Worthwhile interview on NPR about 2024 Dragon births in China. They interviewed a pregnant woman & one putting off childbearing. Govt is obviously trying to encourage former+discourage the latter. This year will show if real bounce back is possible.

https://www.npr.org/2024/02/21/1232827276/more-babies-are-usually-born-in-china-during-the-year-of-dragon-but-thats-changi

As of 2022 of all European countries tiny Iceland (population only~388,000) had the best native born fertility rate at 1.82 (which has fallen since then and is likely sub 1.6 now). The next highest are Bulgaria & Romania at the not fantastic 1.66 level (Romani TFR boosts it).

France, Romania and Bulgaria saw their TFR fall considerably in 2023. France is now below 1.7, Romania below 1.5, Czechia below 1.5, & Bulgaria (which was actually 1.78 in 2022) now at, a still very good but lower, 1.7.

Urban East Asia crushes fertility like no other. The wrong kind of high density. Instead of low rise garden style with a good work life balance it is often huge 50+ unit buildings coupled with an aggressive 60 plus hour workweek. It’s not a mystery why TFR is at historic lows.

https://x.com/nonebusinesshey/status/1762678077338108091?s=46&t=B6SI6l_x92DNtJLTXcHuzw

Numbers of foreign workers in Poland rapidly increasing. The number of foreigners registered in Poland’s social insurance system (known as ZUS) rose 6% last year to reach 1.13 million. Immigrants now make up almost 7% of all those in the system.

https://t.co/o9kjsUhV0Z

The national groups with the largest rise in numbers in 2023 were Belarusians (21,264) & Ukrainians (13,407). They were followed by Indians (4,588), Colombians (3,535), Nepalese (3,481), Filipinos (2,870), Uzbeks (2,026), Turks (1,783), Bangladeshis (1,770) & Indonesians (1,759).

The Dragon Year started in February 2024. If February/March sees the downturn continue or worsen this will be our first indication that China has moved away from Dragon Years being big birth years. An absolutely massive development & we will know one way or another pretty soon.

https://x.com/mark57758864153/status/1766411435582669176?s=46&t=4B1VZvcCmqy_LsZnd1cuig

Hungarian births have not exceeded 100,000 since 1997. Their Generation Z & Alpha are the smallest generations in Hungarian history. Even if Hungary manages to get TFR to 1.8 by 2030 and keep it there (a big if) births won’t exceed 100K again. For comparison there were 194,200 births in 1975 & more than 127,000 as recently as 1991.

The Hungarian government has also been extremely attentive to the issue which is why its inability to dramatically increase births has been such a frustration. However, under Orban TFR jumped from 1.23 in 2011 to 1.6 in 2021 before falling back to 1.5 in 2023.

Without the Hungarian government’s pronatalist policies of the 2010s the demographic situation would have almost certainly been even worse. The point of this thread is just to point out how difficult it is to turn births around even when you throw so much at the problem.

Most importantly it is not just a money issue but a cultural issue. Hungary has tried to create a more pro child culture but the urban (Budapest) youth never bought into Orban’s ideas. For such policies to work you need buy in across society to be truly successful.

Emigration of young Hungarian women (particularly those born in the early 1990s) also hurt Hungarian attempts to turn around the demographic situation greatly.

In the United States Generation Alpha (aka Polars born 2013-present) will likely be the first since Gen X to not have even one year of births above 4 million. In fact births were below 3.6 million last year for the first time since 1979 when the population was below 225 million.

Bad demographic news from New Zealand. Births fell to just 56,955 and the country saw a natural increase of only 19,071 which is the lowest since 1943. The total fertility rate also hit its lowest level in history, falling below 1.6.

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/lowest-natural-increase-in-80-years/

It is likely births in the European Union in 2023 fell much further (by up to another 4-5%). Would not be surprised if they come in at around 3.725M against almost 3.9M in 2022. US births would be only around 150,000 less despite having more than 110 million less people.

https://x.com/shifty_coffee/status/1766820455757799468?s=46&t=4B1VZvcCmqy_LsZnd1cuig

My guess is secular/irreligious Iranians have a TFR of ~1.0 while religious ones have a TFR of~2.0. While this Iranian opposition poll almost certainly overcounts the irreligious and Zoroastrians if it is in any way reflective of ground truth then Iran’s current TFR of sub 1.6 makes perfect sense+will sink further.

If the Iranian government were to collapse(not that likely in the near term IMHO as they have survived countless serious violent uprisings over the past decade) fertility rate would drop like a stone as it did in the post Soviet Union in the 1990s but in Iran would be ROK levels.

The Dragon Year started in February 2024. If February/March sees the downturn continue or worsen this will be our first indication that China has moved away from Dragon Years being big birth years. An absolutely massive development & we will know one way or another pretty soon.

https://x.com/mark57758864153/status/1766411435582669176?s=46&t=4B1VZvcCmqy_LsZnd1cuig

🇹🇼👶Births in Taiwan in February 2024 are down~4.5% over February 2023. Not a great start to the Dragon Year. During the last Dragon Year(2012)Taiwanese births jumped 10%! If we see the same trend in March then we know things changed a lot in just 12 years.

If culture has changed that much then improving rock bottom fertility rates in Singapore, Taiwan, & the People’s Republic of China may have just gotten much harder. It could also be a clearer indication that more women plan on having no children at all.

https://www.moi.gov.tw/cl.aspx?n=17437

Serbia has demographically settled at a pretty decent place in comparison with most of its neighbors with a stable fertility rate. The country will likely see ~60,000 births this year & maintain a TFR above 1.6. In the Balkans it is only outperformed by Montenegro & Bulgaria.

In 2023 Slovakia saw just 48,627 births. This is the lowest level of births ever recorded in the history of the country. As recently as 1979 the country saw more than twice as many births (100,240). The Slovak fertility rate also fell below 1.5.

https://slovak.statistics.sk/wps/portal/ext/products/informationmessages/inf_sprava_detail/!ut/p/z1/rZJfb5swFMU_TR4dX4P5k0egCSRFLAkhaXiZbHBaRjBpYHTpp5_pMmltVKZJ84sv8u-ie-45OMUPOJWsKx5ZW9SSHdX3PjW_rqy57brEAXBDHeaL-zgKvJnmJwbevQHbcPkL8K0NgXkUxcnWXunU0HD6Z79tWKCe4wRgG4NHzWv_APC-P1pPYb5xlv56QQlQ46b_BkiH59_iFKeZbE_tE97XvGFPSEhUyANiZTsCVdTnSm2jkwI1pzPrLiPoGtGW6gabC5JzHVn5QUeUaQwxZjPEITM5MTORT3j_-1NW5HgP3NSJltmIc1tDNDeoopmO7AnJDG7mghP-Uc7tvL0c-OQ4gGMh8QKnBa_GL1k1hrGhaZQSy9JMkxANzN7R4tvzc-oo2bVsxY8WP_zWPYKmVVoz9PYilf5WVEpoLqr68cwOhRKImjor2FGqomebtijZCCQrjyy_ILWhTIzge8le64614iiUpPS9CX6Q2MpjF3x_EhLqWh8B-97zFGBs7oxtpC-n9ArM4qXmTKjv3a2_zJTLnmbHoakBkCvg-U5ArVAZE_oGzJ0gWU9Wug6OfgUGNpcOJ_VvM_gm3ivvrE-9IxbedYV4wYnsE3XE8T9GI4De2eF0DJn7P0N9qpIkqWz9gvwdKtfTdfDqRqr-CcZdyOU!/dz/d5/L2dBISEvZ0FBIS9nQSEh/

Suicide levels(particularly for those under 65)are perhaps the most important metric for societal health. When the Soviet Union’s decline began suicide rates quickly climbed,they then fell for a bit due to optimism under early Gorbachev before skyrocketing as the Union collapsed.