US destined for a TFR of ~1.62 for 2023. Lowest fertility rate ever recorded. Births also on track to be the fewest since 1980 when the U.S. was home to only 227 million people as opposed to 334 million plus today. Hispanics only major group with an increase in births.

Vermont TFR likely to be lowest low (~1.3 or lower) for 2023, Alaska falls to 1.8, Hawaii falls to 1.6. Tennessee stays close to 1.8.

South Korea looks set to squander their last chance cohort (born 1991-1995). The youngest from this group are turning 29 this year with the oldest 33. There is really not the time needed for a significant cultural turnaround. Such shifts often take years to fully materialize.

Impossible to return to marriage+family formation habits of 1940s-70s without a cultural counterrevolution. However, mitigation is possible. By encouraging those communities that want to have many children to have their ideal number the US could keep TFR above 1.5 indefinitely.

Btw the TFR estimates here are also overly optimistic. Colombia, Argentina, Brazil etc all lower. By 2050 these three countries alone will probably be seeking 600,000 migrants from neighboring countries annually. This will hollow out Paraguay & Bolivia incredibly quickly.

Vietnam is one of the strongest countries demographically in Southeast Asia & a major source of immigrants for the US, Australia, Japan, Canada, Taiwan, South Korea & Taiwan. While 1.95 is still very healthy a fall to 1.7 or below would be disastrous for them & the wider region.

In addition, numerous neighbors (from Taiwan to Japan to Korea) have relocated manufacturing and jobs to Vietnam. If skilled labor becomes scarcer and more expensive this would have profound long term supply chain consequences.

Cash “Baby Bonuses” have an absolutely terrible track record. South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, & Taiwan have spent billions for no significant result. In Europe such policies have also been mostly ineffective. Hard to solve a cultural problem with cash. https://t.co/AE9tu1O7vs

🇰🇿👶 Not a bad result for Kazakhstan in 2023. Births⬇️3.3% but TFR still maintained at ~3.0. Kazakhstan enters 2024 as a fairly prosperous nation of 20 million with enviable demographics, a GDP per capita (PPP) of $33,120 & has seen the titular nation recover to be 70% of population.

Kazakhstan has also repatriated 1,128,000 ethnic Kazakhs from neighboring countries since 1991. Remember that in 1897 83% of the territory was ethnic Kazakh then it fell to just 37% in the 1930s after the Asharshylyk (Goloshchyokin genocide) & is now 70% today.

The West cannot replicate Israeli TFR levels (for now) for 2 main reasons:

1.) Strong nationalism (a major factor boosting secular Israeli TFR) is simply not tolerated by most western elites.
2.) Israel has a huge high TFR ultra religious minority of 13.5% of total population.

Thats why I’ve said demographics Twitter’s (and Telegram’s) obsession with learning lessons from Israel makes little sense. Israel has a national ideology that closely ties nationalism to pronatalism. Not one western country truly has that. Amish, Laestadians etc also less than 1% pop in most.

Demographic recovery in the West is only likely with some type of cultural counterrevolution which brings family back to the center of society.

🇷🇺👶 Russia births have been much better than expected with a drop of only 3% for the first 10 months of 2023. Births for 2023 are likely to be above 1,250,000 & will probably be between 1,180,000 & 1,220,000 next year. Not great but certainly not terrible.

🇨🇳👶 China has a last chance cohort born from 1985-1994. The oldest are turning 39 this year & the youngest 30. If there is not a huge rebound in births in 2024 for the Dragon Year (as there was in 2012 Dragon Year) then it seems doubtful China will maximize this cohorts potential.

Jakarta leading Indonesian TFR lower. Though at a far less dramatic rate than Manila is for the Philippines. Indonesia may still be above 2.0 nationally & Jakarta likely above 1.6. Still, a warning of things to come. Indonesia though has a social movement against low TFR.

The Netherlands likely saw just ~165,000 births in 2023. The lowest level since 1919. TFR dropped to a record low of sub 1.45. TFR of ethnic Dutch/Nederlanders likely lower than that for immigrants. Ethnic Dutch (& Frisian) population has⬇️from ~80% in 2010 to sub 75% now.

So in short the Netherlands just witnessed fewer briths last year than it has in more than a century despite having a population today that is well over twice as large (~18 million in 2024 vs ~6.8 million in 1919) as it was then.

This graphic from Libération does a great job illustrating the past century+ of the French demographic story. France will likely not regain the birth heights of the boom era or even the 2000s & early 2010s. Even immigrant TFR has fallen. Sub 700,000 births could become the norm.

🇹🇼👶Taiwan full birth numbers for 2023 are in! Births fell to 135,571, a drop of 2.46% against 2022 births. TFR likely ~0.85. Natural decline ~70,000. The last year of their last chance cohort is 1997 so time is running out for a significant turnaround in the short to mid term.

House prices not the determining factor behind falling TFR but are certainly a significant contributing one. Lithuania saw TFR fall to an all time low in 2023, Estonia fell ~8% to ~1.3. But worth mentioning Greece (which saw house prices+rents ⬇️) saw births fall 6+%.

This will be a momentous year demographically if births don’t rise dramatically (by which I mean by ~10% or more) in the PRC, Taiwan, & Singapore. Last Dragon Year (2012) births got a substantial boost. We will soon find out if the year still resonates for ⬆️ births.

By the way even if births increase by 10% for ethnic Chinese in all three of these countries it will still be below 1.0 in Taiwan, around 1.0 for ethnic Chinese Malaysians, & just above 1.0 in the PRC. So not a game changer (especially if births just drop back in 2025).