By the 2040s China, Brazil, many states of India, & indeed all of the developed world+ a good portion of the developing, will be experiencing significant annual natural population decline. By then everyone will be taking about the need to tackle population policy. But if they wait until the 2030s or 2040s it will be far too late. The time is now:

For the record this graphic may be too optimistic. Many countries may enter into natural decline earlier.

👶🇺🇸Births to Nicaraguan mothers in the U.S. ⬆️ gigantic 88% year on year due to border surge in arrivals. Births to Ecuadorian mothers ⬆️~17%, to Peruvian mothers ⬆️~25%, Venezuelan mother births ⬆️~26%, births to Cuban born U.S. mothers ⬆️~28%. Births to US born mothers ⬇️~2.7%.

Births to Non Hispanic Whites in decline year on year. As are those for Native Americans, African Americans & Asian Americans. The massive influx of undocumented arrivals is what is almost certainly responsible for this surge in foreign born mother births. Due to the birthright citizenship law in the US all these children will be full US citizens even if their parents arrived via illegal channels.

The “Canada Scenario” is one under which massive levels of immigration are used to make up for falling births. All this accomplishes is kicking the can down the road and causing even more pension problems when said immigrants retire.

👶🇦🇱Albania just released Q3 demographic data & the picture is grim. Births from January to September 2023 come to only 16,353. This is a more than 9% decrease vs the same period in 2022. Albania needs to tackle both high emigration & low births or will face economic & demographic crisis.

South American fertility rates are in a serious & sustained decline & it’s not just Brazil. Colombia likely to have a TFR of~1.5 this year,Uruguay sub 1.3, Chile sub 1.3, Argentina~1.5, Brazil~1.55, & Peru well below replacement (they were still above replacement in late 2010s!).

Births in Belarus fell to just 73,906 in 2022. A huge fall from 2021’s 79,732 births. The TFR of Belarus could be as low as 1.25.

👶🐉🇰🇷 It’s incredible to me that even if 2024’s Year of the Dragon lifts South Korean births by 25% (it won’t come even close but bear with me) national TFR would still be ⬇️1.0 children per woman. It’s hard to see a way back for the ROK. Japan, Thailand (even the PRC) are in far better shape.

The graph below shows plummeting Mormon TFR in Utah by county:
Utah County: ~90% Mormon Cache County: 82% Mormon Davis County: 75% Mormon Washington County: 68% Mormon
Weber County: 53% Mormon
Salt Lake County: <50% Mormon

🇺🇸🇲🇽✝️ The secularization of American Latinos has been incredibly swift. In 2010 67% of US Latinos identified as Catholic & at least 84% as Christian. By 2022 only 43% identified as Catholics & only around 2/3rds identified as Christian.

⚫️ Among young American Latinos/Hispanics irreligiously is even more pronounced. Half (49%) of Latinos aged 18-29 are religiously unaffiliated. English dominant Latinos are also far more likely to be unaffiliated than those who are Spanish dominant. Not huge partisan difference though.

⚫️ This will have an obvious & continuing impact on American Hispanic fertility in the decades to come. US born Hispanics will see TFR fall to current Non Hispanic White levels of around 1.5-1.57. Foreign born Hispanic TFR will move to between 1.8-2.2

📎 Aaronal16

✝️ 🇺🇸 🐣 The impact of religion on fertility is amazing | Louise Perry

⬛️ Something I learnt today:

🔶️ American Catholics in general have a total fertility rate of 2.3.

🔶️ But American Catholics who attend Latin Mass have a TFR of 3.6! More than TWICE the national average!

📎 Louise Perry

High rates of childlessness does not necessarily equal lower fertility rates. Eastern Europe had much lower rates of childlessness than Western Europe yet places like Ireland (with one of the highest rates of childlessness in Europe)have some of Europe’s highest fertility rates.