Decent birth data is in for the first ten months of 2023 for Brazil. The picture is mixed. Births are up just 4,000 over the same period last year. So essentially flat. Think TFR is likely to be around 1.53 or so when all births finally reported. Better than many initially expected.

Note: births look very low for November and December because they have not all been reported yet. Ignore those months for now. We will likely have the final figure for 2023 Brazilian births by April or May of 2024.

🇯🇵👶Japan just reported the lowest TFR in its history. As low as 1.20 for 2023 (so around the same level as Italy) but far lower than the previous low of 1.25 recorded in 2005 & 2022. Japan (probably the most oft cited country for demographic decline) now losing almost 1,000,000 people a year in natural decline.

While Japanese TFR is unlikely (in my opinion at least) to ever hit South Korean or Taiwanese levels, it is likely to be at the level of Spain by 2026. Don’t see them bouncing back above 1.3 anytime before 2035 at the earliest (& then only with concerted effort).

Personally think the 2017 Census estimate will be correct about 2050. The United States is taking in huge numbers of undocumented immigrants & if they are counted properly & there is no mass deportation then the population will be far higher than 361M and likely at least 389M.

Ukraine’s demographic outlook has been devastated by the war. Currently more than four million Ukrainian refugees (mostly young+mostly women) are living in the EU alone. Most are unlikely to ever return as they put down roots, some marry locals & join the local labor markets.

This is a disaster for Ukraine’s future. Every young Ukrainian women who decides to make their home in Germany, France,Czechia etc permanent exacerbates the demographic headwinds Ukraine will face going forward. When you consider this movement involves millions it’s existential.

Ukrainian lawmakers have also started to worry about males. Some are aghast at the prospect of lowering the draft age from 27 to 25 (even with the exemption for fathers of 3+ children). The impact on future births has even been cited as an argument against lowering the conscription age: https://t.co/fhMy8RQTRV

If the Ukrainian age 18-30 cohort is substantially hollowed out by 2030 it is hard to see a meaningful economic & social recovery (not to mention the impact on Ukraine’s national security). But convincing the majority of Ukrainian refugees to return will be an uphill battle.

Well Charlie Munger may have been right short and medium term but was decisively wrong long term. Such a culture kills birth rates and does so incredibly efficiently. South Korea (& Japan & Taiwan & Singapore) already ruing their work till you drop, work über alles culture. https://x.com/qcompounding/status/1763153891653566801?s=46&t=4B1VZvcCmqy_LsZnd1cuig

The American occupation authorities under General Douglas MacArthur crushed all Japanese customs and habits they deemed to be “feudal”including public breastfeeding. Such policies discouraging Japanese traditional customs & values had a negative impact on fertility rates in postwar Japan.

Just a reminder for those who say populations in decline are not aware of the issue. The Japanese press has been warning of demographic decline since 1990. In that year the Japanese press reported the “1.57 shock” when TFR for 1989 was reported at just 1.57. It is 1.2 today.

Births in Spain dropped to just 322,075 in 2023. By far the lowest ever recorded. Even with Spain’s large levels of immigration (particularly from Latin America) this is unsustainable. The Canada of Europe (lowest low TFR and mass immigration). https://t.co/yBP3RZWaEJ

Austrian births fall to just 77,296 in 2023. This is the lowest registered number since 2009. TFR also on track to be the lowest in Austrian history at just 1.30. https://t.co/EdBp5YvTvo

France registered 678,000 births last year. That is the lowest level since the Second World War. January 2024 births are also down against January 2023 (but only by ~1.1%). TFR ~1.67 in 2023 & could go as low as 1.65 this year (still higher than US TFR).

https://t.co/E4FbxG2xjV

Romanian births fell to just 155,390 in 2023. That is the lowest number in ~145 years. The Romanian fertility rate fell to below 1.5 for the first time in a decade. https://insse.ro/cms/ro/tags/comunicat-miscarea-naturala-populatiei

Thai births down a whopping 10% in the January-February 2024 reporting period vs the same time last year! Thai TFR on track to be below 1.0 in 2024.
https://stat.bora.dopa.go.th/stat/statnew/statMONTH/statmonth/#/mainpage

Births in Belarus were as low as 65,000 in 2023. This is by far the lowest level ever recorded and represents a significant demographic capitulation likely driven, at least in part,by large levels of emigration amongst the country’s young (24-35) population.

https://euroradio.fm/en/another-anti-birth-rate-record-set-belarus

2023 was an awful year for Albania demographically. Births fell to just 22,210, the lowest ever recorded. This is also a drop of around 10% from 2022. 2023 TFR likely hit lowest low of just under 1.30.

https://t.co/r285ZLDBUB

In 2023 Belgium registered only 110,404 births. The lowest number since World War II. The drop was sharpest in immigrant heavy Brussels which was three times greater than the country as a whole. Births in the Flemish Region held up with only 2.3% drop.

https://t.co/99FsYhpGct

Netherlands appears to have started rebounding with births up 3+% in January 2024. After a 2023 which saw the second lowest number of births since 1900. Dutch TFR also fell to an all time low below 1.45 last year.

https://t.co/Uy50mtjj5x

Worthwhile interview on NPR about 2024 Dragon births in China. They interviewed a pregnant woman & one putting off childbearing. Govt is obviously trying to encourage former+discourage the latter. This year will show if real bounce back is possible.

https://www.npr.org/2024/02/21/1232827276/more-babies-are-usually-born-in-china-during-the-year-of-dragon-but-thats-changi