🇩🇪👶Germany may see less than 700,000 births for 2023 for the first time since 2013. The fertility rate is also likely to sink to below 1.4 for the first time since 2011. Ethnic German births likely to be ~75% of the total & ethnic German TFR will be lower than national TFR.

Very interesting Destatis chart shows the population pyramid of Germany with the population with & without migrant background. As you can see those without a migrant background have an absolutely massive percentage above age 50.

This latest German population pyramid shows that both foreigners & those with a migrant background (many Europeans amongst them btw) have a much younger and healthier pyramid than the much larger ethnic German population. Ethnic Germans largest single cohort is currently 50-65.

But you can also see that both foreigners and Germans with a migrant background are having fewer children which is something witnessed in most EU countries. Not only is titular nation TFR falling but migrant TFR as well (in many cases plummeting even further).

Also side note: Ethnic German births in Germany may be as low as 64% of total births this year.

If this report is true and births in the PRC come in at only ~8M for 2023 then (even with a substantial Dragon Year boost) we are probably looking at a maximum of 10-11.5M births and possibly as low as 9.8M in 2024. This is a very big deal.

https://t.co/rUFPCLnQRZ

The European Union & the United States are diverging sharply demographically. The EU has the absolutely massive 1959-1969 cohort beginning to enter retirement now being replaced by the much smaller 2000-2010 cohort. In the US boomers being replaced in labor force by huge Gen Z.

Hard to see the EU having anywhere near the level of influence they have today into the 2030s. Many industries look set to move away & it is unclear if the EU will have the labor & resources for their massive planned “green transition” of the entire economy & energy grid.

Bear in mind that South Korea, Japan, Taiwan & eventually China will have an absolutely enormous demand for Southeast Asian labor by 2030 with the first three alone likely looking for 600,000 annually from then onwards. Southeast Asians also have many other potential immigration destinations (Filipinos have Canada & the US, Vietnamese the US & Australia etc).

Some Southeast Asian countries are already immigration destinations in their own right. Thailand (with a TFR of sub 1.1) already hosts hundreds of thousands of Burmese, Cambodian, & Laotian labor migrants as well as tens of thousands of other Southeast Asian immigrants.

South Korea, Taiwan & Japan in particular will face an acute labor shortage starting in 2030 which will dramatically undermine their respective economies. This will obviously have significant global knock on effects.

US destined for a TFR of ~1.62 for 2023. Lowest fertility rate ever recorded. Births also on track to be the fewest since 1980 when the U.S. was home to only 227 million people as opposed to 334 million plus today. Hispanics only major group with an increase in births.

Vermont TFR likely to be lowest low (~1.3 or lower) for 2023, Alaska falls to 1.8, Hawaii falls to 1.6. Tennessee stays close to 1.8.

South Korea looks set to squander their last chance cohort (born 1991-1995). The youngest from this group are turning 29 this year with the oldest 33. There is really not the time needed for a significant cultural turnaround. Such shifts often take years to fully materialize.

Impossible to return to marriage+family formation habits of 1940s-70s without a cultural counterrevolution. However, mitigation is possible. By encouraging those communities that want to have many children to have their ideal number the US could keep TFR above 1.5 indefinitely.

Btw the TFR estimates here are also overly optimistic. Colombia, Argentina, Brazil etc all lower. By 2050 these three countries alone will probably be seeking 600,000 migrants from neighboring countries annually. This will hollow out Paraguay & Bolivia incredibly quickly.

Vietnam is one of the strongest countries demographically in Southeast Asia & a major source of immigrants for the US, Australia, Japan, Canada, Taiwan, South Korea & Taiwan. While 1.95 is still very healthy a fall to 1.7 or below would be disastrous for them & the wider region.

In addition, numerous neighbors (from Taiwan to Japan to Korea) have relocated manufacturing and jobs to Vietnam. If skilled labor becomes scarcer and more expensive this would have profound long term supply chain consequences.

Cash “Baby Bonuses” have an absolutely terrible track record. South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, & Taiwan have spent billions for no significant result. In Europe such policies have also been mostly ineffective. Hard to solve a cultural problem with cash. https://t.co/AE9tu1O7vs