Just a reminder that the updated UN "2022 Revision of World Population Prospects" information predicts global population will top out at ~10.4 billion in the 2080s. Nothing groundbreaking here but future revisions will likely have global population peaking even earlier & lower.

Many forecasts already have the peak even lower at less than 10 billion before 2080. The global demographic crisis is obviously already happening. Mitigation strategies were honestly needed yesterday but in today’s world of crisis the topic will not get the attention it needs.

Chechnya hit its demographic zenith in 2010 in terms of both TFR & total births. That year 37,753 children were born & TFR was 3.45. Since then both have fallen. TFR ~2.5 by 2021 & ~2.74 2022 & births 30,821. Ingushetia even worse, TFR high of 2.99 in 2010 & only 1.83 now.

However, Chechnya (with a small population of only ~1.5M) still has the highest TFR in the Russian Federation. & it should be mentioned that some demographers claim their population (& that of other Russian Kavkaz Republics) is inflated so TFR may be higher if population lower.

Polish births are now in through November of 2023. In the first eleven months of that year births fell by 10.5% or almost 30,000. Total 2023 births will end up below 300,000 for the first time since records began. Polish TFR will be lowest low~1.21. https://stat.gov.pl/en/topics/other-studies/informations-on-socio-economic-situation/statistical-bulletin-no-122023,4,158.html

If enough of a generation does not believe in core institutions or their leaders then trying to push them into military service can have disastrous consequences. I am not saying this would happen everywhere but it is certainly a significant risk that must be weighed heavily.

Ukraine 2023 births have been released and total 187,387, a drop of 11% from 2022:
2017 – 364K (-8%);
2018 – 335K (-8%);
2019 – 308K (-8%);
2020 – 299K (-3%);
2021 – 279K (-7%);
2022 – 209K(-24%);
2023- 187K (-11%). https://t.co/EXohytSUOx

So many women of childbearing age have left Ukraine that 187,000 births does not equate to an extremely low TFR. Truly doubt Ukrainian TFR is 0.70 as some claim. When accounting for the number of women of child bearing age in the country it is probably 1.2-1.3 or higher.

The perceived and real loss of status associated with becoming a parent in many Western countries sums up much of the fall in fertility we have seen. In much of the West & East Asia childbearing and raising is associated with losing status & falling behind in one’s career and personal goals. Changing this culture would be the challenge of a lifetime.

It took the United States 57 years for the population above age 65 to rise from 10% to 20% of the population. Latin America is on track to make that transition in just 28 years. When it does the implications for the world economy will be vast.

The curse of high expectations. Social media puts extremely high relationship standards out there. Many now expect a potential partner to have a very high salary, have the same political beliefs they do, similar habits, etc. As a consequence will leave many unhappy.
https://t.co/fkeqaMf0Bi

South Korea’s statistics office predicts that the country’s fertility rate will fall to just 0.65 in 2025. While there is likely to be a brief respite(with a modest year on year increase in births)in 2024 the demographic carnage is set to resume next year. https://t.co/Qf70XgKsWl

South Korea looks set to squander their last chance cohort (born 1991-1995). The youngest from this group are turning 29 this year with the oldest 33. There is really not the time needed for a significant cultural turnaround. Such shifts often take years to fully materialize.

Several Australian States posting big declines and Australian national TFR may have fallen to an all time low of sub 1.55 for the first time in history. The Anglosphere (long an over performer in developed world TFR) is now experiencing demographic crisis.

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Provisional births for the US for 2023 point to suboptimal levels. Final births will almost certainly hit their lowest level since 1980 (if not earlier). TFR likely to be 1.62 which is the lowest level ever recorded in American history.

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