Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @Mr_ATACMS @ChrisDJackson @POTUS @JoeBiden: From a post this week explaining why 538 the election analytical site show Biden is more likely to win the election than Trump.

538’s methodology is very complex. Other estimates from CNN and the Economist showing a Trump landslide are not very accurate or anymore accurate than 538.

For example, let’s take Virginia, a state Biden very likely will win. The polls show around 40% for Biden and 40% for Trump now, but for Democratic Senators shows them winning by 5-10%. That’s because around 15% to 20% of the voters have not made their decision yet which is why we are seeing both Trump and Biden in a three way race with 3rd party’s polling very low at around 40% each.

Closer to Election Day most of those 15% to 20% of voters will make a decision, and in a state like Virginia it will very likely be Biden, and in Michigan it will break close to even. 538 is not flawed, they are making an estimate based on many different factors including historical ones, one is that polls 4 months out are not very representative of how the election will be. In 3 way polls Biden is losing to Trump by 1-3% on average, with a large portion of people undecided around 15%. But for swing states and nationally for two way polls Biden is winning nationally by around 2% in the majority of those polls and is around 1-2% away within the margin of error in swing state polls. That’s because when people are given a choice between Trump or Biden, many will be siding with Biden in swings states or breaking even.

This is the same reason why Republicans were projected to win the House by 30 to 40 seats last year in the same polls and ended up winning by only 4 seats and now have a 1 seat majority.

Dan (Twitter)

RT @KofmanMichael: Circling back to the battle for Bakhmut, a useful addition by @RUSI_org colleagues in a recent report. https://static.rusi.org/lessons-learned-ukraine-offensive-2022-23.pdf

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

К сожалению, не в этот раз
t.me/wild_hornets/1602 #RussianUkrainianWar

‌Rob Lee (Twitter)

RT @joestieb: A massive oversimplification, to the point of distortion (🧵)

I agree that the mil-industrial complex did not drive us into war.

But voter support for Iraq was highly contingent on the way the Bush admin shaped the information space, if you will, and on other factors.

There/

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@PpollingNumbers: This is even worse than Biden. What is the Democratic Party doing trying to force Biden to drop out? They will lose this election if he drops out.

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

RT @BBS3AB: 💥Hot FPV delivery

An enemy truck burns to the ground after an encounter with an FPV drone.

📍Kharkiv region

The crew of the “Foreigner” is working - like these Cossacks.

We destroy the enemy every day!
Support, subscribe, donate to FPV (we need a lot of them)!

Bank: https://send.monobank.ua/jar/9jnyezE8XA

PayPal: vasian69@gmail.com

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)

/1. Improvised Russian minesweeper. Lazurne, Kherson region.
t.me/russianocontext/3980

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)

/2. Geolocation of the improvised Russian minesweeper
(46.0715833, 32.5402778)
t.me/kherson_non_fake/16076

Dan (Twitter)

@Danspiun: 281 NW outskirts of Vovchansk, early June
510m further back along the road from tweet 280, Grifon unit of 501 Batt,🇺🇦36th Marine Bde target RuAF advancing in the open at 50.301875, 36.907101. At least 1 is down.
Close to tweet 178 which help date/locate it.https://x.com/Danspiun/status/1806395576478495064 https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1806395576478495064#m

Def Mon (Twitter)

RT @KofmanMichael: Circling back to the battle for Bakhmut, a useful addition by @RUSI_org colleagues in a recent report. https://static.rusi.org/lessons-learned-ukraine-offensive-2022-23.pdf

Def Mon (Twitter)

Not a surprise. https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1813940811945709715#m