Several Australian States posting big declines and Australian national TFR may have fallen to an all time low of sub 1.55 for the first time in history. The Anglosphere (long an over performer in developed world TFR) is now experiencing demographic crisis.

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Provisional births for the US for 2023 point to suboptimal levels. Final births will almost certainly hit their lowest level since 1980 (if not earlier). TFR likely to be 1.62 which is the lowest level ever recorded in American history.

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Blue states on demographic suicide watch.

Pretty substantial (& increasingly rare) demographic turnaround for Bangladesh. They are now back above replacement TFR and both urban and rural TFR have increased. Bangladesh has the same area as the US state of Iowa (population 3.2M) but has up to 170M people:

TFR increased in Bangladesh in 2022 according to SVRS 2022.

TFR 2022 (2021 in Brackets):
Urban: 1.71 (1.67)
Rural: 2.37 (2.18)
Overall: 2.20 (2.05)

If Bangladesh can keep TFR between 1.8-2.2 then they largely can likely maintain their population while avoiding rapid aging before getting rich as well as rapid depopulation, a major feat. However, expect emigration to continue apace until nominal GDP per capita ⬆️ $5,000.

Demographic decline often creates a cycle where the births of less children causes the infrastructure that supports future children to collapse. The Korea Institute of Child Care & Education reports that by 2028 a third of daycare centers & kindergartens will close due to the country’s low birthrate. https://t.co/zBoZxHjT1N

Greece had a very rough 2023 with by far the lowest number of births ever recorded. Just 72,244 births were reported preliminarily. There is good news however. January 2024 saw a 4% year on year⬆️in births. This may be a positive sign for other EU countries. https://www.ypes.gr/politikes-kai-draseis/statistika/statistika-2

This obviously impacts new family formation. I’ve talked to many people in their late 20s who say they don’t want to start a family until they can buy at least a two bedroom house/townhouse with a small yard. Mortgage rates 6.5%+, average house prices higher than ever.

It looks like there’s a clearer correlation btwn millennial homeownership rates and TFR in developed countries. France has the highest (1.68),followed by the US (1.625),UK(~1.45),UAE interesting as total population millennial homeownership & TFR is low but citizen high for both homeownership and TFR.

Projections show the percentage of childless women age 44 & older in the US may rise close to, or even exceed, the all time high reached by women born in the early 1900s, who faced numerous headwinds (coming of age as the did during World War I & the Spanish Flu pandemic, & going through their late 20s/early 30s during the Great Depression). The cohort born in the late 1980s is giving them a run for their money.

Yet another indication that the world’s largest economy may reach lowest low (sub 1.3) fertility by 2030. If that happens the economic, political and strategic ramifications will be enormous. Potential solutions to this crisis will reshape America one way or another.

It is critical to distinguish between so called “childfree women” & “childless women”. “Childfree women” are women age 40+ who don’t have kids & report having a zero-child ideal (or believe it’s not ideal to have children). They represent only 1-2% of American women.

Many on the right love to focus on “childfree” women as they think they are selfish & somehow behind the demographic crisis in many countries. This is simply not the case. The numbers of such women are very small in number compared to “childless”.

“Childless” are defined by the Institute of Family Studies as women 40+ who have zero children & report an above-zero fertility ideal. These are women who would have had kids but various factors hindered their ability to do so. “Childless” women make up a large 14%+ of American women over age 40.

Thus instead of wasting time focusing on the small number of women who wish to be “childfree”, commentators would be better served focusing on solutions to help women who don’t have (but want) children to actualize their goal. Unless the commentators desire is to drive clicks instead.

Finnish policymakers seem to have made the decision to go Canada lite to resolve their demographic crisis. Finnish TFR currently lowest low (below 1.3) & annual net immigration higher than annual births.

Situation in Spain, Greece, Romania, Italy completely untenable. All their populations currently in natural decline & this youth unemployment will do two things: keep the fertility rate low, encourage further emigration for young people. https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1754079137135022355?s=46&t=4B1VZvcCmqy_LsZnd1cuig