The European Union & the United States are diverging sharply demographically. The EU has the absolutely massive 1959-1969 cohort beginning to enter retirement now being replaced by the much smaller 2000-2010 cohort. In the US boomers being replaced in labor force by huge Gen Z.

Hard to see the EU having anywhere near the level of influence they have today into the 2030s. Many industries look set to move away & it is unclear if the EU will have the labor & resources for their massive planned “green transition” of the entire economy & energy grid.

Bear in mind that South Korea, Japan, Taiwan & eventually China will have an absolutely enormous demand for Southeast Asian labor by 2030 with the first three alone likely looking for 600,000 annually from then onwards. Southeast Asians also have many other potential immigration destinations (Filipinos have Canada & the US, Vietnamese the US & Australia etc).

Some Southeast Asian countries are already immigration destinations in their own right. Thailand (with a TFR of sub 1.1) already hosts hundreds of thousands of Burmese, Cambodian, & Laotian labor migrants as well as tens of thousands of other Southeast Asian immigrants.

South Korea, Taiwan & Japan in particular will face an acute labor shortage starting in 2030 which will dramatically undermine their respective economies. This will obviously have significant global knock on effects.

US destined for a TFR of ~1.62 for 2023. Lowest fertility rate ever recorded. Births also on track to be the fewest since 1980 when the U.S. was home to only 227 million people as opposed to 334 million plus today. Hispanics only major group with an increase in births.

Vermont TFR likely to be lowest low (~1.3 or lower) for 2023, Alaska falls to 1.8, Hawaii falls to 1.6. Tennessee stays close to 1.8.

South Korea looks set to squander their last chance cohort (born 1991-1995). The youngest from this group are turning 29 this year with the oldest 33. There is really not the time needed for a significant cultural turnaround. Such shifts often take years to fully materialize.

Impossible to return to marriage+family formation habits of 1940s-70s without a cultural counterrevolution. However, mitigation is possible. By encouraging those communities that want to have many children to have their ideal number the US could keep TFR above 1.5 indefinitely.

Btw the TFR estimates here are also overly optimistic. Colombia, Argentina, Brazil etc all lower. By 2050 these three countries alone will probably be seeking 600,000 migrants from neighboring countries annually. This will hollow out Paraguay & Bolivia incredibly quickly.

Vietnam is one of the strongest countries demographically in Southeast Asia & a major source of immigrants for the US, Australia, Japan, Canada, Taiwan, South Korea & Taiwan. While 1.95 is still very healthy a fall to 1.7 or below would be disastrous for them & the wider region.

In addition, numerous neighbors (from Taiwan to Japan to Korea) have relocated manufacturing and jobs to Vietnam. If skilled labor becomes scarcer and more expensive this would have profound long term supply chain consequences.

Cash “Baby Bonuses” have an absolutely terrible track record. South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, & Taiwan have spent billions for no significant result. In Europe such policies have also been mostly ineffective. Hard to solve a cultural problem with cash. https://t.co/AE9tu1O7vs

🇰🇿👶 Not a bad result for Kazakhstan in 2023. Births⬇️3.3% but TFR still maintained at ~3.0. Kazakhstan enters 2024 as a fairly prosperous nation of 20 million with enviable demographics, a GDP per capita (PPP) of $33,120 & has seen the titular nation recover to be 70% of population.

Kazakhstan has also repatriated 1,128,000 ethnic Kazakhs from neighboring countries since 1991. Remember that in 1897 83% of the territory was ethnic Kazakh then it fell to just 37% in the 1930s after the Asharshylyk (Goloshchyokin genocide) & is now 70% today.

The West cannot replicate Israeli TFR levels (for now) for 2 main reasons:

1.) Strong nationalism (a major factor boosting secular Israeli TFR) is simply not tolerated by most western elites.
2.) Israel has a huge high TFR ultra religious minority of 13.5% of total population.

Thats why I’ve said demographics Twitter’s (and Telegram’s) obsession with learning lessons from Israel makes little sense. Israel has a national ideology that closely ties nationalism to pronatalism. Not one western country truly has that. Amish, Laestadians etc also less than 1% pop in most.

Demographic recovery in the West is only likely with some type of cultural counterrevolution which brings family back to the center of society.

🇷🇺👶 Russia births have been much better than expected with a drop of only 3% for the first 10 months of 2023. Births for 2023 are likely to be above 1,250,000 & will probably be between 1,180,000 & 1,220,000 next year. Not great but certainly not terrible.