The Netherlands likely saw just ~165,000 births in 2023. The lowest level since 1919. TFR dropped to a record low of sub 1.45. TFR of ethnic Dutch/Nederlanders likely lower than that for immigrants. Ethnic Dutch (& Frisian) population has⬇️from ~80% in 2010 to sub 75% now.

So in short the Netherlands just witnessed fewer briths last year than it has in more than a century despite having a population today that is well over twice as large (~18 million in 2024 vs ~6.8 million in 1919) as it was then.

This graphic from Libération does a great job illustrating the past century+ of the French demographic story. France will likely not regain the birth heights of the boom era or even the 2000s & early 2010s. Even immigrant TFR has fallen. Sub 700,000 births could become the norm.

🇹🇼👶Taiwan full birth numbers for 2023 are in! Births fell to 135,571, a drop of 2.46% against 2022 births. TFR likely ~0.85. Natural decline ~70,000. The last year of their last chance cohort is 1997 so time is running out for a significant turnaround in the short to mid term.

House prices not the determining factor behind falling TFR but are certainly a significant contributing one. Lithuania saw TFR fall to an all time low in 2023, Estonia fell ~8% to ~1.3. But worth mentioning Greece (which saw house prices+rents ⬇️) saw births fall 6+%.

This will be a momentous year demographically if births don’t rise dramatically (by which I mean by ~10% or more) in the PRC, Taiwan, & Singapore. Last Dragon Year (2012) births got a substantial boost. We will soon find out if the year still resonates for ⬆️ births.

By the way even if births increase by 10% for ethnic Chinese in all three of these countries it will still be below 1.0 in Taiwan, around 1.0 for ethnic Chinese Malaysians, & just above 1.0 in the PRC. So not a game changer (especially if births just drop back in 2025).

During 1980 the Mariel boatlift led to 125,000 Cubans entering the U.S. in just six months. It was considered a massive influx. In December of 2023 well over twice that many undocumented migrants entered the U.S. at the Southern Border in a single month.

https://t.co/bVVNpEzPm1

Hungary’s demographic road ahead will be even more challenging as the 1998-2023 cohort saw less than 100,000 annual births every year. Even if Hungary could get TFR up to 1.8 by 2030 births would still be around the same level as 2023. This is unfortunate.

Unlike India we only need to feed 336 million and can export A LoT of food. US is incredibly blessed. In croplands, natural resources, population size (particularly young population size),& geography which protects us from foes. Yet our policymakers squander these advantages.

Many seem to be taking the 1.38 DPRK fertility rate as fact. Yes, they were likely exaggerating the 1.8 TFR but the 1.38 came from the South Korean Central Bank & was gleaned from defectors. Could be true but I would take it with a grain of salt: https://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-fertility-rate-plummets-165726405.html

The recruitment crisis in the west is getting worse & worse. UK is scrapping Naval assets early (like the two frigates mentioned in this article) as they miss recruitment targets. Demographic decline in Germany, France, Italy etc means crisis headed their way too. https://t.co/W9CPbjQaMZ

As labor becomes extremely tight across Europe various EU militaries without conscription will find it harder and harder to meet minimum recruitment targets. The demographic crisis could become a national security one as well.

Top source countries for approved US naturalizations shows us many are from countries will rapidly falling fertility. Cuba, Colombia, Jamaica, El Salvador, & China are all far below replacement. Philippines & Vietnam are slightly below but have high demand from other Anglo countries.

Vietnamese are highly sought migrants by Australia, the U.S., Japan and South Korea. With their economic and wage growth as well as slightly falling TFR, far fewer are likely to want to emigrate by 2030.

Massive demographic change in the United States Armed Forces. Among 2023 new recruits Non Hispanic Whites are now 44% (down from 56.4% in 2018), African Americans are 24% (up from 20% in 2018), Hispanics now at 24% (up from 17% in 2018).

In Taiwan the number of new conscripts in 2022 totaled ~118,000, the lowest in nearly 10 years. Taiwan's over-18 population is expected to drop below 200,000 by 2026 & to ~166,000 by 2028, exacerbating TW's military recruitment problem. https://t.co/SwZMGgA2UU

Japan’s demographic crisis is hitting its plans to build a stronger military. The Japanese army, navy & air force have failed to reach recruitment targets for years, and the number of active personnel (~247,000) is nearly 10% lower than it was in 1990. https://t.co/Tbzaro09Wh

South Korean military is feeling the population crunch. Like Japan & Taiwan they are struggling to meet personnel targets despite cutting back their military 27.6% from 2002-2022. The number of commissioned officer positions has fallen from 30K in 2018 to 19K in 2022. https://t.co/5gzdhEPISI

The three colored regions on this graphic represent 50% of global GDP. A good chunk of the blue area (Germany, Northern Italy, Catalonia) & all of the yellow area (Eastern China, South Korea, Japan) have very low fertility rates as well as significant natural decline. Economic impacts will obviously be very significant.

Egyptian TFR looks certain to have dropped significantly in 2023. TFR was below 2.6 for the first time in modern history. While this is still a decent result for the region it has fallen from 3.0 in 2018 & ~3.5 in 2014.

Official China birth numbers are in. In 2023 the Chinese government reported just 9,020,000 births and 11,100,000 deaths. Biggest natural decline (2M+) since 1960 when China was experiencing famine. Obviously unofficial sources have it lower at ~8M births. https://t.co/OSYwcF83eZ

TFR is now certainly below 1.05. Even if this year’s auspicious Dragon Year leads to more births (an open question how many) it’s likely TFR will stay at lowest low(sub 1.3)even with a significant boost. Births will probably fall again in 2025 with TFR likely to return to ~1.0.