Rob Lee (Twitter)
The PDA package will also provide other critical ammunition like anti-tank mines and Javelin/TOW ATGMs. Recent Russian advances have demonstrated that increased numbers of FPVs cannot replace artillery, mines, and ATGMs. Russia's assault on Vuhledar in 2023 and Ukraine's offensive last summer demonstrated how effective mines can be for defending forces. 4/
https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1783156108133024025
The PDA package will also provide other critical ammunition like anti-tank mines and Javelin/TOW ATGMs. Recent Russian advances have demonstrated that increased numbers of FPVs cannot replace artillery, mines, and ATGMs. Russia's assault on Vuhledar in 2023 and Ukraine's offensive last summer demonstrated how effective mines can be for defending forces. 4/
https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1783156108133024025
vxTwitter / fixvx - View original tweet for full quality
Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel)
Contents of the new $1 billion U.S. weaponry and equipment package for Ukraine, per @DeptofDefense:
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Further deliveries of armored vehicles will also be important. Many Ukrainian brigades don't have sufficient armored vehicles, and combat losses often aren't replaced. This leads to higher casualties. Bradleys are very popular, armored humvees will help, and further M113 would be very useful for CASEVAC. 5/
https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1783595582881169600
Further deliveries of armored vehicles will also be important. Many Ukrainian brigades don't have sufficient armored vehicles, and combat losses often aren't replaced. This leads to higher casualties. Bradleys are very popular, armored humvees will help, and further M113 would be very useful for CASEVAC. 5/
https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1783595582881169600
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Konrad Muzyka - Rochan Consulting (@konrad_muzyka)
"In the Ukrainian army company where Sgt. Magura serves, only three of the 11 armored personnel carriers they had in 2023 are left."
【QRT of F smutas (@FSmutas):】
'@marcin_ogdowski @WarNewsPL1 @MarekKozubel @Maciej_Korowaj Niech ten artykuł z linku, który…
【QRT of F smutas (@FSmutas):】
'@marcin_ogdowski @WarNewsPL1 @MarekKozubel @Maciej_Korowaj Niech ten artykuł z linku, który…
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Air defense is another critical Ukrainian need. Russia has resumed its missile campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and UMPK glide bombs, which played a key role in Russia's seizure of Avdiivka, are a serious problem. More recently, Russian Su-25 attack aircraft have been operating closer to the front than normal, which indicates a lack of SHORAD and MANPADS. 6/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1781071897419014195
Air defense is another critical Ukrainian need. Russia has resumed its missile campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and UMPK glide bombs, which played a key role in Russia's seizure of Avdiivka, are a serious problem. More recently, Russian Su-25 attack aircraft have been operating closer to the front than normal, which indicates a lack of SHORAD and MANPADS. 6/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1781071897419014195
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Rob Lee (@RALee85)
Video of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating close to Chasiv Yar. A clear sign of a lack of Ukrainian air defense ammunition.
https://t.me/milinfolive/120607
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/66374
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https://t.me/milinfolive/120607
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/66374
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Dan (Twitter)
RT @KareemRifai: Elizabeth Tsurkov is a PhD researcher at Princeton. She was kidnapped over a year ago by Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq.
Yesterday, the flag of the sister organization of her kidnappers was raised at the Princeton protests.
RT @KareemRifai: Elizabeth Tsurkov is a PhD researcher at Princeton. She was kidnapped over a year ago by Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq.
Yesterday, the flag of the sister organization of her kidnappers was raised at the Princeton protests.
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Dan (Twitter)
RT @naalsio26: 26 April 2024
Russian-occupied eastern #Ukraine
Destroyed Russian T-90M
This appears to be a previously undocumented loss.
t.me/zovchuvashiy/4600
RT @naalsio26: 26 April 2024
Russian-occupied eastern #Ukraine
Destroyed Russian T-90M
This appears to be a previously undocumented loss.
t.me/zovchuvashiy/4600
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
The USAI package announced today includes Patriot and NASAMS missiles and the PDA included Stinger MANPADS and RIM-7/AIM-9M missiles reportedly for FrankeSAM systems. Stingers could help push Su-25 further from the front line, and Patriots are critical both for defending cities and infrastructure from Russian ballistic missiles and also to counter Russian Su-34 bombers that drop UMPK glide bombs. 7/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1783926909316878763
The USAI package announced today includes Patriot and NASAMS missiles and the PDA included Stinger MANPADS and RIM-7/AIM-9M missiles reportedly for FrankeSAM systems. Stingers could help push Su-25 further from the front line, and Patriots are critical both for defending cities and infrastructure from Russian ballistic missiles and also to counter Russian Su-34 bombers that drop UMPK glide bombs. 7/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1783926909316878763
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Rob Lee (@RALee85)
The DoD Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) package includes:
-Patriot and NASAMS missiles
-Equipment to integrate Western air defense launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine's air defense systems
-Counter-UAS equipment and systems
-Munitions…
-Patriot and NASAMS missiles
-Equipment to integrate Western air defense launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine's air defense systems
-Counter-UAS equipment and systems
-Munitions…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The question is whether production of these missiles is sufficient to meet Ukraine's continued air defense needs over time, especially with increased Russian production of Shahed UAS and missiles. F-16 fighters and their airbases will be another priority target for Russian missiles that will require air defense coverage. It also depends how successful the various FrankenSAM programs prove to be. 8/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1747624700941836625
The question is whether production of these missiles is sufficient to meet Ukraine's continued air defense needs over time, especially with increased Russian production of Shahed UAS and missiles. F-16 fighters and their airbases will be another priority target for Russian missiles that will require air defense coverage. It also depends how successful the various FrankenSAM programs prove to be. 8/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1747624700941836625
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Rob Lee (@RALee85)
Description of some of the variants in the FrankenSAM program.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/28/us/politics/air-defense-ukraine-frankensam.html
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/28/us/politics/air-defense-ukraine-frankensam.html
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Manpower has become the most pressing issue though, which was exacerbated by reduced deliveries of ammunition and equipment over the winter. Ukraine's summer offensive primarily culminated when it ran out of infantry, and Ukraine has struggled to replace combat losses since then. 9/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1753174234455502976
Manpower has become the most pressing issue though, which was exacerbated by reduced deliveries of ammunition and equipment over the winter. Ukraine's summer offensive primarily culminated when it ran out of infantry, and Ukraine has struggled to replace combat losses since then. 9/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1753174234455502976
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Rob Lee (@RALee85)
“'There really aren’t enough people,' said a major who is commanding a unit in eastern Ukraine...'Taking into account that the Russians have been conducting offensive actions for several months, mainly in eastern Ukraine, the need for people is critical,'”…
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
This means that Ukrainian brigades are understrength, and Ukraine lacks sufficient reserves to respond to Russian advances, so units are pulled from one part of the front to attempt to stop advances elsewhere. Ukrainian infantry need to be rotated more often or there will be a growing risk of exhaustion. 10/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1777210985813573835
This means that Ukrainian brigades are understrength, and Ukraine lacks sufficient reserves to respond to Russian advances, so units are pulled from one part of the front to attempt to stop advances elsewhere. Ukrainian infantry need to be rotated more often or there will be a growing risk of exhaustion. 10/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1777210985813573835
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Rob Lee (@RALee85)
From a battalion commander with Ukraine's 59th Motorized Brigade from 2 weeks ago,
"what is needed now are people...Because even young guys can’t stand to spend two years in the trenches, their health is not good enough. And in our army, the average age…
"what is needed now are people...Because even young guys can’t stand to spend two years in the trenches, their health is not good enough. And in our army, the average age…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Ukraine has passed a new mobilization bill that provides incentives for volunteers and increases the pool of men available to be drafted. Hopefully, this will improve the manpower situation, but it will take time to mobilize and train soldiers/units. 11/
Ukraine has passed a new mobilization bill that provides incentives for volunteers and increases the pool of men available to be drafted. Hopefully, this will improve the manpower situation, but it will take time to mobilize and train soldiers/units. 11/
vxTwitter / fixvx
The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent)
⚡Zelensky signs mobilization bill.
Ukraine's bill on mobilization has been signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to the online portal of Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, on April 16.
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-mobilization…
Ukraine's bill on mobilization has been signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to the online portal of Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, on April 16.
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-mobilization…
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
More concerning is that the manpower issue has been known for some time, but has not been fixed. The longer it takes to improve the manpower situation, the less likely it becomes that Ukraine can conduct a offensive in 2025. The new NATO-trained/equipped brigades last summer did not have enough time to train together, and Russian defenses will still be strong. New soldiers/units need to be mobilized to replace current losses and trained for 2025. 12/
More concerning is that the manpower issue has been known for some time, but has not been fixed. The longer it takes to improve the manpower situation, the less likely it becomes that Ukraine can conduct a offensive in 2025. The new NATO-trained/equipped brigades last summer did not have enough time to train together, and Russian defenses will still be strong. New soldiers/units need to be mobilized to replace current losses and trained for 2025. 12/
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
At the same time, one of the most important factors in the war last year was that Russia was able to significantly improve its manpower situation, recruiting more than 300,000 volunteers. 13/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1760236128324534682#m
At the same time, one of the most important factors in the war last year was that Russia was able to significantly improve its manpower situation, recruiting more than 300,000 volunteers. 13/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1760236128324534682#m
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
It isn't just involuntary mobilized soldiers and prisoners, they are mostly getting volunteers who are willing to go into costly assaults. The quality, of course, varies, but the quantitative advantage is a serious problem. 14/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1735754140536435144#m
It isn't just involuntary mobilized soldiers and prisoners, they are mostly getting volunteers who are willing to go into costly assaults. The quality, of course, varies, but the quantitative advantage is a serious problem. 14/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1735754140536435144#m
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Without this manpower advantage, Russia's artillery and airpower advantage would not be sufficient for Russia to make gains on the battlefield. The relative manpower situation is likely the most important factor that will determine the war's trajectory, particularly if Russia can sustain recruiting 20-30k a month. 15/
Without this manpower advantage, Russia's artillery and airpower advantage would not be sufficient for Russia to make gains on the battlefield. The relative manpower situation is likely the most important factor that will determine the war's trajectory, particularly if Russia can sustain recruiting 20-30k a month. 15/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The immediate problem is that Russia continues to advance on the battlefield, and has reached important locations while Ukraine faced ammunition shortages. Russia is bringing up reserves to Chasiv Yar, and will likely soon begin an assault on the city. 16/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1778947752929440148#m
The immediate problem is that Russia continues to advance on the battlefield, and has reached important locations while Ukraine faced ammunition shortages. Russia is bringing up reserves to Chasiv Yar, and will likely soon begin an assault on the city. 16/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1778947752929440148#m
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