Rob Lee (Twitter)

RT @jaylyall_red5: Based on our studies in political science, I’d say: 1) this was a mutiny, not a coup; 2) mutinies are all about bargaining; 3) few mutinies lead to regime overthrow, even when concessions are made; 4) the effects of most mutinies are short-lived (cf. Dwyer 2017)

🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (Twitter)

#Ukraine: A Russian Strela-10 short-range air defense system was destroyed by a GMRLS strike of the Ukrainian Army, North of Kodema, #Donetsk Oblast.

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)

/5. Moreover, this is far from the first 🇺🇦 landing on the left bank. Such “landings” occurring regularly. Most often, the purpose of such landings is to establish control over small islands between swamps. Roughly shown on the map where most of these operations take place

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)

/6. Here is one example, the very first landing of the Ukrainian unit. Carlson unit sets the Ukrainian flag on the left bank of the Dnipro, early December 2022.
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@bayraktar_1love:
Technically speaking, the first Ukrainian flag on the left bank Kherson region
https://t.co/4FkLt9LAWd https://t.co/YXr7yZMKea https://t.co/c8FFj35nNj

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)

/7. Control of this swampy area is important to both sides.
When Russians had complete control there, Kherson constantly suffered from mortar shelling, anti-tank missiles and snipers. Establishment of 🇺🇦 control in this area makes it possible to secure Kherson, just a bit.

‌GeoConfirmed (Twitter)

Pavel Podvig, Senior Researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research and a researcher with the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University.

2/X
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@russianforces:
Can an armed group like Wagner take control of some of Russia's nuclear weapons and somehow use or detonate them? The short answer is no, it's virtually impossible. I wanted to write a longer thread, but things are happening way too fast. 1/

‌GeoConfirmed (Twitter)

William M. Moon, expert on Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR), nuclear security, and arms control with particular experience working on nuclear warhead security and arms control verification cooperation with Russia.

3/X
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@WilliamMMoon:
Interesting to note that this exact scenario was one that the 12th GUMO used in their nuc security exercise that my CTR team witnessed. On site response forces don’t have heavy arms, but are well trained to withstand an attack for some time to allow for regional response forces https://t.co/0O4VmJeQI2

‌GeoConfirmed (Twitter)

Matej Rafael Risko, Specialized in International Security and Warfare. Co-Founder of “Pohar cisteho” blog about foreign and defense policy. Primarily focused on modern conventional warfare, nuclear weapons and realism in international relations.

4/X
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@MatejRisko:
Maybe, but even achieving real physical control of the warheads is quite difficult (procedure before unblocking).
Just a few additional points:)

Without the 12th GUMO specialist, they surely wouldn't be able to complete the warhead. To speak about Iskanders (9N70 warhead)-below https://t.co/jRLGsYuLwv

Rob Lee (Twitter)

@CalibreObscura Yeah that was interesting, but we know Wagner has used improvised gun trucks before. If the VDV is using S-60 gun trucks, it was a good assumption Wagner was too.

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)

@MerlinTomkins And then storm Oleshki, a city with a population of 25000 on boats? With no heavy vehicles support or any fast means of evacuation?

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)

@GS_Thunder_2123 Area near Kherson is always swamps. Especially after the flood.

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)

@nepozval After reading other posts and comments of people on other sources, I noticed that many people had a false opinion that a Ukrainian assault on Russian positions on the left bank in the style of D-Day has began. Although in reality this is not even close.

GeoConfirmed (Twitter)

@_b1 Yes we did.
It's in this case not about the who, it's about the reach and how many people will believe this.

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)

RT @UAWeapons: #Ukraine: A Russian Strela-10 short-range air defense system was destroyed by a GMRLS strike of the Ukrainian Army, North of Kodema, #Donetsk Oblast. https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1673086300247793665/video/1

Def Mon (Twitter)

I always said shit will hit the fan when they start calling for air strikes on telegram.
They just did.
Lets see what happens. But at this point I think nothing. Brothers confidence is low.
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/48170