‌The Lookout (Twitter)

1/5
Some get riled up over this article, but the message shouldn't suprise anyone by now. While things can change on the battlefield as operations continue, a major breakthrough seems unlikely.

I do hope we one day will get insight into the original Ukr plan for the summer. https://t.co/5P1WkUwLei

The Lookout (Twitter)

2/5
Why are we here now?

In regards to the nature of the discussion on the offensive, too high expectations plays an important role.

Ukr statments has played a part in raising the expectations, but Western sources, commentators and pundits bear a responsibility too.

The Lookout (Twitter)

3/5
As for operations on the ground I see three main explanations.

1: Internal AFU factors, the most important that they struggle to conduct operations at scale.

2: Deficiencies in Western support: AFV deliveries came late, in low numbers. Important capabilities withheld.

The Lookout (Twitter)

4/5
3: The Russian defensive effort. Here we have the enormous challenges posed by the fortified lines and minefields, but also the fact that the Russian defenders fights tenaciously, according to doctrine.

I think many underestimated the Russians going into spring and summer.

The Lookout (Twitter)

5/5
The offensive isn't over so final conclusions are premature.
How both sides will cope with prolonged attrition remains an open question.

What's important now, especially from the West in form of support, is to start preparing for the operations of 2024.

‌Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@Kingstyler88 https://t.co/Bu0mUGuDnZ

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

В БК въебали https://t.co/mA0mEFxoGP #RussianUkrainianWar

‌Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Локация: Георгиевка-Ключевое, Волновахский р-н, Донецкая обл. https://t.co/drs4F7dYA2

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

При съёмке ролика ни один бурят не пострадал https://t.me/zapiski_bb/938 #всрф #RussianUkrainianWar

The Lookout (Twitter)

@Sanderious As I say in the thread, I see deficiencies in Western support as one of three main explanations, but this is by no means the only factor that have influenced the situation.

Blaming everything on the West may be convenient, but the real world is much more complex.

IgorGirkin (Twitter)

RT @DefMon3: Fresh delivery to the meat cube factory.
40+ dead Russians in the Bakhmut direction.
https://t.co/j1dsWQXTNf

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

#Новопрокоповка, Запорожская обл., 17/08/23, эвакуация выжившего пилота российского вертолёта Ка-52 https://t.me/wargonzo/14437 #вксрф #потерьнет

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

RT @shashj: It’s fashionable to compare Kherson with the current offensive. I’ve probably done it myself. But Russian defences in each aren’t comparable. And more importantly the argument is unfalsifiable—you can keep making it, forever—unless you attach a timeframe to Russian collapse. https://t.co/GZyqCeHfgB

The Lookout (Twitter)

RT @jmalsin: Spotted from the Istanbul bureau this morning: The flagship of the US 6th Fleet, the USS Mount Whitney, arriving in port at a time of high tension in the Black Sea. Vessel ID by @YorukIsik

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

"Пока в Урожайном квартируют немцы, приходится заниматься новыми позициями. С тоской вспоминаю уютные подвалы и погреба Урожайного" (с) #всрф
https://t.co/tVmdZaQ43p https://t.co/rmBFdILInM