Demographically Serbia is performing very well by European standards. Serbian TFR was likely above 1.65 in 2022 and births in Jan-February 2023 are down only 1% on last years numbers. If this keeps up Serbiaโs TFR may end up ~1.68 for 2023. Huge turnaround (TFR sub 1.5 in 2018). Also this is far higher than Albania TFR (~1.3) & that of the federation of BiH (~1.2).
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Demographics Now and Then
Demographically Serbia is performing very well by European standards. Serbian TFR was likely above 1.65 in 2022 and births in Jan-February 2023 are down only 1% on last years numbers. If this keeps up Serbiaโs TFR may end up ~1.68 for 2023. Huge turnaroundโฆ
๐ง๐ฆ๐ถ Things look really bad for the Bosniaks. They have very few children & they emigrate away from BiH A LOT. I think even if we adjusted for a lower BiH population than that used to calculate the 1.14 here TFR could still be sub 1.4 but who really knows with any certainty?
๐ Demographics Now and Then
๐ Demographics Now and Then
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As the war of words between Guyana ๐ฌ๐พ & Venezuela ๐ป๐ช threatens to turn into a very real conflict it is interesting to look at both their respective national & US diaspora populations as the U.S. will likely be the most decisive foreign actor in determining how things turn out. Venezuela has more than 30M people and is thus far more than an order of magnitude larger than Guyanaโs tiny ~750,000 people. 400,000 Guyanese live in the US (thatโs more than half the number of Guyanese in Guyana!). By contrast 800,000 Venezuelans call the US home. However, diaspora politics may not matter as much as in previous conflicts as most Venezuelans have no love for their government (even if they do think Essequibo is Venezuelan) and thus they will not raise much political pressure stateside. Guyanese OTOH may attempt to exert pressure on the US government to intervene. But this is yet to be seen.
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The War in Ukraine has cost both sides significant numbers of young men. Exactly the demographic neither country can afford to lose. In Russia (according to the sample below from Mediazona) ~14K aged 35 and below have been killed with 8,000 coming from the smallest cohort in modern Russian history. Many only sons lost.
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In Ukraine, this sample of war dead shows that the dead tend to skew older. Most KIA seem to come from Ukraineโs last huge cohort born from 1971-1988 with comparatively few from the smallest cohort born 1996-2005. Still thousands from their smallest generation have also died. Unsustainable.
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Japan will likely have less than 65 million people by 2100. Even so there is a high likelihood there will still be a Japan. With a unique culture, society & history. In fact if Japan can get TFR back to 1.5 they will be in good shape. More to a country than economic expansion.
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Massive birth rate declines across the American Southwest & California. The greatest drops in births were seen in Utah (-36.2%), Arizona (-36.1%) and Nevada (-34.0%) as well as California & Idaho. Utah, Idaho and Arizona have significant Mormon populations which have seen TFRโฌ๏ธ.
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By the 2040s China, Brazil, many states of India, & indeed all of the developed world+ a good portion of the developing, will be experiencing significant annual natural population decline. By then everyone will be taking about the need to tackle population policy. But if they wait until the 2030s or 2040s it will be far too late. The time is now:
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Demographics Now and Then
By the 2040s China, Brazil, many states of India, & indeed all of the developed world+ a good portion of the developing, will be experiencing significant annual natural population decline. By then everyone will be taking about the need to tackle populationโฆ
For the record this graphic may be too optimistic. Many countries may enter into natural decline earlier.
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๐ถ๐บ๐ธBirths to Nicaraguan mothers in the U.S. โฌ๏ธ gigantic 88% year on year due to border surge in arrivals. Births to Ecuadorian mothers โฌ๏ธ~17%, to Peruvian mothers โฌ๏ธ~25%, Venezuelan mother births โฌ๏ธ~26%, births to Cuban born U.S. mothers โฌ๏ธ~28%. Births to US born mothers โฌ๏ธ~2.7%.
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