Proportion of total births that were fourth or higher order for mothers in the US, by birth country, Jan-Oct 2023. Indian, Chinese, & Colombians have smaller families in the United States while Somali, Congolese, Afghan, Burmese & Laotians have huge families. The TFR for Indian and Chinese Americans is also quite low. Between 1.3-1.4.

My honest guess is ~20-25% of American women currently aged 25-44 will remain childless. The highest level ever. TFR will probably fall to sub 1.5. Still much higher than the East Asian average or that in Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland or Canada but no longer exceptional.

Know many people are saying this is no big deal & that US Treasury holders will take up the slack but I disagree. There are many risks. Also China, Saudi Arabia & others have not even exited our T-note market yet. As a country ages+has many bills more expensive debt suboptimal.

Also, as you can see on the table, of our remaining major foreign treasury security holders 2 are likely to drop off for security reasons (China as they want no Russia repeat+KSA due to 9/11 potential $1T suit) & 5 are aged & will have to dramatically up pension & medical spending in years ahead.

Thus debt sustainability (especially in the context of our rapidly aging population and plummeting fertility rate) is a huge area of future concern.

The nation (of a roughly similar size as the U.S. State of Iowa) has around 170M people & likely to reach its population peak at around 200M by 2050. This is good for the country as it is likely to enjoy a 30 year plus demographic dividend & is already very densely populated.

The UK had its highest ever recorded TFR in years 1815-1820 at~5.5. Life expectancy in the country at that time was ~40. TFR then fell relatively steadily before leveling off at~4.8 by 1830. Huge fall between 1880-1899 from 4.75 to 3.58. Then another big fall to 1935 1.75 TFR.

TFR then ticked upwards in the postwar demographic boom period hitting a high of 2.69 in 1947 & stayed above replacement until 1972. Since 1972 TFR has persistently stayed below replacement (like almost all countries in Europe)hitting an all time recorded low of ⬇️1.5 last year.

Home ownership rates in Romania, Lithuania, Croatia, Macedonia, & Slovakia are amongst the highest on earth. At the time of this study (2016) TFRs of these countries were as follows: Romania was on 1.68, Croatia (1.43), Lithuania (1.69), North Macedonia (1.78), Slovakia (1.48).

My reason for this post was because a few people have stated in the past that there was a strong correlation between home ownership and TFR. The lower homeownership countries on the list had a 2016 TFR of France (1.89), Denmark (1.78), Germany (1.59), & Switzerland (1.55).

All of Southeast Asia likely to be below replacement around 2030 based on current TFR trajectories. Cambodia,Laos & East Timor may hold out all the way until 2030 before succumbing while Myanmar+Indonesia are likely to join the rest that have already capitulated during the 2020s.

Cambodia is currently ~2.35 TFR, East Timor ~3, & Laos maybe ~2.5. All are lower or lower-middle income economies. Once they capitulate (& this could happen as early as the late 2020s) all of Southeast Asia (with a population of ~675 million) will likely be below replacement.

This year Japan is on track to record less than 750K births. The lowest level on record. It’s also far lower than the ~1M births Japan saw in 1868 when the Meji Restoration created the modern Japanese state from the Tokugawa shogunate. While unfortunate this isn’t nation ending.

Taiwan has had another mediocre demographic performance in 2023 (through not as bad as it could have been). Even if births surge up to 15% in 2024 TFR could stay⬇️1.0. Terrible position to be in. Taiwan (along with South Korea) on the precipice of total demographic capitulation.

It is highly doubtful that Taiwan will see a birth boom of more than 10% in the Year of the Dragon. Births will increase sure, but by how much is the question. Looking at Taiwanese Dragon year birth increases year on year in 2000 (~8%) and 2012 (~15%) gives us some clue. The increase looks set to be slightly less dramatic than in 2012 but even if they came close to repeating that feat TFR would still stay below 1.0.

🇧🇴👶Bolivia (the last high TFR country in Latin America) has seen its TFR fall to just 2.5. All of Latin America looks set to fall below replacement fertility by 2030. Paraguay, Bolivia & Guatemala may even take the plunge earlier than that.

Interestingly, Mennonites are responsible for up to 3% of total Bolivian births now. They demographically win huge wherever they go.