Well those 80% of Americans are correct. The influence of religion, family, & community are all declining as the influence of social media, celebrities, & corporations grows ever stronger. When family & community declines so does society.

Czechia seemed like a good example of a country that could have rising TFR with high irreligiously. But three things. 1.) they have been irreligious for a long time. 2.) their impressive TFR bounce back was very brief. 3.) Community and family were still relatively strong in many parts of the country.

Chinese marriages were up dramatically in 2023 by 12.4% over 2022. It marked the first annual increase in marriages in nine years and bodes well for an increase in births during the Dragon Year which began in February.

https://t.co/tKOrxDXsVt

Have said this a lot (but it’s important). Europe’s economic engines are sputtering out & may never restart. Germany had a catastrophic 2023 demographically. Even with a population swelled to 84.4M+ by immigration, TFR fell to the lowest level since 2009 at ~1.37.

Canada style mass immigration solutions don’t work. Immigrants with very low TFR simply push the problem to the right by 20-30 years and create a much bigger retirement crisis for our kids to deal with. Is that responsible?

Every once in a while I feel the need to comment on how much of a disaster our nations policy towards the Middle East has been for the regions Christians. Before the Iraq war there were around 1M Christians. Before the civil war in Syria 2M Christians lived there.

The Christian population in both countries dates back to the dawn of Christianity. Iraqi and Syrian Christians are as Iraqi and Syrian as one can possibly be. The US invasion was the beginning of the end of the Christian community in Iraq which plummeted from 900K to under 300K.

While Saddam was not good for Iraq, history shows us that what followed his ouster was worse than many could have imagined. It directly led to 15 years of destruction and bloodshed that utterly devastated Iraq and left its many communities(and the standing of the US)in tatters.

This was not an unforeseen calamity in fact the excellent book “The Vanishing: Faith, Loss, and the Twilight of Christianity in the Land of the Prophets” illustrates clearly that Iraq’s Christian community knew well ahead of the invasion that it would cause their destruction.

After a series of events targeting their community,from the sporadic assassinations from 2003-2007 to the Mosul Christian attacks of 2008 to the 2010 Baghdad Church massacre and culminating in the Fall of Mosul to ISIS in 2014,most Iraqi Christians decided to make a final exodus.

So Iraq’s Christians went from a situation where,under Saddam,they enjoyed protection and near-equal rights with Iraq’s Muslim majority to a situation(which was a direct result of the US invasion)where they became a hunted minority that could no longer live in their native land.

So in short our country’s policy replaced a brutal secular dictator with a lawless and failed state that allowed al Qaeda and then ISIS to flourish. Which brings us to Syria where history almost repeated itself.

In Syria the US (again willfully ignoring regional history and dynamics) intervened with horrific consequences for the country’s Christians. I strongly believe the initial uprising and protests in 2011 were authentic and brutally repressed its also clear it was quickly hijacked.

There were many foreign parties interested in removing the Assad regime. They backed Islamist and other armed groups to oust him. Like Iraq the Syrian Baathist government does much to guarantee Christians and other minorities have the same rights as the Sunni Muslim majority.

This created a situation where western supplied Islamist forces took on the secular and mainly Alawite Assad regime. Naturally the Christians sided with the latter as they were their only option for survival while the Islamist forces destroyed churches and killed minorities.

Due to the supply of small arms, ATGMs and some AD systems the islamists were at times able to seriously challenge the Assad regime and (for a time) took Christian towns and villages including Maaloula and Kessab and killed or forced the much of the Christian population to flee.

While the Assad regime eventually regained the upper hand and took back almost all regions except Idlib and border areas in the north the damage to the Christian community was done. A once large and ancient prewar community of 2M was gutted and less than 800,000 remain today.

Global population is expected to fall by the latter half of this century as global TFR falls⬇️replacement. This will mark the first global population decline since the Bubonic Plague Pandemic of the 1300s. This time due entirely to falling fertility rates.

https://t.co/VFZLVoqQ9A

According to the lancet study researchers estimate that by 2050, 155 of 204 (76%) countries+territories will have below replacement fertility. The number of countries and territories below replacement level is predicted to further increase to 198 of 204 (97%) by 2100.

The lancet study also predicts that while Sub Saharan African fertility rates will fall substantially (& most countries there will be below replacement by 2100) 50% of babies born on earth will be born there by 2100. This is up from around 25% of all babies born on earth today.

The study also looked at the pro-natal policies of various countries and found that they may help keep countries from falling to lowest low(below 1.3 TFR) fertility rates. Thus effective measures to slow the demographic collapse are incredibly important even if 2.1 unachievable.

Births in South Africa are falling fast. Would not be surprised in the slightest if TFR fell below replacement before 2030.

Dramatic declines in global fertility rates set to transform global demographic patterns over the rest of this century, a new GBD Capstone study suggests.

"Even if global fertility were to rebound tomorrow, the momentum toward degrowth, both demographic and otherwise, will necessitate addressing degrowth on a global scale this century." - The End of Unemployment

It is likely that the fertility rate for the entire 448 million string European Union fell to its lowest level on record (~1.41) in 2023. The economic, cultural, & national security ramifications of this will be absolutely enormous in the decades ahead.

Huge fall in Colombian births. Down by whopping 11% in 2023 according to preliminary data. Colombia’s fertility rate is now likely below 1.5. Needless to say it is the lowest TFR in their recorded history.

Preliminary numbers for January 2024 show the situation getting worse with a fall of 13.7% compared to January 2023.

Canary Islands really are going for the lowest TFR of any region in European recorded history. The TFR of the islands are already at East Asian levels of 0.80 or so. If they were to continue falling by another 10% they will be at the South Korean depths this year.

https://x.com/somelsomni/status/1770732920061284862?s=46&t=4B1VZvcCmqy_LsZnd1cuig

Sri Lanka just the latest South Asian country to hit low fertility. Sri Lanka on target to have a TFR of 1.5. India and Nepal are also below replacement. Bangladesh is not far behind. Huge societies getting old before they get rich. This is becoming the norm everywhere.

All of Southeast Asia marching towards below replacement fertility rates. Laos will likely hit this level in 2029/2030. Myanmar, Cambodia and East Timor around the same time. & with that the entire region will have slipped below 2.1.

The aging, aged, & super aged regions of South Korea:

The Faeroes and Greenland now both below replacement and reporting the lowest numbers of births in almost a century. These sparsely populated territories will likely struggle to attract enough immigrants after 2040 to avoid depopulation.

Danish realm in trouble…