 (14.7%) during the “Great Wave” of immigration, the foreign-born were a smaller proportion of the population than today (15.5%, the highest ever reported in any U.S. Census or survey).

Brazilian births declined considerably in 2022. The most pronounced declines were in the areas with high mixed race (Pardo) and Afro-Brazilian populations like the Northeast.

Nearly half of Chinese women born after 1995(48.3%)want only 0-1 children. That is catastrophic. The fact that Chinese parents of 2+ children complain about the financial burdens of child rearing as often as they talk up the benefits only hurts natality.

https://t.co/iVAGSL4eYv

High immigration and low TFR helped bring us historic low TFR in Canada, Australia, & other countries. So quite right. Such a policy does not work. In fact it probably even (through higher home prices and rents) decreases national fertility rates.

https://x.com/philippilk/status/1775079637128778180