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Стриминг твитов о российско-украинской войне в ТГ; иногда сообщения также постятся и редактируются вручную
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🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (Twitter)

#Ukraine: Apparently, the Ukrainian army received Milkor M32A1 40mm multi-shot grenade launchers - and they are already being utilized in combat. The delivery was not announced previously, but likely they were supplied within recent military aid packages from the US.
The Lookout (Twitter)

1/6

Some good arguments in this thread for why Russia will not conduct mobilization in the near future.

While this is difficult to analyze, I personally am leaning towards that mobilization is coming, because as I see it, it's either that or lose the war for Russia.
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@DAlperovitch:
I am going to go out on a limb here and make a prediction that Putin will not do a full mobilization call on May 9th or anytime in the near future

I could be wrong and I don’t have as much confidence in this call as I did in my invasion prediction back in December 👇 but… 🧵 https://t.co/JN2RXVPWTc
The Lookout (Twitter)

2/6
The Russian Army has taken heavy casualties in both men and materiel.

While most equipment can be replaced by drawing on reserve stocks, Russian attempts to generate manpower-reserves through voluntary measures seems to have faltered.
The Lookout (Twitter)

3/6
I don't think Moscow has lowered it's war-aims despite the setbacks. One pre-war assessment I got wrong, was that I thought long term occupation was unlikely.

There are now many indicators that Russia indeed has no intention of voluntary giving up occupied territory.
The Lookout (Twitter)

4/6
When the current offensive culminates the Russian Army is a spent force.

While Ukrainian losses are unknown, they have no lack of manpower and with increasing Western support, Ukraine will likely be able to conduct serious counter-offensives over the summer.
The Lookout (Twitter)

5/6
With the current momentum, I don't think Ukraine will (or should) settle for less than victory; recapturing all occupied territory

Therefore, in order to prevent a humiliating defeat, Russia needs to mobilize soon iot prevail on the battlefield and sustain a war of attrition
The Lookout (Twitter)

6/6
This assessment relies on the assumption of a long conventional war, and no negotiated settlement in the coming months.

Russia only has bad options at this stage, and in my view, as long as they don't accept defeat, mobilization may be the lesser evil.

Time will tell.
The Lookout (Twitter)

BZ to the crew of HNoMS Fridtjof Nansen!

The first Norwegian deployment as part of a CSG, at a historical moment in history.
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@Sjoforsvaret:
HNoMS Fridtjof Nansen has concluded her mission with @USNavy Carrier Strike Group 8 in the Mediterranean Sea. Her participation has contributed to the security of Europe and all NATO members, strengthened the relation with the US Navy and improved our ability to operate together https://t.co/4hp2FhChbE
IgorGirkin (Twitter)

В Курской области сотни людей пришли проститься с капитаном ВС РФ Артёмом Сечкиным, погибшим на Украине

1 мая в Дмитриевском районе
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)

Is the “Arms dealer” making contracts in Africa again?
Several photos were published, showing “arms dealer” Aleksandr Zingman attending the Zimbabwe International Trade Fair (ZITF) in Bulawayo on April 29.
More on the reason for Zingman’s visit:
https://motolko.help/en-news/zingman-was-seen-in-africa-again-where-he-presented-the-head-of-zimbabwe-with-a-belaz-model/
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Rob Lee (Twitter)

Video reportedly showing destroyed Russian BMP-3 by 120mm mortar fire from Ukraine's 128th Mountain Assault Brigade.
https://www.facebook.com/128brigade/videos/492647785886545/
IgorGirkin (Twitter)

"сообщают, что в районе 15:00 был зафиксирован прилет артиллерийского снаряда в административное здание Донецкого ГУ МВД ДНР.

Предварительно установлено, что предмет является частью боеприпаса РСЗО "ГРАД".

🤔