In Taiwan the number of new conscripts in 2022 totaled ~118,000, the lowest in nearly 10 years. Taiwan's over-18 population is expected to drop below 200,000 by 2026 & to ~166,000 by 2028, exacerbating TW's military recruitment problem. https://t.co/SwZMGgA2UU

Japan’s demographic crisis is hitting its plans to build a stronger military. The Japanese army, navy & air force have failed to reach recruitment targets for years, and the number of active personnel (~247,000) is nearly 10% lower than it was in 1990. https://t.co/Tbzaro09Wh

South Korean military is feeling the population crunch. Like Japan & Taiwan they are struggling to meet personnel targets despite cutting back their military 27.6% from 2002-2022. The number of commissioned officer positions has fallen from 30K in 2018 to 19K in 2022. https://t.co/5gzdhEPISI

The three colored regions on this graphic represent 50% of global GDP. A good chunk of the blue area (Germany, Northern Italy, Catalonia) & all of the yellow area (Eastern China, South Korea, Japan) have very low fertility rates as well as significant natural decline. Economic impacts will obviously be very significant.

Egyptian TFR looks certain to have dropped significantly in 2023. TFR was below 2.6 for the first time in modern history. While this is still a decent result for the region it has fallen from 3.0 in 2018 & ~3.5 in 2014.

Official China birth numbers are in. In 2023 the Chinese government reported just 9,020,000 births and 11,100,000 deaths. Biggest natural decline (2M+) since 1960 when China was experiencing famine. Obviously unofficial sources have it lower at ~8M births. https://t.co/OSYwcF83eZ

TFR is now certainly below 1.05. Even if this year’s auspicious Dragon Year leads to more births (an open question how many) it’s likely TFR will stay at lowest low(sub 1.3)even with a significant boost. Births will probably fall again in 2025 with TFR likely to return to ~1.0.

Despite the German government’s much touted Zeitenwende(plan to turn around & regrow the German Armed Forces) only~23,400 people applied to become soldiers in the first five months of 2023 ~7% less than during the same period of 2022. ⬆️money ⬇️ soldiers. https://t.co/r0eHFcTHEa

Estonia ended 2023 with just 10,721 births. Births fell ~7.5% compared to 2022. TFR dropped to ~1.3 (lowest low). Natural decline was more than 5,000. During 2023, 20,209 people immigrated to Estonia while 14,491 emigrated. https://www.stat.ee/en/news/1366491-people-estonias-population-grew-due-immigration-number-births-fell

Portugal was one of the only European countries to not see a birth decline in 2023. Births came in at 85,764. More than two thousand higher than in 2022 and a 2.5% increase. TFR almost back at 1.5.

Brazilian births in Portugal a big part of recovery.

https://www.sns.gov.pt/noticias/2024/01/12/mais-nascimentos-em-2023/

Spanish births are now in for eleven months of 2023. In November births declined further dragging the year on year decline to 2.16%. Spain is now almost guaranteed to have a TFR for 2023 no higher than 1.15.

This is what a strong demographic comeback looks like (especially for the titular ethnic group). Kazakhstan went from just 1.8 TFR in 1999(1.69 ethnic Russian & 2.5 ethnic Kazakh) to 3.05 in 2022(3+ ethnic Kazakh & sub 1.3 ethnic Russians). Population 14.9M 1999 to 19.5M+ today.

Latin America is aging rapidly. Brazil, Chile, & Uruguay will face the first fiscal and societal reckoning from this. Colombia, Argentina, El Salvador, & many others are only a decade or so behind them. Now the media is really starting to take notice. https://t.co/064PTpjsHv

The global defense trend will be more money for defense but fewer soldiers. Very few of the future manpower goals of many of the countries on this list will be met. Finland, Poland, Japan, Spain, Russia, & China all face severe demographic headwinds & likely labor shortages.

This will impact not only the number of soldiers, sailors and airmen but also the number of people available for military industry. This will drive up costs & military budgets even further in the years ahead.

Brazil could see natural population decline by 2035. The country has had below replacement fertility for around two decades & likely is on ~1.5 TFR at present. Obviously, this development will have significant social, budgetary and economic impacts on Brazil.

The great US fertility divergence clear as day for all to see. Urban, liberal, West Coast TFR averaging ~1.45. Conservative, Suburban, Sun Belt America closer to ~1.67. Liberal/“Moderate” New England ~1.45. Ruby Red North Dakota to Texas belt ~1.80.

Many big largely liberal cities from San Francisco to New York to Los Angeles to Boston to Chicago are either near or will soon be flirting with 1.0 TFR. Such cities are unaffordable fertility destroying places.

Republicans also far more likely to be parents 2020 onward.

🇺🇸👶 There is nothing subtle about this map of white fertility rates. The Democratic strongholds are dark green, with far below replacement fertility. All the high birth areas are Republican states in the Midwest, Plains, South & Intermountain West.

A 2020 national exit poll by CNN showed that parents with children 18 and under – the younger, fertile group – 62% voted Republican while only 37% voted Democratic. These parents were 68% more likely to vote Red than Blue.

The total fertility for whites was estimated by the CDC to be 1.67. So, a little algebra shows us that the Red fertility is about 2.03 children per woman, and the Blue fertility rate (pre-pandemic) is about 1.21 children per woman.

📎 Labrador Skeptic

The EU is in very real existential trouble due to demographics. All EU labor markets rely on mass immigration (not a good answer). Skilled migrants already scarce. Ukraine gave them a temporary fill up but that will not last long. The EUs long goodbye will last from 2023-2037.