The War in Ukraine has cost both sides significant numbers of young men. Exactly the demographic neither country can afford to lose. In Russia (according to the sample below from Mediazona) ~14K aged 35 and below have been killed with 8,000 coming from the smallest cohort in modern Russian history. Many only sons lost.

In Ukraine, this sample of war dead shows that the dead tend to skew older. Most KIA seem to come from Ukraine’s last huge cohort born from 1971-1988 with comparatively few from the smallest cohort born 1996-2005. Still thousands from their smallest generation have also died. Unsustainable.

Massive birth rate declines across the American Southwest & California. The greatest drops in births were seen in Utah (-36.2%), Arizona (-36.1%) and Nevada (-34.0%) as well as California & Idaho. Utah, Idaho and Arizona have significant Mormon populations which have seen TFR⬇️.

Lithuania on a demographic trajectory to resemble Spain or Japan this year. Births declined again throughout 2023. Births now down 10.29% January-November 2023 vs last year. TFR may end up being sub 1.15. Births to be ~20K this year vs ~60K in 1986.

The birth decline of 2023 is picking up pace in Romania. In the January to September 2023 reporting period births are down more than 8.6% compared to ~7% in the January to August 2023 period against the same point last year. TFR likely to fall to 1.52 this year.

By the 2040s China, Brazil, many states of India, & indeed all of the developed world+ a good portion of the developing, will be experiencing significant annual natural population decline. By then everyone will be taking about the need to tackle population policy. But if they wait until the 2030s or 2040s it will be far too late. The time is now:

For the record this graphic may be too optimistic. Many countries may enter into natural decline earlier.

👶🇺🇸Births to Nicaraguan mothers in the U.S. ⬆️ gigantic 88% year on year due to border surge in arrivals. Births to Ecuadorian mothers ⬆️~17%, to Peruvian mothers ⬆️~25%, Venezuelan mother births ⬆️~26%, births to Cuban born U.S. mothers ⬆️~28%. Births to US born mothers ⬇️~2.7%.

Births to Non Hispanic Whites in decline year on year. As are those for Native Americans, African Americans & Asian Americans. The massive influx of undocumented arrivals is what is almost certainly responsible for this surge in foreign born mother births. Due to the birthright citizenship law in the US all these children will be full US citizens even if their parents arrived via illegal channels.

The “Canada Scenario” is one under which massive levels of immigration are used to make up for falling births. All this accomplishes is kicking the can down the road and causing even more pension problems when said immigrants retire.

👶🇦🇱Albania just released Q3 demographic data & the picture is grim. Births from January to September 2023 come to only 16,353. This is a more than 9% decrease vs the same period in 2022. Albania needs to tackle both high emigration & low births or will face economic & demographic crisis.

South American fertility rates are in a serious & sustained decline & it’s not just Brazil. Colombia likely to have a TFR of~1.5 this year,Uruguay sub 1.3, Chile sub 1.3, Argentina~1.5, Brazil~1.55, & Peru well below replacement (they were still above replacement in late 2010s!).

Births in Belarus fell to just 73,906 in 2022. A huge fall from 2021’s 79,732 births. The TFR of Belarus could be as low as 1.25.