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🔗Gold
XAU/USD has broken through the 200-day moving average and almost reached $1 900 but pulled back. If it manages to break above it, the way up to the 100-day moving average near $1 915 will be clear. The hopes for a US stimulus package may help gold to edge higher. In the opposite scenario, the move below the support of $1 860 will drive gold lower to the low of December 14 at $1 825.
🔎Search : #USD #technical_analysis #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗Gold
XAU/USD has broken through the 200-day moving average and almost reached $1 900 but pulled back. If it manages to break above it, the way up to the 100-day moving average near $1 915 will be clear. The hopes for a US stimulus package may help gold to edge higher. In the opposite scenario, the move below the support of $1 860 will drive gold lower to the low of December 14 at $1 825.
🔎Search : #USD #technical_analysis #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
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▪️Markets await Biden to unveil "trillions dollars"
🔸Donald Trump becomes the first president in history to be impeached twice.
🔸Besides, Trump has strengthened a ban on US investments in Chinese companies. Among blacklisted companies are China’s top chipmaker SMIC and oil giant CNOOC. The administration turned down the idea to blacklist giants Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent.
🔸Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD. However, analysts expect the US stimulus will improve risk sentiment and press the USD down.
🔸US inflation numbers came out exactly as analysts expected.
🔸China’s exports rose more than forecast in December, signaling sustained global demand.
🔸The UK recorded the highest level of daily deaths since the Covid-19 pandemic started.
🔸Investors are focused on the extra US stimulus package, upcoming global recovery, and growth.
🔸Fed’s head Jerome Powell will hold a meeting at 19:30 MT time today, which should have a huge impact on the market.
🔎Search : #USD #fundamental_analysis #covid_19 #WTI #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
▪️Markets await Biden to unveil "trillions dollars"
🔸Donald Trump becomes the first president in history to be impeached twice.
🔸Besides, Trump has strengthened a ban on US investments in Chinese companies. Among blacklisted companies are China’s top chipmaker SMIC and oil giant CNOOC. The administration turned down the idea to blacklist giants Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent.
🔸Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD. However, analysts expect the US stimulus will improve risk sentiment and press the USD down.
🔸US inflation numbers came out exactly as analysts expected.
🔸China’s exports rose more than forecast in December, signaling sustained global demand.
🔸The UK recorded the highest level of daily deaths since the Covid-19 pandemic started.
🔸Investors are focused on the extra US stimulus package, upcoming global recovery, and growth.
🔸Fed’s head Jerome Powell will hold a meeting at 19:30 MT time today, which should have a huge impact on the market.
🔎Search : #USD #fundamental_analysis #covid_19 #WTI #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
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🔗On the gold chart, we can notice a bearish zero line crossover. The MACD indicator gets below 0 to turn negative. Since the overall trend is also downward, further falling is expected. If the price manages to break below the 200-day moving average of $1 835, the way down to the key psychological mark of $1 800 will be clear. Resistance levels are $1 870 and $1 900.
🔎Search : #USD #technical_analysis #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗On the gold chart, we can notice a bearish zero line crossover. The MACD indicator gets below 0 to turn negative. Since the overall trend is also downward, further falling is expected. If the price manages to break below the 200-day moving average of $1 835, the way down to the key psychological mark of $1 800 will be clear. Resistance levels are $1 870 and $1 900.
🔎Search : #USD #technical_analysis #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
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🔗Gold takes a break after a steep decline and moves sideways in the $1 825-1 865 range. The 50-period moving average has already crossed the 100-period MA and now it is approaching the 200-period MA to make the second dead cross. Therefore, we can assume that gold will fall further to the next support of $1 800, once it breaks below the support of $1 825.
🔎Search : #USD #technical_analysis #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗Gold takes a break after a steep decline and moves sideways in the $1 825-1 865 range. The 50-period moving average has already crossed the 100-period MA and now it is approaching the 200-period MA to make the second dead cross. Therefore, we can assume that gold will fall further to the next support of $1 800, once it breaks below the support of $1 825.
🔎Search : #USD #technical_analysis #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
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▪️All attention to Biden's inauguration
🔹Joe Biden will take the post of president of the USA on the morning of 20 January 2021. Trump is going to skip the inauguration. What will be the market reaction? Let’s find out!
🔹Biden will arrive in Washington on Tuesday, where Trump isn’t expected to meet him. Well, tensions are rising, and the market volatility as well.
🔹The USD has surged in January due to rising US Treasury yields and some investor caution about the strength of the global economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. However, most analysts predict that traders should be ready for a weaker dollar from here.
🔸Biden’s stimulus
The dollar has already retreated from a one-month high ahead of Biden’s inauguration today. Investors await Biden’s huge stimulus package of $1.9 billion to be unveiled soon. As a result, the market sentiment lifted and pressed safe-haven currencies like the dollar and Japanese yen down.
🔎Search : #USD #fundamental_analysis #elections #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
▪️All attention to Biden's inauguration
🔹Joe Biden will take the post of president of the USA on the morning of 20 January 2021. Trump is going to skip the inauguration. What will be the market reaction? Let’s find out!
🔹Biden will arrive in Washington on Tuesday, where Trump isn’t expected to meet him. Well, tensions are rising, and the market volatility as well.
🔹The USD has surged in January due to rising US Treasury yields and some investor caution about the strength of the global economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. However, most analysts predict that traders should be ready for a weaker dollar from here.
🔸Biden’s stimulus
The dollar has already retreated from a one-month high ahead of Biden’s inauguration today. Investors await Biden’s huge stimulus package of $1.9 billion to be unveiled soon. As a result, the market sentiment lifted and pressed safe-haven currencies like the dollar and Japanese yen down.
🔎Search : #USD #fundamental_analysis #elections #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
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🔗Yellen’s approach
Elsewhere, the USD dropped as traders are getting ready for Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen to talk later.
According to ING, “on fiscal policy, Yellen is to suggest that the US `act big’ and make use of the low borrowing costs. On the dollar, it should be reiterated that the new administration is committed to the market-determined exchange rate. Both are in line with our weak USD outlook”.
🔸Bullish forecasts for gold and stocks
According to Saxo Bank, Yellen’s speech will underpin gold: “I struggle to see Yellen saying anything that won’t eventually turn out to be gold supportive”. “Saying that the administration will not pursue a weak dollar policy is not the same as saying they won’t allow the dollar to weaken.”
Stock indices climbed ahead of Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen’s speech as she is expected to expand government support actions to boost the US economy.
🔸Opposite view
In contrast to the mentioned above, some analysts consider that Biden’s inauguration will drag the USD upwards. His enormous stimulus package will boost the US economic activity and speed up the pace of recovery. Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary nominee claimed that the US wouldn’t seek a weaker dollar for the competitive advantage. It may raise the demand for the USD.We would be happy to tell you what is going to happen, but nobody can predict with 100% how the new policy in the US will impact the markets. Follow the news, keep an eye on charts, and try to join the market flow!
🔎Search : #USD #fundamental_analysis #elections #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗Yellen’s approach
Elsewhere, the USD dropped as traders are getting ready for Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen to talk later.
According to ING, “on fiscal policy, Yellen is to suggest that the US `act big’ and make use of the low borrowing costs. On the dollar, it should be reiterated that the new administration is committed to the market-determined exchange rate. Both are in line with our weak USD outlook”.
🔸Bullish forecasts for gold and stocks
According to Saxo Bank, Yellen’s speech will underpin gold: “I struggle to see Yellen saying anything that won’t eventually turn out to be gold supportive”. “Saying that the administration will not pursue a weak dollar policy is not the same as saying they won’t allow the dollar to weaken.”
Stock indices climbed ahead of Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen’s speech as she is expected to expand government support actions to boost the US economy.
🔸Opposite view
In contrast to the mentioned above, some analysts consider that Biden’s inauguration will drag the USD upwards. His enormous stimulus package will boost the US economic activity and speed up the pace of recovery. Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary nominee claimed that the US wouldn’t seek a weaker dollar for the competitive advantage. It may raise the demand for the USD.We would be happy to tell you what is going to happen, but nobody can predict with 100% how the new policy in the US will impact the markets. Follow the news, keep an eye on charts, and try to join the market flow!
🔎Search : #USD #fundamental_analysis #elections #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
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🔗Gold is flirting with the $1 850 level. If it manages to break it down, the doors towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1 840 will be open. On the flip side, the move above the 200-period MA of $1 870 will drive the yellow metal to the 38.2% Fibo level at $1 885.
🔎Search : #gold #USD #technical_analysis
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗Gold is flirting with the $1 850 level. If it manages to break it down, the doors towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1 840 will be open. On the flip side, the move above the 200-period MA of $1 870 will drive the yellow metal to the 38.2% Fibo level at $1 885.
🔎Search : #gold #USD #technical_analysis
🆔 @dailyfx
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▪️Gold: 1 875 to go, 1900 coming
🔸Two similar trends?
Do you want to play a game? Plot an equilateral channel on the H4 gold chart: its lower line starts on January 15 low (1 825) and goes through the recent low like in the image (1 850). Then, plot another one: it would start at the support of 1 825 on December 15 and go upwards pinching through the following lows as indicated. Do you see any difference between the trajectories? Their inclination is pretty much the same. Does it suggest that the gold price is in the upward trajectory and may reach 1 875 and 1 900 soon? Yes - there are fundamental reasons for gold ro rise.
In the previous uptrend, the gold price went from 1 825 to 1 900 in approximately two weeks. Therefore, If the scenario repeats, we will have gold at 1 900 by mid-February. So, if you are willing to test this hypothesis, ready to wait for a couple of weeks and your account may withstand the fluctuations on the way - you buy at current price or wait for it to go down to 1 850 (it's still probable) and set your Take Profit/Sell below 1 900.
🔎Search : #GOLD #USD #technical_analysis
🆔 @dailyfx
▪️Gold: 1 875 to go, 1900 coming
🔸Two similar trends?
Do you want to play a game? Plot an equilateral channel on the H4 gold chart: its lower line starts on January 15 low (1 825) and goes through the recent low like in the image (1 850). Then, plot another one: it would start at the support of 1 825 on December 15 and go upwards pinching through the following lows as indicated. Do you see any difference between the trajectories? Their inclination is pretty much the same. Does it suggest that the gold price is in the upward trajectory and may reach 1 875 and 1 900 soon? Yes - there are fundamental reasons for gold ro rise.
In the previous uptrend, the gold price went from 1 825 to 1 900 in approximately two weeks. Therefore, If the scenario repeats, we will have gold at 1 900 by mid-February. So, if you are willing to test this hypothesis, ready to wait for a couple of weeks and your account may withstand the fluctuations on the way - you buy at current price or wait for it to go down to 1 850 (it's still probable) and set your Take Profit/Sell below 1 900.
🔎Search : #GOLD #USD #technical_analysis
🆔 @dailyfx
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🔗Trade idea details and contions
1. You are ready to wait 2-3 weeks
2. Your account may withstand the fluctuation (you've made respective calculations)
3. You are willing to test this scenario as in experimental mode (not putting all your equity on it)
4. Buy at current price/1 850
5. Take Profit/Sell below 1 900
6. Stop Loss at 1 825
🔎Search : #GOLD #USD #technical_analysis
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗Trade idea details and contions
1. You are ready to wait 2-3 weeks
2. Your account may withstand the fluctuation (you've made respective calculations)
3. You are willing to test this scenario as in experimental mode (not putting all your equity on it)
4. Buy at current price/1 850
5. Take Profit/Sell below 1 900
6. Stop Loss at 1 825
🔎Search : #GOLD #USD #technical_analysis
🆔 @dailyfx
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▪️Gold: no rush to the upside
🔸In one of the recent articles, we tried to make a trajectory for the gold price based on the December chart. Well, we were wrong - that's how you reality-check your projections. Gold did not follow the upward channel similar to the one it was in December and got down to 1 845.
That means, the tactical support of 1 825 should be the baseline level for bears to aim at, and 1 875 is the key resistance so far. In the mid-term, a sideways dynamic seems to be the most probable scenario.
🔎Search : #usd #GOLD #technical_analysis
🆔 @dailyfx
▪️Gold: no rush to the upside
🔸In one of the recent articles, we tried to make a trajectory for the gold price based on the December chart. Well, we were wrong - that's how you reality-check your projections. Gold did not follow the upward channel similar to the one it was in December and got down to 1 845.
That means, the tactical support of 1 825 should be the baseline level for bears to aim at, and 1 875 is the key resistance so far. In the mid-term, a sideways dynamic seems to be the most probable scenario.
🔎Search : #usd #GOLD #technical_analysis
🆔 @dailyfx
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▪️Silver: rising in the shade
🔸We are used to discussing gold as if it was the only actor on the stage. In the meantime, silver made a 100% value gain in 2020 - much more than gold did. It should already be enough to be considered in line with gold as a potentially very benefitial asset to trade. The weekly chart below proves that idea.
🔎Search : #silver #gold
🆔 @dailyfx
▪️Silver: rising in the shade
🔸We are used to discussing gold as if it was the only actor on the stage. In the meantime, silver made a 100% value gain in 2020 - much more than gold did. It should already be enough to be considered in line with gold as a potentially very benefitial asset to trade. The weekly chart below proves that idea.
🔎Search : #silver #gold
🆔 @dailyfx
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🔗On the H1, silver made a local breakthrough, too. After going mostly sideways along the level of 25.00, it made a straight leap to 27.00 - which is almost a 10% gain in one day! Currently, it trades above 26.00 but the volatility is obvious: hence, the potential profitability. Don't give in to the frenzy that quickly, though: if you observe more performance of this metal, you'll see plunges even more spectacular than this rise. Therefore, be prepared for a bearish scenario where silver cedes the gains and gets down to touch the Moving Averages again. After, it may keep conquering the upside.
🔎Search : #silver #gold
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗On the H1, silver made a local breakthrough, too. After going mostly sideways along the level of 25.00, it made a straight leap to 27.00 - which is almost a 10% gain in one day! Currently, it trades above 26.00 but the volatility is obvious: hence, the potential profitability. Don't give in to the frenzy that quickly, though: if you observe more performance of this metal, you'll see plunges even more spectacular than this rise. Therefore, be prepared for a bearish scenario where silver cedes the gains and gets down to touch the Moving Averages again. After, it may keep conquering the upside.
🔎Search : #silver #gold
🆔 @dailyfx
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🔗Gold is moving in an ascending channel. If it breaks through the 100-period moving average of $1740, it may rise to the next resistance of $1750. In the opposite scenario, the way down the recent lows of $1725 will drive gold to the 50-period moving average of $1712.
🔎Search : #XAUUSD #news #FED #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗Gold is moving in an ascending channel. If it breaks through the 100-period moving average of $1740, it may rise to the next resistance of $1750. In the opposite scenario, the way down the recent lows of $1725 will drive gold to the 50-period moving average of $1712.
🔎Search : #XAUUSD #news #FED #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
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🔗Gold is moving up and up inside the ascending channel in the short term. If it manages to break the high of March 19 at $1745, the way up to the high of March 18 at $1755 will be open. The downside is limited by the intersection of the lower trend line and the 50-period moving average of $1732. Thus, gold is likely to move further up.
🔎Search : #XAUUSD #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗Gold is moving up and up inside the ascending channel in the short term. If it manages to break the high of March 19 at $1745, the way up to the high of March 18 at $1755 will be open. The downside is limited by the intersection of the lower trend line and the 50-period moving average of $1732. Thus, gold is likely to move further up.
🔎Search : #XAUUSD #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
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🔗The double bottom pattern has occurred in the gold chart. The neckline lies at $1760, which coincides also with the 50-day moving average. Once the price crosses this level, it should skyrocket to the high of February 19 at $1790 and then to the 100-day moving average of $1810. However, the dollar’s rebound may ruin all these plans. So, if gold drops below yesterday’s low of $1735, the way down further to $1724 will be clear.
🔎Search : #XAUUSD #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗The double bottom pattern has occurred in the gold chart. The neckline lies at $1760, which coincides also with the 50-day moving average. Once the price crosses this level, it should skyrocket to the high of February 19 at $1790 and then to the 100-day moving average of $1810. However, the dollar’s rebound may ruin all these plans. So, if gold drops below yesterday’s low of $1735, the way down further to $1724 will be clear.
🔎Search : #XAUUSD #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
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🔗Gold has skyrocketed and even crossed the psychological mark of $1800 yesterday. After that, it took a pause, but if bulls keep momentum and the price breaks the resistance of $1825, the way up to the next round number of $1850 will be open. Pay attention that the RSI indicator went above 70.00 level, signaling the asset is overbought, thus we shouldn’t expect a long rally up. Support levels are the intraday low of $1813 and the $1800 support.
🔎Search : #USD #DXY #NFP #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗Gold has skyrocketed and even crossed the psychological mark of $1800 yesterday. After that, it took a pause, but if bulls keep momentum and the price breaks the resistance of $1825, the way up to the next round number of $1850 will be open. Pay attention that the RSI indicator went above 70.00 level, signaling the asset is overbought, thus we shouldn’t expect a long rally up. Support levels are the intraday low of $1813 and the $1800 support.
🔎Search : #USD #DXY #NFP #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
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▪️Will inflation push the greenback higher?
⏰The United States will publish a monthly Inflation Rate and Core Inflation Rate on May 12, at 15:30 MT time.
🔹 The Inflation rate measures the change in the price of goods and services. The core indicator is different as it does not include food and energy prices. The Federal Reserve pays particular attention to these indicators because a rise in inflation pushes the regulator towards monetary policy tightening. As a result, the US dollar goes higher.
🔎Search : #USD #DXY #CPI #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
▪️Will inflation push the greenback higher?
⏰The United States will publish a monthly Inflation Rate and Core Inflation Rate on May 12, at 15:30 MT time.
🔹 The Inflation rate measures the change in the price of goods and services. The core indicator is different as it does not include food and energy prices. The Federal Reserve pays particular attention to these indicators because a rise in inflation pushes the regulator towards monetary policy tightening. As a result, the US dollar goes higher.
🔎Search : #USD #DXY #CPI #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
🔻
🔗How to trade on the releases of Inflation and Core Inflation?
Nothing can be easier! Pay attention to the forecasts in the economic calendar and trade in the right direction right after the release.
📈If the indicators are higher than the forecasts, the USD will go higher;
📉On the other hand, the USD will weaken against other currencies.
📊Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
🔎Search : #USD #DXY #CPI #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗How to trade on the releases of Inflation and Core Inflation?
Nothing can be easier! Pay attention to the forecasts in the economic calendar and trade in the right direction right after the release.
📈If the indicators are higher than the forecasts, the USD will go higher;
📉On the other hand, the USD will weaken against other currencies.
📊Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY
🔎Search : #USD #DXY #CPI #GOLD
🆔 @dailyfx
🔻
▪️Will the US Fed support the USD?
⏰The US Fed will share the Meeting Minutes on May 19, at 21:00 GMT+3.
🔹The main announcement from the FOMC’s side has already been done a while ago: the Fed shared an overall optimistic outlook on the US economic recovery with no intention to move the interest from its current position earlier than in 2023. In the meantime, the regulator is ready to stand by the economy and come to its aid if there is any drawback in the process of recovery. Currently, it goes even in the opposite direction: the recovery seems to be so dynamic that inflation is going overboard. Very likely, we will see many remarks about that in the contents of the Fed’s Meeting Minutes.
🔎Search : #USD #DXY #GOLD #FED
🆔 @dailyfx
▪️Will the US Fed support the USD?
⏰The US Fed will share the Meeting Minutes on May 19, at 21:00 GMT+3.
🔹The main announcement from the FOMC’s side has already been done a while ago: the Fed shared an overall optimistic outlook on the US economic recovery with no intention to move the interest from its current position earlier than in 2023. In the meantime, the regulator is ready to stand by the economy and come to its aid if there is any drawback in the process of recovery. Currently, it goes even in the opposite direction: the recovery seems to be so dynamic that inflation is going overboard. Very likely, we will see many remarks about that in the contents of the Fed’s Meeting Minutes.
🔎Search : #USD #DXY #GOLD #FED
🆔 @dailyfx
🔻
🔗How to trade the Meeting Minutes?
🔸Trading the Fed’s Meeting Minutes comes down to answering one question: are the contents pointing to optimistic expectations of sooner recovery, or the Fed is concerned with certain points in the future or present economic disposition. In the first scenario, the USD will potentially rise; in the second – it may drop.
📈Optimistic outlook supports the USD;
📉Concerns about recovery and inflation press on the USD.
📊Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD
🔎Search : #USD #DXY #GOLD #FED
🆔 @dailyfx
🔗How to trade the Meeting Minutes?
🔸Trading the Fed’s Meeting Minutes comes down to answering one question: are the contents pointing to optimistic expectations of sooner recovery, or the Fed is concerned with certain points in the future or present economic disposition. In the first scenario, the USD will potentially rise; in the second – it may drop.
📈Optimistic outlook supports the USD;
📉Concerns about recovery and inflation press on the USD.
📊Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD
🔎Search : #USD #DXY #GOLD #FED
🆔 @dailyfx