Rob Lee (Twitter)
It will be interesting to see what Wagner's prominent assault detachment commanders do. In many ways, they are the center of gravity for Wagner and are influential. I would assume the Russian security services had a plan in place before shooting down Prigozhin's plan (if true).
It will be interesting to see what Wagner's prominent assault detachment commanders do. In many ways, they are the center of gravity for Wagner and are influential. I would assume the Russian security services had a plan in place before shooting down Prigozhin's plan (if true).
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Wagner has not played a role in Ukraine since the mutiny (they were replaced in Bakhmut at the beginning of June), so it isn't clear if this will have any effect on Ukraine's counteroffensive. Keep in mind, that Wagner's role in Ukraine required significant support from the MoD.
Wagner has not played a role in Ukraine since the mutiny (they were replaced in Bakhmut at the beginning of June), so it isn't clear if this will have any effect on Ukraine's counteroffensive. Keep in mind, that Wagner's role in Ukraine required significant support from the MoD.
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Mike @KofmanMichael and I wrote about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive and what comes afterwards. Although Ukraine will likely make gains, this offensive is unlikely to end the war. Western countries need a plan for supporting Ukraine for a long war.
foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/r…
Mike @KofmanMichael and I wrote about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive and what comes afterwards. Although Ukraine will likely make gains, this offensive is unlikely to end the war. Western countries need a plan for supporting Ukraine for a long war.
foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/r…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The security services likely needed time to figure out how to control Wagner's activities overseas. There are reports that some Wagner leaders defected to Redut as its replacement. It was an opportunity to remove not just Prigozhin, but also Utkin and other key leaders at once.
The security services likely needed time to figure out how to control Wagner's activities overseas. There are reports that some Wagner leaders defected to Redut as its replacement. It was an opportunity to remove not just Prigozhin, but also Utkin and other key leaders at once.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
It will be interesting to see what Wagner's prominent assault detachment commanders do. In many ways, they are the center of gravity for Wagner and are influential. I would assume the Russian security services had a plan in place before shooting down Prigozhin's plan (if true).
It will be interesting to see what Wagner's prominent assault detachment commanders do. In many ways, they are the center of gravity for Wagner and are influential. I would assume the Russian security services had a plan in place before shooting down Prigozhin's plan (if true).
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Wagner has not played a role in Ukraine since the mutiny (they were replaced in Bakhmut at the beginning of June), so it isn't clear if this will have any effect on Ukraine's counteroffensive. Keep in mind, that Wagner's role in Ukraine required significant support from the MoD.
Wagner has not played a role in Ukraine since the mutiny (they were replaced in Bakhmut at the beginning of June), so it isn't clear if this will have any effect on Ukraine's counteroffensive. Keep in mind, that Wagner's role in Ukraine required significant support from the MoD.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Mike @KofmanMichael and I wrote about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive and what comes afterwards. Although Ukraine will likely make gains, this offensive is unlikely to end the war. Western countries need a plan for supporting Ukraine for a long war.
foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/r…
Mike @KofmanMichael and I wrote about the upcoming Ukrainian offensive and what comes afterwards. Although Ukraine will likely make gains, this offensive is unlikely to end the war. Western countries need a plan for supporting Ukraine for a long war.
foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/r…
Status-6 (Twitter)
RT @Shayan86: This video, claiming to show the deadly crash of a plane carrying Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been viewed nearly a million times.
It shows the shooting down of a Russian Ilyushin Il-22M aircrat during Wagner's mutiny in June.
RT @Shayan86: This video, claiming to show the deadly crash of a plane carrying Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been viewed nearly a million times.
It shows the shooting down of a Russian Ilyushin Il-22M aircrat during Wagner's mutiny in June.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
RT @Stanovaya: A few thoughts in light of Prigozhin's death.
1️⃣ No matter the cause of the plane crash, everyone will see this as an act of retaliation and retribution, and the Kremlin won't particularly counteract this view. From Putin's perspective, as well as many among the security and military officials, Prigozhin's death should serve as a lesson to any potential successors.
2️⃣ I see no reason why Putin would need Prigozhin in any capacity after the mutiny. The only question was whether to spare his life: I had no doubt that the Kremlin would gradually remove all geopolitical projects out from under him. After the mutiny, Prigozhin ceased to be a partner of the state and under no circumstances could he regain that status. He was also not forgiven. Prigozhin was only needed for some time after the mutiny to smoothly dismantle Wagner in Russia and move it to Belarus under new leadership.
3️⃣ Prigozhin was not a classic traitor: he did not consciously betray his homeland, but rather "lost his mind," having significant merits from Putin's perspective. The question was whether this would be enough to let him live. The issue here is that even if on a personal level, Putin might have been affirmative (which is not a given), on the state level (as Putin perceives it), it would be a vulnerability. And it was. A lively, energetic, and idea-filled Prigozhin was undoubtedly a walking issue for the regime, embodying Putin's political humiliation.
4️⃣ For a significant portion of the politicized, conservative public, Prigozhin's death is a well-deserved outcome. Even those who sympathized with him largely condemned the mutiny, believing it weakened the regime during wartime (and they are right).
5️⃣ Prigozhin's death is a direct threat to everyone who stayed with him till the end or openly supported him. It's more likely to intimidate rather than inspire protests. So, no special reaction should be expected. There will be indignation, but no serious political consequences.
RT @Stanovaya: A few thoughts in light of Prigozhin's death.
1️⃣ No matter the cause of the plane crash, everyone will see this as an act of retaliation and retribution, and the Kremlin won't particularly counteract this view. From Putin's perspective, as well as many among the security and military officials, Prigozhin's death should serve as a lesson to any potential successors.
2️⃣ I see no reason why Putin would need Prigozhin in any capacity after the mutiny. The only question was whether to spare his life: I had no doubt that the Kremlin would gradually remove all geopolitical projects out from under him. After the mutiny, Prigozhin ceased to be a partner of the state and under no circumstances could he regain that status. He was also not forgiven. Prigozhin was only needed for some time after the mutiny to smoothly dismantle Wagner in Russia and move it to Belarus under new leadership.
3️⃣ Prigozhin was not a classic traitor: he did not consciously betray his homeland, but rather "lost his mind," having significant merits from Putin's perspective. The question was whether this would be enough to let him live. The issue here is that even if on a personal level, Putin might have been affirmative (which is not a given), on the state level (as Putin perceives it), it would be a vulnerability. And it was. A lively, energetic, and idea-filled Prigozhin was undoubtedly a walking issue for the regime, embodying Putin's political humiliation.
4️⃣ For a significant portion of the politicized, conservative public, Prigozhin's death is a well-deserved outcome. Even those who sympathized with him largely condemned the mutiny, believing it weakened the regime during wartime (and they are right).
5️⃣ Prigozhin's death is a direct threat to everyone who stayed with him till the end or openly supported him. It's more likely to intimidate rather than inspire protests. So, no special reaction should be expected. There will be indignation, but no serious political consequences.
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Dan (Twitter)
RT @DarthPutinKGB: It would make sense our air defense shot down Prigozhin’s jet as Russian surface to air missile systems are most effective against civilian aircraft.
RT @DarthPutinKGB: It would make sense our air defense shot down Prigozhin’s jet as Russian surface to air missile systems are most effective against civilian aircraft.
Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
@narrative_hole: But why aren't you showing the photos which have evidence of anti-aircraft missile fragments hitting the plane?
@narrative_hole: But why aren't you showing the photos which have evidence of anti-aircraft missile fragments hitting the plane?
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