Rob Lee (Twitter)
Although Ukraine now has plenty of NATO artillery systems, it has a logistical headache dealing with so many variants and Ukrainian soldiers didn’t have enough time to train on maintaining them. Maintenance for these new systems will likely be a greater issue over time. 22/
Although Ukraine now has plenty of NATO artillery systems, it has a logistical headache dealing with so many variants and Ukrainian soldiers didn’t have enough time to train on maintaining them. Maintenance for these new systems will likely be a greater issue over time. 22/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
According to a US official, Ukraine is firing 3,000 155mm rounds a day. The most recent delivery from the US was for 260,000 rounds. At that rate, Ukraine will run through that in 3 months. How many 155mm rounds and GMLRS is the US currently producing? Is it enough to sustain?23/
According to a US official, Ukraine is firing 3,000 155mm rounds a day. The most recent delivery from the US was for 260,000 rounds. At that rate, Ukraine will run through that in 3 months. How many 155mm rounds and GMLRS is the US currently producing? Is it enough to sustain?23/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
And Ukraine would likely need to expend more artillery rounds in an offensive operation than in defense. Any supply issues would force Ukraine to be more conservative. Can NATO continue providing enough artillery and other ammunition by the fall or winter at this rate? 24/
And Ukraine would likely need to expend more artillery rounds in an offensive operation than in defense. Any supply issues would force Ukraine to be more conservative. Can NATO continue providing enough artillery and other ammunition by the fall or winter at this rate? 24/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@shashj According to the graphic, 6 of those are ammo depots, 6 are Russian military bases and one oil facility and one Russian military infrastructure target.
@shashj According to the graphic, 6 of those are ammo depots, 6 are Russian military bases and one oil facility and one Russian military infrastructure target.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
This war is increasingly being fought by reservists/volunteers, which means the relative ability to train and equip these units is increasingly important. Despite plenty of problems, Russia probably has an advantage in being able to rudimentarily train and equip these units. 25/
This war is increasingly being fought by reservists/volunteers, which means the relative ability to train and equip these units is increasingly important. Despite plenty of problems, Russia probably has an advantage in being able to rudimentarily train and equip these units. 25/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Training Ukrainian platoons, companies, and maybe battalions to operate as units will be critical to Ukraine's ability to sustain this war, not just technical training. Units and soldiers require more training to conduct offensive operations rather than defending a trench. 26/
Training Ukrainian platoons, companies, and maybe battalions to operate as units will be critical to Ukraine's ability to sustain this war, not just technical training. Units and soldiers require more training to conduct offensive operations rather than defending a trench. 26/
IgorGirkin (Twitter)
RT @bamr69: #Авдеевка очень тяжёлый день . Несколько авианалетов, Грады и арта . В городе существенные разрушения .
Город выстоял .
RT @bamr69: #Авдеевка очень тяжёлый день . Несколько авианалетов, Грады и арта . В городе существенные разрушения .
Город выстоял .
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Ukrainian officials have been talking about a future offensive, but it will heavily depend on how well-trained its forces are, including units with reservists, not just the # of troops. The UK is training Ukrainian soldiers, but it isn't clear that this will be sufficient. 27/
Ukrainian officials have been talking about a future offensive, but it will heavily depend on how well-trained its forces are, including units with reservists, not just the # of troops. The UK is training Ukrainian soldiers, but it isn't clear that this will be sufficient. 27/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
For NATO, the question is what is its desired endstate in Ukraine and is its support commensurate with that goal? NATO is providing critical support, but Kyiv will likely require a more robust training program and ammo if it is to retake a sizeable amount of territory. 28/
For NATO, the question is what is its desired endstate in Ukraine and is its support commensurate with that goal? NATO is providing critical support, but Kyiv will likely require a more robust training program and ammo if it is to retake a sizeable amount of territory. 28/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russia's voluntary mobilization program may falter over time and its spring draft seems to be struggling, but Russia will likely be able to sustain this war for the foreseeable future. The Kremlin will continue this war as long as it believes the military situation favors it. 29/
Russia's voluntary mobilization program may falter over time and its spring draft seems to be struggling, but Russia will likely be able to sustain this war for the foreseeable future. The Kremlin will continue this war as long as it believes the military situation favors it. 29/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Over the next month, I suspect Russia’s offensive will slow, and Ukraine may be able to retake territory in Kherson. It is hard to predict what the war will look like by the fall because Ukraine's ability to sustain this war is highly contingent on the level of NATO support. 30/
Over the next month, I suspect Russia’s offensive will slow, and Ukraine may be able to retake territory in Kherson. It is hard to predict what the war will look like by the fall because Ukraine's ability to sustain this war is highly contingent on the level of NATO support. 30/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
I included maps from @Nrg8000 and @Liveuamap, and screenshots from articles by @ChristopherJM, @yaffaesque, and @NeilPHauer in this thread. 31/
I included maps from @Nrg8000 and @Liveuamap, and screenshots from articles by @ChristopherJM, @yaffaesque, and @NeilPHauer in this thread. 31/
Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
Today Ukrainian HIMARS 🇺🇦bombed an ammunition depot in Charvine, North Kherson Oblast
Yesterday, they also bombed a Charvine Ammunition depot but I said “2 villages in North Kherson” and on my map I marked exactly over Charvine
The other village bombed in Kherson was Shchaslyve
Today Ukrainian HIMARS 🇺🇦bombed an ammunition depot in Charvine, North Kherson Oblast
Yesterday, they also bombed a Charvine Ammunition depot but I said “2 villages in North Kherson” and on my map I marked exactly over Charvine
The other village bombed in Kherson was Shchaslyve
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Весёлый парень из #4тд подполковник Сорочинский Александр Евстафьевич из Наро-Фоминска демилитаризовался в ходе СВОВУ. Печалька https://vk.com/wall-2167960_2707613 #всрф #потерьнет #груз200
Весёлый парень из #4тд подполковник Сорочинский Александр Евстафьевич из Наро-Фоминска демилитаризовался в ходе СВОВУ. Печалька https://vk.com/wall-2167960_2707613 #всрф #потерьнет #груз200