Rob Lee (Twitter)
I think some people assume that both sides commit all of their resources to the front line at all times and that wars are linear, but that isn't how it works. Ukraine has a much better chance of making serious gains this summer than Russia had over the winter.
I think some people assume that both sides commit all of their resources to the front line at all times and that wars are linear, but that isn't how it works. Ukraine has a much better chance of making serious gains this summer than Russia had over the winter.
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
I think the focus on Bakhmut has given some people the wrong perception of the war, conflating a tactical-level battle (Bakhmut) with the strategic level. There were several other battles over the winter and none were successes for Russia.
I think the focus on Bakhmut has given some people the wrong perception of the war, conflating a tactical-level battle (Bakhmut) with the strategic level. There were several other battles over the winter and none were successes for Russia.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@Aintropy Those won't arrive until the ground and weather conditions become worse. Ukraine has to balance a number of factors, including foreign perceptions.
@Aintropy Those won't arrive until the ground and weather conditions become worse. Ukraine has to balance a number of factors, including foreign perceptions.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@Marco_mmabjj Right, mobilization helped Russia stabilize its lines, and for Ukraine to repeat its successes from the fall, it had to spend time training and equipping new units.
@Marco_mmabjj Right, mobilization helped Russia stabilize its lines, and for Ukraine to repeat its successes from the fall, it had to spend time training and equipping new units.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
There are still important long-term questions about ammunition availability and other variables, but I'm more optimistic about Ukraine' chances after Russia's failed winter offensive and recent announcements of more capable weapons' deliveries from NATO members.
There are still important long-term questions about ammunition availability and other variables, but I'm more optimistic about Ukraine' chances after Russia's failed winter offensive and recent announcements of more capable weapons' deliveries from NATO members.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russia made some slow and costly gains last spring before that offensive culminated. Similar arguments were made then about the war's trajectory favoring Moscow, but the attrition Russia sustained set the conditions for Ukraine's successful offensives in Kherson and Kharkiv.
Russia made some slow and costly gains last spring before that offensive culminated. Similar arguments were made then about the war's trajectory favoring Moscow, but the attrition Russia sustained set the conditions for Ukraine's successful offensives in Kherson and Kharkiv.
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russian equipment issues are growing, and they are increasingly relying on convicts to fight/hold their lines. I'm skeptical that Russia can restore sufficient offensive potential to make serious gains. The question is whether they can defend the territory they currently control.
Russian equipment issues are growing, and they are increasingly relying on convicts to fight/hold their lines. I'm skeptical that Russia can restore sufficient offensive potential to make serious gains. The question is whether they can defend the territory they currently control.
Def Mon (Twitter)
@bugg_inu @ConnorMong1 Russian losses are about 10x higher than the 1st Chechen war when it comes to equipment. I wonder where we are at regarding casualties...
@bugg_inu @ConnorMong1 Russian losses are about 10x higher than the 1st Chechen war when it comes to equipment. I wonder where we are at regarding casualties...
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@JayMcvann Clearly some systemic problems. The difference in pay between a commercial airline pilot in China (where there has been substantial demand) and a pilot in the Russian Air Force also became a problem for them.
@JayMcvann Clearly some systemic problems. The difference in pay between a commercial airline pilot in China (where there has been substantial demand) and a pilot in the Russian Air Force also became a problem for them.
Def Mon (Twitter)
During the first Chechen war, Russia lost:
200 tanks
48 AFVs
302 IFVs
153 APCs
In Ukraine:
1989 tanks
861 AFVs
2365 IFVs
309 APCs
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/11/russias-wars-listing-equipment-losses.html
During the first Chechen war, Russia lost:
200 tanks
48 AFVs
302 IFVs
153 APCs
In Ukraine:
1989 tanks
861 AFVs
2365 IFVs
309 APCs
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/11/russias-wars-listing-equipment-losses.html
Oryx
Russia’s Wars: Listing Equipment Losses During The First Chechen War (1994-1996)
By Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans For a list of Russian equipment losses during the 2008 Russo-Georgian War click here. The First Chechen War was fought between Russia and the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria from December 1994 to August 1996, ultimately…
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Def Mon (Twitter)
That is more than 7 times the losses of the 1st Chechen war. Official Russian figures puts deaths at 5,732 but estimates are as high as 14k for the first Chechen war, lets call it a nice and even 10k. So one has to wonder, can we just multiply that by 7 to get 70k KIA?
That is more than 7 times the losses of the 1st Chechen war. Official Russian figures puts deaths at 5,732 but estimates are as high as 14k for the first Chechen war, lets call it a nice and even 10k. So one has to wonder, can we just multiply that by 7 to get 70k KIA?
Def Mon (Twitter)
@jansenart That is not entirely true, you keep stocks so that you don't have to use them. It's is called deterrence. No one will ever be afraid of an army which does not exist.
@jansenart That is not entirely true, you keep stocks so that you don't have to use them. It's is called deterrence. No one will ever be afraid of an army which does not exist.
Def Mon (Twitter)
@bugg_inu @ConnorMong1 No they cant replace it, because they cant get western technology. We have already seen proof of this. They are sending out newly restored tanks with shit optics.
@bugg_inu @ConnorMong1 No they cant replace it, because they cant get western technology. We have already seen proof of this. They are sending out newly restored tanks with shit optics.
Def Mon (Twitter)
You know you are winning when your enemy spend all their cruise missiles and long range drones attacking your capital city, instead of military targets which make sense. On top of that, most of them are being shot down.
You know you are winning when your enemy spend all their cruise missiles and long range drones attacking your capital city, instead of military targets which make sense. On top of that, most of them are being shot down.
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