Rob Lee (Twitter)
The capture of Severodonetsk/Lysychansk are victories for Russia. They are important for domestic support (which would be far lower if the offensive stalled), a sense of momentum, and likely for recruiting efforts, but their loss isn't that strategically significant for Kyiv. 11/
The capture of Severodonetsk/Lysychansk are victories for Russia. They are important for domestic support (which would be far lower if the offensive stalled), a sense of momentum, and likely for recruiting efforts, but their loss isn't that strategically significant for Kyiv. 11/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Because their loss doesn't affect Ukraine's ability to fight this war. My view was that relative losses was the more strategically important metric to use for the battle for the Donbas. It seems Russia took heavier losses in April-May, but that may have changed in May-June. 12/
Because their loss doesn't affect Ukraine's ability to fight this war. My view was that relative losses was the more strategically important metric to use for the battle for the Donbas. It seems Russia took heavier losses in April-May, but that may have changed in May-June. 12/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
I'm not sure about Siversk, but Ukraine should have better prospects for holding its lines around Slovyansk/Kramatorsk. Ukraine can provide better air defense and artillery coverage in that area, and Ukraine now has greater experience operating new NATO artillery and MLRS. 13/
I'm not sure about Siversk, but Ukraine should have better prospects for holding its lines around Slovyansk/Kramatorsk. Ukraine can provide better air defense and artillery coverage in that area, and Ukraine now has greater experience operating new NATO artillery and MLRS. 13/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Ukraine now has a decent number of self-propelled PzH 2000, Caesar, M109A3GN, and AHS Krab howitzers as well as M777 in service and enough ammunition to not have to be overly conservative, which reduces Russia's artillery advantage. They are also receiving more PGM rounds. 14/
Ukraine now has a decent number of self-propelled PzH 2000, Caesar, M109A3GN, and AHS Krab howitzers as well as M777 in service and enough ammunition to not have to be overly conservative, which reduces Russia's artillery advantage. They are also receiving more PGM rounds. 14/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
HIMARS are already playing a critical role by targeting Russian ammo depots (along with Tochka-U) and command posts, which are both Russian military vulnerabilities due to its centralized decision-making and anachronistic supply. And Ukraine is using them judiciously. 15/
HIMARS are already playing a critical role by targeting Russian ammo depots (along with Tochka-U) and command posts, which are both Russian military vulnerabilities due to its centralized decision-making and anachronistic supply. And Ukraine is using them judiciously. 15/
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Because of HIMARS' range/accuracy, Kyiv only has to fire a small # of munitions a day to achieve significant effects. GPS-guided GMLRS can be launched at night when Russian UAVs are less able to detect them, and they can drive away before being engaged.16/
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@RALee85:
Another video of Ukrainian HIMARS firing on Russian positions at night.
https://t.co/nxM3m59jqn https://t.co/zzeOzoyVtY
Because of HIMARS' range/accuracy, Kyiv only has to fire a small # of munitions a day to achieve significant effects. GPS-guided GMLRS can be launched at night when Russian UAVs are less able to detect them, and they can drive away before being engaged.16/
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@RALee85:
Another video of Ukrainian HIMARS firing on Russian positions at night.
https://t.co/nxM3m59jqn https://t.co/zzeOzoyVtY
Rob Lee (Twitter)
HIMARS will help disrupt future Russian offensives by reducing its critical artillery/MLRS advantage, but they won't retake terrain. Also, the limiting factor for HIMARS isn't the number of launchers, but the number of GMLRS and other munitions, which aren't in large supply. 17/
HIMARS will help disrupt future Russian offensives by reducing its critical artillery/MLRS advantage, but they won't retake terrain. Also, the limiting factor for HIMARS isn't the number of launchers, but the number of GMLRS and other munitions, which aren't in large supply. 17/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@shashj Not a full list, and Krasny Luch on June 16 was probably the most significant, but BBC's Russian service is tracking them.
https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-62086287
@shashj Not a full list, and Krasny Luch on June 16 was probably the most significant, but BBC's Russian service is tracking them.
https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-62086287
Rob Lee (Twitter)
When I wrote about the war in April, there were two key questions: how much attrition had Ukraine sustained (could they counterattack soon?) and how would Russia solve its manpower issues? It is now clear that Ukraine also sustained heavy losses at the beginning of the war. 18/
When I wrote about the war in April, there were two key questions: how much attrition had Ukraine sustained (could they counterattack soon?) and how would Russia solve its manpower issues? It is now clear that Ukraine also sustained heavy losses at the beginning of the war. 18/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Ukraine has had some success counterattacking in Kherson but it clearly lacked enough combat-ready units to conduct a large-scale offensive there and defend the Donbas. It is clear that Kyiv made a decision to prioritize defending the Donbas and committed serious resources. 19/
Ukraine has had some success counterattacking in Kherson but it clearly lacked enough combat-ready units to conduct a large-scale offensive there and defend the Donbas. It is clear that Kyiv made a decision to prioritize defending the Donbas and committed serious resources. 19/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
There was talk that Putin might declare a general mobilization on Victory Day. Instead, Russia has pursued a voluntary mobilization program by offering financial incentives. There are plenty of issues, but, so far, Russia has recruited enough volunteers to sustain the war. 20/
There was talk that Putin might declare a general mobilization on Victory Day. Instead, Russia has pursued a voluntary mobilization program by offering financial incentives. There are plenty of issues, but, so far, Russia has recruited enough volunteers to sustain the war. 20/