Danvan (Twitter)

RT @uspenovka19632: Я ж казав,що планували на підвищення,за здачу Очеретиного.Кадр Сирського,він його тягне і прикриває. https://twitter.com/canisbandera/status/1783589688885850334#m

The Lookout (Twitter)

RT @Deepstate_UA: ⚔️ Ворог прорвав оборону в Кислівці

🐷Сьогодні о 10 годині ранку кацапи розпочали масовані контрнаступальні дії у Кислівці. На кінець доби вони закріпилися у населеному пункті. Місцем удару обрали підрозділ ТрО, який обмежений в силах та засобах. Хлопцям прикро втрачати позиції, але без підтримки тяжкого озброєння ситуація може суттєво погіршитися. Якщо Очеретине не стало уроком для ОТУ/ОУВ/ОСУВів, то тут вже ніякий медійний розголос не змусить підняти дупу і налагодити штабних управлінців щось зробити. Рік тому, коли провалився фронт біля Новоєгорівки, Сирський особисто приїздив і контролював відновлення позицій.

📍 http://deepstatemap.live/#15/49.6394/37.9147

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Some thoughts about the supplemental bill. This is good news, but it will primarily help Ukraine defend in 2024 and into 2025. Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and it doesn't fix all of Ukraine's issues. It should be seen as one part of a long-term strategy.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Ukraine has had three main problems since Russia seized the initiative in October: ammunition, manpower, and fortifications. Ukraine is making progress building fortifications and multiple defensive lines, but defenses on many of the key parts of the front are still underdeveloped, contributing to Russian advances. 2/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

The bill and first PDA aid package announced this week will provide a quick boost to Ukraine's defenses. But it is important to keep in mind that the limitations aren't just appropriated funds but also production capacity and size of stockpiles. Greater artillery ammunition deliveries will help reduce Russia's 5-6:1 artillery advantage, but it will not give Ukraine parity. 3/

‌Rob Lee (Twitter)

The PDA package will also provide other critical ammunition like anti-tank mines and Javelin/TOW ATGMs. Recent Russian advances have demonstrated that increased numbers of FPVs cannot replace artillery, mines, and ATGMs. Russia's assault on Vuhledar in 2023 and Ukraine's offensive last summer demonstrated how effective mines can be for defending forces. 4/
https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1783156108133024025

‌Rob Lee (Twitter)

Further deliveries of armored vehicles will also be important. Many Ukrainian brigades don't have sufficient armored vehicles, and combat losses often aren't replaced. This leads to higher casualties. Bradleys are very popular, armored humvees will help, and further M113 would be very useful for CASEVAC. 5/
https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1783595582881169600

‌Rob Lee (Twitter)

Air defense is another critical Ukrainian need. Russia has resumed its missile campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and UMPK glide bombs, which played a key role in Russia's seizure of Avdiivka, are a serious problem. More recently, Russian Su-25 attack aircraft have been operating closer to the front than normal, which indicates a lack of SHORAD and MANPADS. 6/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1781071897419014195

Dan (Twitter)

RT @naalsio26: 26 April 2024
Russian-occupied eastern #Ukraine

Destroyed Russian T-90M

This appears to be a previously undocumented loss.

t.me/zovchuvashiy/4600

IgorGirkin (Twitter)

Unpleasant situation for ru worms

‌Rob Lee (Twitter)

The USAI package announced today includes Patriot and NASAMS missiles and the PDA included Stinger MANPADS and RIM-7/AIM-9M missiles reportedly for FrankeSAM systems. Stingers could help push Su-25 further from the front line, and Patriots are critical both for defending cities and infrastructure from Russian ballistic missiles and also to counter Russian Su-34 bombers that drop UMPK glide bombs. 7/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1783926909316878763

‌Rob Lee (Twitter)

The question is whether production of these missiles is sufficient to meet Ukraine's continued air defense needs over time, especially with increased Russian production of Shahed UAS and missiles. F-16 fighters and their airbases will be another priority target for Russian missiles that will require air defense coverage. It also depends how successful the various FrankenSAM programs prove to be. 8/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1747624700941836625

‌Rob Lee (Twitter)

Manpower has become the most pressing issue though, which was exacerbated by reduced deliveries of ammunition and equipment over the winter. Ukraine's summer offensive primarily culminated when it ran out of infantry, and Ukraine has struggled to replace combat losses since then. 9/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1753174234455502976

‌Rob Lee (Twitter)

This means that Ukrainian brigades are understrength, and Ukraine lacks sufficient reserves to respond to Russian advances, so units are pulled from one part of the front to attempt to stop advances elsewhere. Ukrainian infantry need to be rotated more often or there will be a growing risk of exhaustion. 10/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1777210985813573835

‌Rob Lee (Twitter)

Ukraine has passed a new mobilization bill that provides incentives for volunteers and increases the pool of men available to be drafted. Hopefully, this will improve the manpower situation, but it will take time to mobilize and train soldiers/units. 11/