Rob Lee (Twitter)
It isn't just involuntary mobilized soldiers and prisoners, they are mostly getting volunteers who are willing to go into costly assaults. The quality, of course, varies, but the quantitative advantage is a serious problem. 14/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1735754140536435144#m
It isn't just involuntary mobilized soldiers and prisoners, they are mostly getting volunteers who are willing to go into costly assaults. The quality, of course, varies, but the quantitative advantage is a serious problem. 14/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1735754140536435144#m
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Without this manpower advantage, Russia's artillery and airpower advantage would not be sufficient for Russia to make gains on the battlefield. The relative manpower situation is likely the most important factor that will determine the war's trajectory, particularly if Russia can sustain recruiting 20-30k a month. 15/
Without this manpower advantage, Russia's artillery and airpower advantage would not be sufficient for Russia to make gains on the battlefield. The relative manpower situation is likely the most important factor that will determine the war's trajectory, particularly if Russia can sustain recruiting 20-30k a month. 15/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The immediate problem is that Russia continues to advance on the battlefield, and has reached important locations while Ukraine faced ammunition shortages. Russia is bringing up reserves to Chasiv Yar, and will likely soon begin an assault on the city. 16/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1778947752929440148#m
The immediate problem is that Russia continues to advance on the battlefield, and has reached important locations while Ukraine faced ammunition shortages. Russia is bringing up reserves to Chasiv Yar, and will likely soon begin an assault on the city. 16/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1778947752929440148#m
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russian forces are also expanding their foothold in Ocheretyne, which threatens Ukrainian positions nearby, and they have advanced into Krasnohrivka and have made recent gains on the Marinka-Novomykhailivka front. 16/
https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.1163/37.4383
Russian forces are also expanding their foothold in Ocheretyne, which threatens Ukrainian positions nearby, and they have advanced into Krasnohrivka and have made recent gains on the Marinka-Novomykhailivka front. 16/
https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.1163/37.4383
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Even with increased ammunition deliveries/expenditure, Ukraine might not be able to hold Chasiv Yar and other of these towns/cities, and Russia faces more favorable terrain once they get past Chasiv Yar, which could lead to an increase in the rate of advance. If Chasiv Yar falls, it will also put Ukrainian positions south of the city at risk. This is true for further Russian advances elsewhere. The delays in aid/mobilization have been costly. 18/
Even with increased ammunition deliveries/expenditure, Ukraine might not be able to hold Chasiv Yar and other of these towns/cities, and Russia faces more favorable terrain once they get past Chasiv Yar, which could lead to an increase in the rate of advance. If Chasiv Yar falls, it will also put Ukrainian positions south of the city at risk. This is true for further Russian advances elsewhere. The delays in aid/mobilization have been costly. 18/
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
If Ukraine can stabilize the front and fix the manpower situation in 2024 when Russia has a number of advantages, 2025 could be more favorable because Western production capacity will increase and Russian equipment losses could become a greater issue. If the manpower situation does not improve, then the second half of 2024 will likely be more difficult for Ukraine than the first half. 19/
If Ukraine can stabilize the front and fix the manpower situation in 2024 when Russia has a number of advantages, 2025 could be more favorable because Western production capacity will increase and Russian equipment losses could become a greater issue. If the manpower situation does not improve, then the second half of 2024 will likely be more difficult for Ukraine than the first half. 19/
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
This bill will be vital, but it needs to be part of a broader long-term strategy for Ukraine. Western countries need to consider how to help Ukraine compensate for Russia's current advantages, including increased deliveries of long-range missiles. 20/
This bill will be vital, but it needs to be part of a broader long-term strategy for Ukraine. Western countries need to consider how to help Ukraine compensate for Russia's current advantages, including increased deliveries of long-range missiles. 20/
vxTwitter / fixvx
Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael)
Much depends on the U.S. and European countries resourcing Ukraine's war effort, but it is important to articulate a vision for how those resources might best be used to rebuild Ukraine's advantage. Written with my good colleagues @RALee85 and @MassDara.…
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Updated map showing Russian gains. Russian forces seized Soloviove and Semenivka, have seized most of Ocheretyne and Kyslivka near Kupiansk, and advanced near Novokalynove and in Ivanivske near Chasiv Yar.
https://deepstatemap.live/en#16/49.6407/37.9145
t.me/DeepStateUA/19328
t.me/DeepStateUA/19329 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1783619526136840477#m
Updated map showing Russian gains. Russian forces seized Soloviove and Semenivka, have seized most of Ocheretyne and Kyslivka near Kupiansk, and advanced near Novokalynove and in Ivanivske near Chasiv Yar.
https://deepstatemap.live/en#16/49.6407/37.9145
t.me/DeepStateUA/19328
t.me/DeepStateUA/19329 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1783619526136840477#m
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
@ScottyWitte: Yes, but less effective than earlier in the war because of Russian EW.
@ScottyWitte: Yes, but less effective than earlier in the war because of Russian EW.
Vxtwitter
vxTwitter / fixvx
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Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
RT @Schizointel: We should be sending those f-16s and f-15s that are being retired to Ukraine. No longer meet the needs of the Air Force and will not hurt combat readiness https://twitter.com/RangeSidewinder/status/1783920604904845331#m
RT @Schizointel: We should be sending those f-16s and f-15s that are being retired to Ukraine. No longer meet the needs of the Air Force and will not hurt combat readiness https://twitter.com/RangeSidewinder/status/1783920604904845331#m
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Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
@John_A_Ridge: Maybe GLSDB can be adapted or modifications can be made for them to be effective in the war.
@John_A_Ridge: Maybe GLSDB can be adapted or modifications can be made for them to be effective in the war.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Illia Yevlash, the Head of Public Relations for Ukraine’s Air Force, said a Russian Su-57 fighter launched a Kh-59 or Kh-69 missile at Kryvyi Rih yesterday.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/26/7453103/
Illia Yevlash, the Head of Public Relations for Ukraine’s Air Force, said a Russian Su-57 fighter launched a Kh-59 or Kh-69 missile at Kryvyi Rih yesterday.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/26/7453103/
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