Demographics Now and Then
Taiwan has had another mediocre demographic performance in 2023 (through not as bad as it could have been). Even if births surge up to 15% in 2024 TFR could stay⬇️1.0. Terrible position to be in. Taiwan (along with South Korea) on the precipice of total…
It is highly doubtful that Taiwan will see a birth boom of more than 10% in the Year of the Dragon. Births will increase sure, but by how much is the question. Looking at Taiwanese Dragon year birth increases year on year in 2000 (~8%) and 2012 (~15%) gives us some clue. The increase looks set to be slightly less dramatic than in 2012 but even if they came close to repeating that feat TFR would still stay below 1.0.
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🇧🇴👶Bolivia (the last high TFR country in Latin America) has seen its TFR fall to just 2.5. All of Latin America looks set to fall below replacement fertility by 2030. Paraguay, Bolivia & Guatemala may even take the plunge earlier than that.
Interestingly, Mennonites are responsible for up to 3% of total Bolivian births now. They demographically win huge wherever they go.
Interestingly, Mennonites are responsible for up to 3% of total Bolivian births now. They demographically win huge wherever they go.
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🇫🇮👶Finnish births pulled out of their nosedive in November. Now births from January-November of 2023 are down only ~4% compared to the same points last year as opposed to a 4.76% drop during the first eight months of 2023. Finland still likely have a lowest low TFR below 1.3.
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The story that “Ukraine now has world’s lowest TFR” is back again. Ukraine claimed ~ 195,000 births last year. When taking into account the millions of women aged 18-45 who have left the country their TFR was above 0.90. This year likely also above 0.70.
Ukrainian TFR within Ukraine may be closer to~1.1-1.2. Still far lower than the 1.4 TFR of the Russian Federation for 2022. Could Ukrainian TFR be as low as 0.70 for 2023 if the entire female population that fled Ukraine is included? Possibly. Just don’t find that likely but for 2023 sub 1.0 for all Ukrainian women in both Ukraine and spread across Europe certainly could be that low.
Ukrainian TFR within Ukraine may be closer to~1.1-1.2. Still far lower than the 1.4 TFR of the Russian Federation for 2022. Could Ukrainian TFR be as low as 0.70 for 2023 if the entire female population that fled Ukraine is included? Possibly. Just don’t find that likely but for 2023 sub 1.0 for all Ukrainian women in both Ukraine and spread across Europe certainly could be that low.
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Demographics Now and Then
The story that “Ukraine now has world’s lowest TFR” is back again. Ukraine claimed ~ 195,000 births last year. When taking into account the millions of women aged 18-45 who have left the country their TFR was above 0.90. This year likely also above 0.70.…
Remember of the 6.3 million plus refugees who left Ukraine during 2022 & have not yet returned (according to the United Nations Refugee Agency) more than half are women & a third are minors. So 195,000 2022 births with a population of women 3M+ smaller than 2021 should be higher than 0.90. Source for chart in first post: https://english.elpais.com/international/2023-12-11/ukraines-demographic-drain-puts-its-post-war-recovery-at-risk.html
EL PAÍS English
Ukraine’s demographic drain puts its post-war recovery at risk
Millions of Ukrainian women and children have moved overseas and do not plan to return to a country that has lost over 30% of its population since independence in 1991
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Demographics Now and Then
Remember of the 6.3 million plus refugees who left Ukraine during 2022 & have not yet returned (according to the United Nations Refugee Agency) more than half are women & a third are minors. So 195,000 2022 births with a population of women 3M+ smaller than…
In any case Ukraine faces a catastrophic demographic situation whether TFR is sub 1.0 or 1.2. It is unclear when (if ever) the 3M plus Ukrainian women who fled will return. There is a massive gender imbalance in the country and things may deteriorate further in 2024.
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Only way to change culture & make pronatalism a societal norm again is by convincing most Middle+Upper Middle Class couples that having two plus kids is essential to their sense of fulfillment. An extremely tough sell as many feel they can reach peak fulfillment without this.
Decades of popular culture have convinced 20-40% of the Middle Class that the road to happiness does not depend on children. Many also see older folks with kids & don’t buy the argument that kids will take care of them & not just dump them in a care home when they age.
Undoing this damage will take decades of hard work but many have already begun. Many high profile individuals are aggressive pronatalists but sadly they turn off as many as they convince. The road ahead will not be easy but collapse is far from inevitable.
Decades of popular culture have convinced 20-40% of the Middle Class that the road to happiness does not depend on children. Many also see older folks with kids & don’t buy the argument that kids will take care of them & not just dump them in a care home when they age.
Undoing this damage will take decades of hard work but many have already begun. Many high profile individuals are aggressive pronatalists but sadly they turn off as many as they convince. The road ahead will not be easy but collapse is far from inevitable.
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Demographics Now and Then
TFR in Afro Caribbean countries has absolutely cratered. Jamaica now has a TFR of sub 1.4. Bahamas the same. Barbados even lower at ~1.3, Dominica likely just as low if not lower (births have collapsed & TFR likely 1.3). USVI has also seen births collapse.…
Many Caribbean countries now rely of foreign labor (often from Haiti). But Haitian TFR has also declined from 4.39 in 2000 to sub 3.5 in 2010 to 2.81 in 2021. Haitian TFR will likely be at replacement by 2030.
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Demographics Now and Then
Remember that the United States is heading for a TFR of sub 1.63 this year (the lowest ever recorded). If the trends in the above graphic hold expect TFR to be sub 1.5 by 2026 & as low as 1.3 by 2030 with deep economic+social consequences from pensions to…
However, know that this is far from a foregone conclusion. American young people want more not less children. While the vast majority will come nowhere near the desired TFR of 2.5, increasing TFR from ~1.62 to 1.8 is well within the realm of the possible.
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Hungary has now recorded births for the first eleven months of 2023 & the country has witnessed a birth decline of ~3% from 2023. Hungarian TFR may even fall to sub 1.5. This is very disheartening as this fall comes in spite of unprecedented pronatalist policy.
The “two speed Hungary” likely explains a lot. TFR in Budapest is very low and many young people there are far less interested in having large families than those in the rest of the country who take Orban up on his pronatalist incentives.
The “two speed Hungary” likely explains a lot. TFR in Budapest is very low and many young people there are far less interested in having large families than those in the rest of the country who take Orban up on his pronatalist incentives.
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Demographics Now and Then
🇩🇪👶Germany may see less than 700,000 births for 2023 for the first time since 2013. The fertility rate is also likely to sink to below 1.4 for the first time since 2011. Ethnic German births likely to be ~75% of the total & ethnic German TFR will be lower…
Very interesting Destatis chart shows the population pyramid of Germany with the population with & without migrant background. As you can see those without a migrant background have an absolutely massive percentage above age 50.
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This latest German population pyramid shows that both foreigners & those with a migrant background (many Europeans amongst them btw) have a much younger and healthier pyramid than the much larger ethnic German population. Ethnic Germans largest single cohort is currently 50-65.
But you can also see that both foreigners and Germans with a migrant background are having fewer children which is something witnessed in most EU countries. Not only is titular nation TFR falling but migrant TFR as well (in many cases plummeting even further).
Also side note: Ethnic German births in Germany may be as low as 64% of total births this year.
But you can also see that both foreigners and Germans with a migrant background are having fewer children which is something witnessed in most EU countries. Not only is titular nation TFR falling but migrant TFR as well (in many cases plummeting even further).
Also side note: Ethnic German births in Germany may be as low as 64% of total births this year.
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If this report is true and births in the PRC come in at only ~8M for 2023 then (even with a substantial Dragon Year boost) we are probably looking at a maximum of 10-11.5M births and possibly as low as 9.8M in 2024. This is a very big deal.
https://t.co/rUFPCLnQRZ
https://t.co/rUFPCLnQRZ
Radio Free Asia
China deletes leaked stats showing plunging birth rate for 2023
Report said China’s population had fallen by 3.1 million this year.
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Of the worlds ten largest economies SIX (China, Germany, Japan, Italy, Brazil & Canada) are facing degrees of demographic crisis. Falling fertility and it’s impact on our societies should be THE topic of 2024. Wishing all of you a safe, healthy, happy & prosperous New Year!
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