It looks like there’s a clearer correlation btwn millennial homeownership rates and TFR in developed countries. France has the highest (1.68),followed by the US (1.625),UK(~1.45),UAE interesting as total population millennial homeownership & TFR is low but citizen high for both homeownership and TFR.

Projections show the percentage of childless women age 44 & older in the US may rise close to, or even exceed, the all time high reached by women born in the early 1900s, who faced numerous headwinds (coming of age as the did during World War I & the Spanish Flu pandemic, & going through their late 20s/early 30s during the Great Depression). The cohort born in the late 1980s is giving them a run for their money.

Yet another indication that the world’s largest economy may reach lowest low (sub 1.3) fertility by 2030. If that happens the economic, political and strategic ramifications will be enormous. Potential solutions to this crisis will reshape America one way or another.

It is critical to distinguish between so called “childfree women” & “childless women”. “Childfree women” are women age 40+ who don’t have kids & report having a zero-child ideal (or believe it’s not ideal to have children). They represent only 1-2% of American women.

Many on the right love to focus on “childfree” women as they think they are selfish & somehow behind the demographic crisis in many countries. This is simply not the case. The numbers of such women are very small in number compared to “childless”.

“Childless” are defined by the Institute of Family Studies as women 40+ who have zero children & report an above-zero fertility ideal. These are women who would have had kids but various factors hindered their ability to do so. “Childless” women make up a large 14%+ of American women over age 40.

Thus instead of wasting time focusing on the small number of women who wish to be “childfree”, commentators would be better served focusing on solutions to help women who don’t have (but want) children to actualize their goal. Unless the commentators desire is to drive clicks instead.

Finnish policymakers seem to have made the decision to go Canada lite to resolve their demographic crisis. Finnish TFR currently lowest low (below 1.3) & annual net immigration higher than annual births.

Situation in Spain, Greece, Romania, Italy completely untenable. All their populations currently in natural decline & this youth unemployment will do two things: keep the fertility rate low, encourage further emigration for young people. https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1754079137135022355?s=46&t=4B1VZvcCmqy_LsZnd1cuig

Ghana TFR probably ~3.5. It was ~5.0 in 2000, ~4.0 in 2015 & ~3.75 in 2018. By 2030 it will be ~2.75 at this rate & replacement before 2040 if smartphone proliferation+education improvement trends continue. Well ahead of all forecasts. Anyone saying Africa immune was foolish.

🔗 Link

No regions will be spared obviously. By 2050 the only countries with TFR ~3.0 or higher will be Niger (maybe), Mali, Israel, Somalia, Afghanistan (maybe), & maybe 4-5 others.

Armenian birth numbers out. Births fell by an extremely slight amount (0.2%) with TFR still above 1.75. Neighboring rival Azerbaijan will likely see births fall by more than 7% & TFR fall to below 1.6. One of a very small # of areas where Armenia is outperforming Azerbaijan.

France in 2023, despite its substantial fall in births and fertility rate, still enjoyed a higher TFR than the United States. France was on 1.675 while the US will probably end up on ~1.63. Immigrant birthrates are an equal factor in both countries.

High immigrant fertility (particularly amongst undocumented Latam immigrants)in the US is similar to high TFRs of immigrants to France from North Africa. & both France and the US see children of immigrants have their TFR levels converge rapidly with the non immigrant population.

Italy likely ran a deficit of 5.3% in 2023 & will run one of 4.3% in 2024. Italian bond yields are nearly 5%. Net public debt was 144% of GDP in 2022 & they have an absolutely terrible demographic situation. Italy could very easily produce a fiscal crisis that threatens the EU.

The Year of the Dragon 🐉began on February 10th 2024. If February, March & April birth numbers are not at least 7% above those of the same months of 2023 then I think we can obviously begin to conclude that the Dragon Year has lost a lot of cultural resonance for births compared to 2012 year when births⬆️10%+.

For the record I fully expect a 7-10% year on year⬆️in births from February 2024-January 2025 on average. If this doesn’t happen then we have witnessed a major cultural shift which will also be visible in the scale of the⬆️in births we are likely to see to Chinese Malaysians, Singaporeans, mainland Chinese etc.

Even the Year of the Dragon won’t help Malaysian Chinese avoid demographic death. Due to extremely low (sub 1.0) TFR and high emigration Chinese Malaysian births have plummeted from 114,000 during the 2000 Year of the Dragon to just 40,000 in 2022. A 10-15% boost in births this year won’t do much.

The Congressional Budget Office’s TFR forecasts for the United States are extremely optimistic. They see TFR increasing from this year onward and eventually returning to 1.7 by 2035. Based on current trends what is a bit more likely is TFR declining to ~1.5 and then gradually rising to ~1.6 by 2035.