🇬🇷👶Like most countries reporting births in January so far Greece is up on 2023. Births for January 2024 are up more than 4% over January 2023. Expect we will see increases year on year in most countries in 2024 as 2023 was almost universally bad in developed countries for births.

This graphic clearly shows how demographics will drive major economic change. China will lose a whopping 216 million working-age people between now & 2050. Europe to lose well over 50 million, Japan & South Korea a combined 30 plus million, & Brazil+Chile 5 million. The big gains will be in the Indian subcontinent, parts of the Middle East, & Africa. Seismic change.

Uzbekistan just missed 3.5 TFR in 2023. If achieved it would have been one of the only countries in history to have gone from below replacement TFR back to 3.5 (the US managed it in the 1950s). Uzbekistan now seeing births fall. Likely to never hit a TFR of 3.5 again:

Uzbekistan births January 2024 -5.6%
January 2024 - 71,930 births
January 2023 - 76,211 births

Spanish TFR hot rock bottom 1.13 in 2023. Some regions (like the Canary Islands & Asturias) are approaching East Asian fertility levels. Spain does have significant immigration from Latin America but that is likely to dry up significantly in coming years.

Graphic courtesy of @birthgauge.

Latin American true mass migration to Europe will never become a thing. IMHO migration to the entire EU from Latam will probably be less than 7M from 2024-2050. After all it has been less than~4M 1970-2023(mostly to Spain)vs~50M to the USA during that same period. Sorry Italy.

Latin America offers the only large region that can provide Europe with potentially decent amounts of ethnically (Spanish and Italian) and religiously (Catholic) similar migrants.

Once believed that Italy could induce a large number of Italian-Brazilians and Italian-Argentines to immigrate to Italy. No longer hold that view. Hundreds of thousands over the next few decades perhaps but certainly not millions.

Bolivia may be on track to hit replacement TFR by 2030. By that time Paraguay, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Honduras will have hit replacement as well. & with that all of Latam will be below replacement.

Bolivia reported 199,263 birth registrations for 2023, down from 214,599 in 2022 and 304,895 ten years earlier. https://t.co/nPtaM4JWwZ

Not surprised but very discouraging and sad. US suicides topped 50,000 in 2023 to hit the highest level ever recorded. Just looking at the state of society truly not hard to see why. People are not hopeful for the future & this hits mental health and family formation.

https://t.co/al0yt48Yxy

While the total number of 2023 suicides in the United States is the highest ever recorded, the suicide rate is also the highest since the Great Depression & World War II. Rates have been ticking up since the Great Recession.

Decent birth data is in for the first ten months of 2023 for Brazil. The picture is mixed. Births are up just 4,000 over the same period last year. So essentially flat. Think TFR is likely to be around 1.53 or so when all births finally reported. Better than many initially expected.

Note: births look very low for November and December because they have not all been reported yet. Ignore those months for now. We will likely have the final figure for 2023 Brazilian births by April or May of 2024.

🇯🇵👶Japan just reported the lowest TFR in its history. As low as 1.20 for 2023 (so around the same level as Italy) but far lower than the previous low of 1.25 recorded in 2005 & 2022. Japan (probably the most oft cited country for demographic decline) now losing almost 1,000,000 people a year in natural decline.

While Japanese TFR is unlikely (in my opinion at least) to ever hit South Korean or Taiwanese levels, it is likely to be at the level of Spain by 2026. Don’t see them bouncing back above 1.3 anytime before 2035 at the earliest (& then only with concerted effort).

Personally think the 2017 Census estimate will be correct about 2050. The United States is taking in huge numbers of undocumented immigrants & if they are counted properly & there is no mass deportation then the population will be far higher than 361M and likely at least 389M.

Ukraine’s demographic outlook has been devastated by the war. Currently more than four million Ukrainian refugees (mostly young+mostly women) are living in the EU alone. Most are unlikely to ever return as they put down roots, some marry locals & join the local labor markets.

This is a disaster for Ukraine’s future. Every young Ukrainian women who decides to make their home in Germany, France,Czechia etc permanent exacerbates the demographic headwinds Ukraine will face going forward. When you consider this movement involves millions it’s existential.

Ukrainian lawmakers have also started to worry about males. Some are aghast at the prospect of lowering the draft age from 27 to 25 (even with the exemption for fathers of 3+ children). The impact on future births has even been cited as an argument against lowering the conscription age: https://t.co/fhMy8RQTRV

If the Ukrainian age 18-30 cohort is substantially hollowed out by 2030 it is hard to see a meaningful economic & social recovery (not to mention the impact on Ukraine’s national security). But convincing the majority of Ukrainian refugees to return will be an uphill battle.

Well Charlie Munger may have been right short and medium term but was decisively wrong long term. Such a culture kills birth rates and does so incredibly efficiently. South Korea (& Japan & Taiwan & Singapore) already ruing their work till you drop, work über alles culture. https://x.com/qcompounding/status/1763153891653566801?s=46&t=4B1VZvcCmqy_LsZnd1cuig

The American occupation authorities under General Douglas MacArthur crushed all Japanese customs and habits they deemed to be “feudal”including public breastfeeding. Such policies discouraging Japanese traditional customs & values had a negative impact on fertility rates in postwar Japan.

Just a reminder for those who say populations in decline are not aware of the issue. The Japanese press has been warning of demographic decline since 1990. In that year the Japanese press reported the “1.57 shock” when TFR for 1989 was reported at just 1.57. It is 1.2 today.

Births in Spain dropped to just 322,075 in 2023. By far the lowest ever recorded. Even with Spain’s large levels of immigration (particularly from Latin America) this is unsustainable. The Canada of Europe (lowest low TFR and mass immigration). https://t.co/yBP3RZWaEJ