Spanish births are now in for eleven months of 2023. In November births declined further dragging the year on year decline to 2.16%. Spain is now almost guaranteed to have a TFR for 2023 no higher than 1.15.

This is what a strong demographic comeback looks like (especially for the titular ethnic group). Kazakhstan went from just 1.8 TFR in 1999(1.69 ethnic Russian & 2.5 ethnic Kazakh) to 3.05 in 2022(3+ ethnic Kazakh & sub 1.3 ethnic Russians). Population 14.9M 1999 to 19.5M+ today.

Latin America is aging rapidly. Brazil, Chile, & Uruguay will face the first fiscal and societal reckoning from this. Colombia, Argentina, El Salvador, & many others are only a decade or so behind them. Now the media is really starting to take notice. https://t.co/064PTpjsHv

The global defense trend will be more money for defense but fewer soldiers. Very few of the future manpower goals of many of the countries on this list will be met. Finland, Poland, Japan, Spain, Russia, & China all face severe demographic headwinds & likely labor shortages.

This will impact not only the number of soldiers, sailors and airmen but also the number of people available for military industry. This will drive up costs & military budgets even further in the years ahead.

Brazil could see natural population decline by 2035. The country has had below replacement fertility for around two decades & likely is on ~1.5 TFR at present. Obviously, this development will have significant social, budgetary and economic impacts on Brazil.

The great US fertility divergence clear as day for all to see. Urban, liberal, West Coast TFR averaging ~1.45. Conservative, Suburban, Sun Belt America closer to ~1.67. Liberal/“Moderate” New England ~1.45. Ruby Red North Dakota to Texas belt ~1.80.

Many big largely liberal cities from San Francisco to New York to Los Angeles to Boston to Chicago are either near or will soon be flirting with 1.0 TFR. Such cities are unaffordable fertility destroying places.

Republicans also far more likely to be parents 2020 onward.

🇺🇸👶 There is nothing subtle about this map of white fertility rates. The Democratic strongholds are dark green, with far below replacement fertility. All the high birth areas are Republican states in the Midwest, Plains, South & Intermountain West.

A 2020 national exit poll by CNN showed that parents with children 18 and under – the younger, fertile group – 62% voted Republican while only 37% voted Democratic. These parents were 68% more likely to vote Red than Blue.

The total fertility for whites was estimated by the CDC to be 1.67. So, a little algebra shows us that the Red fertility is about 2.03 children per woman, and the Blue fertility rate (pre-pandemic) is about 1.21 children per woman.

📎 Labrador Skeptic

The EU is in very real existential trouble due to demographics. All EU labor markets rely on mass immigration (not a good answer). Skilled migrants already scarce. Ukraine gave them a temporary fill up but that will not last long. The EUs long goodbye will last from 2023-2037.

Brazilians are emigrating in record numbers to the US & Portugal. In 2021 more than 250K lived in Portugal (an ~23% annual increase). 1.8M Brazilians now live in the U.S.,⬆️20% from 2016. The # of Brazilians moving to places like Italy+Ireland is also ⬆️ sharply in recent years. https://t.co/1OMFDdCEID

Wang Mingyuan (an economist in Beijing who wrote a widely circulated article in China on the topic) predicts~50 million people aged 16-40 could be unemployed by 2028. This will put further massive downward pressure on family formation. https://t.co/4Rr3QFoHdJ

Just a reminder that the updated UN "2022 Revision of World Population Prospects" information predicts global population will top out at ~10.4 billion in the 2080s. Nothing groundbreaking here but future revisions will likely have global population peaking even earlier & lower.

Many forecasts already have the peak even lower at less than 10 billion before 2080. The global demographic crisis is obviously already happening. Mitigation strategies were honestly needed yesterday but in today’s world of crisis the topic will not get the attention it needs.

Chechnya hit its demographic zenith in 2010 in terms of both TFR & total births. That year 37,753 children were born & TFR was 3.45. Since then both have fallen. TFR ~2.5 by 2021 & ~2.74 2022 & births 30,821. Ingushetia even worse, TFR high of 2.99 in 2010 & only 1.83 now.

However, Chechnya (with a small population of only ~1.5M) still has the highest TFR in the Russian Federation. & it should be mentioned that some demographers claim their population (& that of other Russian Kavkaz Republics) is inflated so TFR may be higher if population lower.

Polish births are now in through November of 2023. In the first eleven months of that year births fell by 10.5% or almost 30,000. Total 2023 births will end up below 300,000 for the first time since records began. Polish TFR will be lowest low~1.21. https://stat.gov.pl/en/topics/other-studies/informations-on-socio-economic-situation/statistical-bulletin-no-122023,4,158.html