Rob Lee (Twitter)
Obviously, it is critical that the US pass the supplemental aid package as soon as possible, but, looking at production/stockpile estimates, the relative ammunition situation for Ukraine in 2024 will not be as favorable as it was this summer.
Obviously, it is critical that the US pass the supplemental aid package as soon as possible, but, looking at production/stockpile estimates, the relative ammunition situation for Ukraine in 2024 will not be as favorable as it was this summer.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Which is why the next strategic-level Ukrainian offensive may not be possible until 2025.
Which is why the next strategic-level Ukrainian offensive may not be possible until 2025.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
RT @OSINTua: Krynky, Kherson oblast. Short thread🧵
My company takes part at this operation since the beginning. For this quite short period of time managed to destroy 20 enemy artillery pieces, two tanks and a couple of AFV.
Using HIMARS, FPV drones and something else👇
RT @OSINTua: Krynky, Kherson oblast. Short thread🧵
My company takes part at this operation since the beginning. For this quite short period of time managed to destroy 20 enemy artillery pieces, two tanks and a couple of AFV.
Using HIMARS, FPV drones and something else👇
🤮2
The Lookout (Twitter)
RT @auonsson: SE Min of Defence @PlJonson:
"GPS-jamming is serious../..we have high competence to identify and possibly attribute these disturbances"
Russia?
"Cant comment specifics../..reckless../..we saw it before in connection to RU exercises../..in FI and NO."
RT @auonsson: SE Min of Defence @PlJonson:
"GPS-jamming is serious../..we have high competence to identify and possibly attribute these disturbances"
Russia?
"Cant comment specifics../..reckless../..we saw it before in connection to RU exercises../..in FI and NO."
Sverige Radio
Försvarsministern: ”Allvarligt att GPS-nätet slås ut”
Försvarsminister Pål Jonson säger att det är allvarligt att flera östersjöländers, däribland Sveriges GPS-nät stördes ut under julhelgen, något SVT var ...
The Lookout (Twitter)
RT @Drox_Maritime: 🔺OOA activity - New
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet Pr.304/II Amur class repair ship “PM-82” highly likely departed Tartus, 5 January 2024.
It is likely PM-82 is returning to Baltiysk after a 4 month Mediterranean Sea deployment. @shipohollic
RT @Drox_Maritime: 🔺OOA activity - New
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet Pr.304/II Amur class repair ship “PM-82” highly likely departed Tartus, 5 January 2024.
It is likely PM-82 is returning to Baltiysk after a 4 month Mediterranean Sea deployment. @shipohollic
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)
Strike on the Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS. Oleshki forest, Kherson region.
Strike on the Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS. Oleshki forest, Kherson region.
👏9🔥8👍1
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@iamtherealgrout: Ukraine has better artillery + crews, but Russia will have a quantitative advantage and Russian EW is affecting GPS guided munitions that Ukraine has received.
@iamtherealgrout: Ukraine has better artillery + crews, but Russia will have a quantitative advantage and Russian EW is affecting GPS guided munitions that Ukraine has received.
The Lookout (Twitter)
RT @RALee85: Just to emphasize once again, Ukraine's summer offensive was made possible by a large shipment of artillery ammunition from South Korea. Ukraine's ammunition expenditure rate was always going to decrease this winter, though the lack of appropriated US funds has exacerbated this. https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/1743561671472222714#m
RT @RALee85: Just to emphasize once again, Ukraine's summer offensive was made possible by a large shipment of artillery ammunition from South Korea. Ukraine's ammunition expenditure rate was always going to decrease this winter, though the lack of appropriated US funds has exacerbated this. https://twitter.com/ulrichspeck/status/1743561671472222714#m
😢2👍1🔥1
The Lookout (Twitter)
RT @ArmsControlWonk: The case for the Russian missile that struck Kharkiv on January 2 being a North Koran Hwasong-11 variant is a very, very strong. A short thread building on the work of the #OSINTatMIIS team, especially the amazing @DuitsmanMS.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/04/kirby-russia-used-north-korean-missiles-in-ukraine-00133879
RT @ArmsControlWonk: The case for the Russian missile that struck Kharkiv on January 2 being a North Koran Hwasong-11 variant is a very, very strong. A short thread building on the work of the #OSINTatMIIS team, especially the amazing @DuitsmanMS.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/04/kirby-russia-used-north-korean-missiles-in-ukraine-00133879
😁1
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@PatrickBury @shashj @graham_euan: Dunno, North Korea reportedly provided ammo to Wagner back in 2022.
@PatrickBury @shashj @graham_euan: Dunno, North Korea reportedly provided ammo to Wagner back in 2022.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@CLRans82: Partially. Working on something about that at the moment. They certainly can't replace artillery, but they are a means of partially compensating for a lack of artillery ammunition.
@CLRans82: Partially. Working on something about that at the moment. They certainly can't replace artillery, but they are a means of partially compensating for a lack of artillery ammunition.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@RuneLinding: I don't know. The problem is that the US has also tapped into its stockpiles, so I'm not sure South Korea could provide a large batch again without assuming too much risk from their perspective.
@RuneLinding: I don't know. The problem is that the US has also tapped into its stockpiles, so I'm not sure South Korea could provide a large batch again without assuming too much risk from their perspective.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@alessionaval: Also, Japan backfilling Patriot missiles so the US can provide more to Ukraine.
@alessionaval: Also, Japan backfilling Patriot missiles so the US can provide more to Ukraine.
U.S. Department of Defense
U.S. Department of Defense Statement on Japan's Decision to Transfer Patriot Missiles to the United States
The United States welcomes Japan's announcement that it will transfer Patriot interceptor missiles to the United States to replenish U.S. inventories.
The Lookout (Twitter)
@RALee85: 1/
Agree
Artillery ammo availability and having enough shells on hand to achieve a good enough relative weight of fire over time is a key requirement for enabling the next Ukrainian strategic offensive
Western production isn't increasing quick enough to achieve this before '25
@RALee85: 1/
Agree
Artillery ammo availability and having enough shells on hand to achieve a good enough relative weight of fire over time is a key requirement for enabling the next Ukrainian strategic offensive
Western production isn't increasing quick enough to achieve this before '25
vxTwitter / fixvx
Rob Lee (@RALee85)
Which is why the next strategic-level Ukrainian offensive may not be possible until 2025.
💖 140 🔁 9
💖 140 🔁 9
The Lookout (Twitter)
2/
To enable a new offensive, artillery ammo production and deliveries needs to be high enough to cover daily expenditure, which of course increases when the Russians are attacking, and leave a large enough surplus that can be stockpiled for an offensive.
2/
To enable a new offensive, artillery ammo production and deliveries needs to be high enough to cover daily expenditure, which of course increases when the Russians are attacking, and leave a large enough surplus that can be stockpiled for an offensive.
🤡1
The Lookout (Twitter)
RT @Drox_Maritime: OOA activity - Update
The departure of the tug “Sergey Balk” strongly suggests that Pacific Fleet Kilo T636.3 class submarine B-588 ‘Ufa” will conduct a short (3-6 month) operational deployment in the Mediterranean Sea. @KaptainLOMA
RT @Drox_Maritime: OOA activity - Update
The departure of the tug “Sergey Balk” strongly suggests that Pacific Fleet Kilo T636.3 class submarine B-588 ‘Ufa” will conduct a short (3-6 month) operational deployment in the Mediterranean Sea. @KaptainLOMA