Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)
RT @Tatarigami_UA: In light of recent photos and videos drawing public attention to Shahed drone production, a common question has emerged: Why can’t Ukraine simply strike the facility? Hit the archer, not the arrow! The answer, however, is more complicated than it seems. Here are a few key points:
RT @Tatarigami_UA: In light of recent photos and videos drawing public attention to Shahed drone production, a common question has emerged: Why can’t Ukraine simply strike the facility? Hit the archer, not the arrow! The answer, however, is more complicated than it seems. Here are a few key points:
Status-6 (Twitter)
Meaningful thread.
Alabuga is a big facility so for a strike having desired impact it would have to be a saturation attack or a very lucky shot (eg. one initiating significant fire).
Other option is a complex internal sabotage.
Meaningful thread.
Alabuga is a big facility so for a strike having desired impact it would have to be a saturation attack or a very lucky shot (eg. one initiating significant fire).
Other option is a complex internal sabotage.
vxTwitter / fixvx
💖 585 🔁 102
💖 585 🔁 102
Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA)
In light of recent photos and videos drawing public attention to Shahed drone production, a common question has emerged: Why can’t Ukraine simply strike the facility? Hit the archer, not the arrow! The answer, however, is more complicated than it seems. Here…
Status-6 (Twitter)
@IAPonomarenko: "Zelensky about to be ousted" is on the same shelf as "Kyiv in 3 days" and "Russia is running out of missiles"
@IAPonomarenko: "Zelensky about to be ousted" is on the same shelf as "Kyiv in 3 days" and "Russia is running out of missiles"
Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
@AzamatJoe @John_A_Ridge: It would require like 30 to 50 Tomahawks to successfully destroy the main Shahed factory.
@AzamatJoe @John_A_Ridge: It would require like 30 to 50 Tomahawks to successfully destroy the main Shahed factory.
Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
@AzamatJoe @John_A_Ridge: It’s not as strong in this area because no single missile strike has been carried out there. Tomahawks would approach from different directions as well. Several directions are completely undefended. The primary resistance would be near the factory. 100 Tomahawks, max, should do. Only 20% to 30% need to get through to destroy most of the factory.
It’s not hundreds. That’s a pretty insane claim to say that hundreds would be needed. Ukraine is able to get drones around any target in Russia that they can reach. The UAV factory in Dubna, Moscow Oblast, which is less than 1km from the X-101 cruise missile factory, took 12 direct hits to one building two months ago. Cruise missiles are much harder to shoot down. If a strike were carried out, Ukraine also has hundreds of drones flying toward Alabuga, which would make it much harder to shoot down the cruise missiles. Also, Ukraine would launch dozens of ADM-160 MALD decoy cruise missiles for most of the path.
There is not a single target in the world that would require hundreds of Tomahawks to destroy. The factory is also confined to a handful of buildings—four to six main buildings, which would require 20 to 30 successful hits to destroy.
Perhaps the biggest factor is that that area has never taken a missile strike. As we’ve seen repeatedly during the war, when initial strikes are carried out either with a longer range, with a new weapon, or on a new target, Russia takes time to adapt. And they’ve had zero adaptations to missile strikes on Alabuga. Most of their missile defenses are within 50km to 300km of the frontline. There are also missile paths that Tomahawks can take inside Russia, where there are barely any air defenses, which is why we see Ukrainian drones being able to penetrate over 1000km into Russia before they are shot down. Even a handful of Tomahawks penetrating can do significant damage.
As we can see by the video, one Tomahawk striking one of those buildings would destroy +200 Shaheds in one room and production of 40 to 50 Shaheds per day in the same room.
The conclusion is that hundreds of Tomahawks are a massive overstatement of what is required, and 50 to 100 Tomahawks could destroy the factory even if 20% to 30% get through. In reality, 40% to 50% or more would get through as Tomahawks are maneuverable and approach from different directions, whereas Russia lacks air defenses. Also, Ukraine will eventually receive Tomahawks; the question is how long it will take and in what quantities they will receive them.
@AzamatJoe @John_A_Ridge: It’s not as strong in this area because no single missile strike has been carried out there. Tomahawks would approach from different directions as well. Several directions are completely undefended. The primary resistance would be near the factory. 100 Tomahawks, max, should do. Only 20% to 30% need to get through to destroy most of the factory.
It’s not hundreds. That’s a pretty insane claim to say that hundreds would be needed. Ukraine is able to get drones around any target in Russia that they can reach. The UAV factory in Dubna, Moscow Oblast, which is less than 1km from the X-101 cruise missile factory, took 12 direct hits to one building two months ago. Cruise missiles are much harder to shoot down. If a strike were carried out, Ukraine also has hundreds of drones flying toward Alabuga, which would make it much harder to shoot down the cruise missiles. Also, Ukraine would launch dozens of ADM-160 MALD decoy cruise missiles for most of the path.
There is not a single target in the world that would require hundreds of Tomahawks to destroy. The factory is also confined to a handful of buildings—four to six main buildings, which would require 20 to 30 successful hits to destroy.
Perhaps the biggest factor is that that area has never taken a missile strike. As we’ve seen repeatedly during the war, when initial strikes are carried out either with a longer range, with a new weapon, or on a new target, Russia takes time to adapt. And they’ve had zero adaptations to missile strikes on Alabuga. Most of their missile defenses are within 50km to 300km of the frontline. There are also missile paths that Tomahawks can take inside Russia, where there are barely any air defenses, which is why we see Ukrainian drones being able to penetrate over 1000km into Russia before they are shot down. Even a handful of Tomahawks penetrating can do significant damage.
As we can see by the video, one Tomahawk striking one of those buildings would destroy +200 Shaheds in one room and production of 40 to 50 Shaheds per day in the same room.
The conclusion is that hundreds of Tomahawks are a massive overstatement of what is required, and 50 to 100 Tomahawks could destroy the factory even if 20% to 30% get through. In reality, 40% to 50% or more would get through as Tomahawks are maneuverable and approach from different directions, whereas Russia lacks air defenses. Also, Ukraine will eventually receive Tomahawks; the question is how long it will take and in what quantities they will receive them.
❤3🤡2
Status-6 (Twitter)
@3lfares: I hope she is not asking because one of them appeared in her DMs like Conor
@3lfares: I hope she is not asking because one of them appeared in her DMs like Conor
Status-6 (Twitter)
RT @splendid_pete: ‼️ 🇭🇺 According to Dr. András Rácz, senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), there are serious and well-founded suspicions about the Hungarian government’s possible role in the recent arson attack against the Hungarian Reformed church in Palágykomoróc (Palad’-Komarivtsi), Ukraine.
🧠 Rácz is a leading expert on Eastern Europe, Russia, and security policy. He previously worked at DGAP’s Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, and also at its Security and Defense Program. Between 2019 and 2020, he served as a senior fellow of the Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia.
⸻
Here are the most damning points:
‣ Orbán’s team had the original photo before anyone else. Although the pro-government site Mandiner was first to report the incident, the photo it used was a cropped version of one posted on Viktor Orbán’s Facebook—strongly suggesting is...
Перейти на оригинальный пост
RT @splendid_pete: ‼️ 🇭🇺 According to Dr. András Rácz, senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), there are serious and well-founded suspicions about the Hungarian government’s possible role in the recent arson attack against the Hungarian Reformed church in Palágykomoróc (Palad’-Komarivtsi), Ukraine.
🧠 Rácz is a leading expert on Eastern Europe, Russia, and security policy. He previously worked at DGAP’s Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia, and also at its Security and Defense Program. Between 2019 and 2020, he served as a senior fellow of the Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia.
⸻
Here are the most damning points:
‣ Orbán’s team had the original photo before anyone else. Although the pro-government site Mandiner was first to report the incident, the photo it used was a cropped version of one posted on Viktor Orbán’s Facebook—strongly suggesting is...
Перейти на оригинальный пост
❤2
Status-6 (Twitter)
During the Usyk-Dubois fight, American boxer and influencer Jake Paul presented the coin with the insignia of the Ukrainian 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade.
It was gifted to him by the audience.
During the Usyk-Dubois fight, American boxer and influencer Jake Paul presented the coin with the insignia of the Ukrainian 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade.
It was gifted to him by the audience.
❤2
Status-6 (Twitter)
Can't believe I've put "Jake Paul" and
"128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade" in the same tweet.
Can't believe I've put "Jake Paul" and
"128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade" in the same tweet.
😁4
Status-6 (Twitter)
US President Trump posted a random video compilation of 25 crazy/tricky moments on his Truth.
That's it. No further elaboration.
US President Trump posted a random video compilation of 25 crazy/tricky moments on his Truth.
That's it. No further elaboration.
🥴3
Status-6 (Twitter)
@Lorenzo1010101: Cause that's pretty surreal that the two things from such different worlds appear in a related context
@Lorenzo1010101: Cause that's pretty surreal that the two things from such different worlds appear in a related context