Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
@ukraine_map @ChrisDJackson: 538’s methodology is very complex. Other estimates from CNN and the Economist showing a Trump landslide are not very accurate or anymore accurate than 538.
For example, let’s take Virginia, a state Biden very likely will win. The polls show around 40% for Biden and 40% for Trump now, but for Democratic Senators shows them winning by 5-10%. That’s because around 15% to 20% of the voters have not made their decision yet which is why we are seeing both Trump and Biden in a three way race with 3rd party’s polling very low at around 40% each.
Closer to Election Day most of those 15% to 20% of voters will make a decision, and in a state like Virginia it will very likely be Biden, and in Michigan it will break close to even. 538 is not flawed, they are making an estimate based on many different factors including historical ones, one is that polls 4 months out are not very representative of how the election will be. In 3 way polls Biden is losing to Trump by 1-3% on average, with a large portion of people undecided around 15%. But for swing states and nationally for two way polls Biden is winning nationally by around 2% in the majority of those polls and is around 1-2% away within the margin of error in swing state polls. That’s because when people are given a choice between Trump or Biden, many will be siding with Biden in swings states or breaking even.
This is the same reason why Republicans were projected to win the House by 30 to 40 seats last year in the same polls and ended up winning by only 4 seats and now have a 1 seat majority.
@ukraine_map @ChrisDJackson: 538’s methodology is very complex. Other estimates from CNN and the Economist showing a Trump landslide are not very accurate or anymore accurate than 538.
For example, let’s take Virginia, a state Biden very likely will win. The polls show around 40% for Biden and 40% for Trump now, but for Democratic Senators shows them winning by 5-10%. That’s because around 15% to 20% of the voters have not made their decision yet which is why we are seeing both Trump and Biden in a three way race with 3rd party’s polling very low at around 40% each.
Closer to Election Day most of those 15% to 20% of voters will make a decision, and in a state like Virginia it will very likely be Biden, and in Michigan it will break close to even. 538 is not flawed, they are making an estimate based on many different factors including historical ones, one is that polls 4 months out are not very representative of how the election will be. In 3 way polls Biden is losing to Trump by 1-3% on average, with a large portion of people undecided around 15%. But for swing states and nationally for two way polls Biden is winning nationally by around 2% in the majority of those polls and is around 1-2% away within the margin of error in swing state polls. That’s because when people are given a choice between Trump or Biden, many will be siding with Biden in swings states or breaking even.
This is the same reason why Republicans were projected to win the House by 30 to 40 seats last year in the same polls and ended up winning by only 4 seats and now have a 1 seat majority.
The Lookout (Twitter)
RT @RALee85: Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov visited the Eastern Group of Forces command post led by Eastern GOF commander Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik. The video also shows Sergey Rudskoy.
t.me/mod_russia/41088
RT @RALee85: Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov visited the Eastern Group of Forces command post led by Eastern GOF commander Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik. The video also shows Sergey Rudskoy.
t.me/mod_russia/41088
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Status-6 (Twitter)
RT @YonhapNews: (LEAD) Korean American expert on N. Korea accused of acting as agent for S. Korea: NYT
RT @YonhapNews: (LEAD) Korean American expert on N. Korea accused of acting as agent for S. Korea: NYT
Yonhap News Agency
(LEAD) Korean American expert on N. Korea accused of acting as agent for S. Korea: NYT
(ATTN: RECASTS paras 2, 4-5; ADDS details in paras 7-10)By Song Sang-ho WASHINGTON, July...
Status-6 (Twitter)
RT @JM_Szuba: New: US and coalition forces at Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq intercepted two drones today, per a US defense official.
No injuries were reported. 1/2
RT @JM_Szuba: New: US and coalition forces at Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq intercepted two drones today, per a US defense official.
No injuries were reported. 1/2
Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
@JayinKyiv @POTUS: And then go more off script more like when he said “I love this phrase” because it helps him get the message across and he sounds more authentic.
@JayinKyiv @POTUS: And then go more off script more like when he said “I love this phrase” because it helps him get the message across and he sounds more authentic.
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Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Локация: Джерельное (https://maps.app.goo.gl/i9edqaqvokhRLtnB7), Сватовский р-н, Луганская обл. via @BautinDima
Локация: Джерельное (https://maps.app.goo.gl/i9edqaqvokhRLtnB7), Сватовский р-н, Луганская обл. via @BautinDima
The Lookout (Twitter)
RT @Drox_Maritime: 🔺OOA activity - Update
Russian Navy Northern Fleet tug “Nikolay Chiker” likely concluded a 6-day loiter 30NM W of Alesund, PM 16 July 2024.
Unit likely to RV with B-448 Tambov, BPK-605 Adm Levchenko & BDK-010 Ivan Gren & proceed north ENR RTP Severomorsk. @shipohollic
RT @Drox_Maritime: 🔺OOA activity - Update
Russian Navy Northern Fleet tug “Nikolay Chiker” likely concluded a 6-day loiter 30NM W of Alesund, PM 16 July 2024.
Unit likely to RV with B-448 Tambov, BPK-605 Adm Levchenko & BDK-010 Ivan Gren & proceed north ENR RTP Severomorsk. @shipohollic
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Necro Mancer (Twitter)
#Екатеринбург, вот и памятник на Широкореченском кладбище воткнули
t.me/rian_ru/253602?single #Журавлев #груз200 #роа
#Екатеринбург, вот и памятник на Широкореченском кладбище воткнули
t.me/rian_ru/253602?single #Журавлев #груз200 #роа
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IgorGirkin (Twitter)
"Протягом минулої доби зафіксовано 112 бойових зіткнень"
👀 https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1813444714516856979#m
"Протягом минулої доби зафіксовано 112 бойових зіткнень"
👀 https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1813444714516856979#m