‌Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

🇺🇸🇺🇦 "You don't have the cards right now," Pres Trump told Pres Zelensky.

Turns out, he has some cards after all.

Trump can deny it, but things are in motion behind the scenes, and now even Israel wants to talk drones with Kyiv.

Brief summary of my latest for CEPA.

1/10 🧵⬇️

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

After ignoring Ukraine's Aug 2025 pitch to bolster US cUAS capabilities in CENTCOM, US officials are quietly admitting they made a big mistake. Now Ukraine is deploying teams to assist US forces, and the Gulf States in countering the drone threat. Even Bibi is calling now.

2/10

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Ukraine has much to share. It goes beyond any one particular system, its all the tactics, techniques and procedures that Ukraine has. It's how they integrate everything together. It's valuable knowledge born of experience, and they know what its worth.

3/10

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Ukraine acts now as a gesture of good faith, but they want this to be a mutually beneficial exchange. Ukraine has requirements for additional capabilities. PAC-3 MSE interceptors from the US remain high on their list, and they are eyeing certain equipment from Israel too.

4/10

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Most people assume that the US is now worse positioned to supply Ukraine with air defense. This is true in the short term, but the opposite is true in the medium-long term. Production increases while the threat from Iran decreases, reducing demand for US assets in CENTCOM.

5/10

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

I estimate 2026 production of key ballistic missile defense interceptors as:

72-84 SM-3s (IB & IIA)
200 SM-6
360-420 GEM-T
650-700 PAC-3 MSE
98 Talons (THAAD)

By comparison, expenditures by the US & Gulf allies is perhaps 1200-1400, approximately the same. Not that dire.

6/10

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

There is no reason to believe the Trump administration will become more charitable towards Ukraine, but the US will be in a better position to sell Patriot interceptors to Ukraine via the PURL program. They may even be willing to provide them for services in-kind.

7/10

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

If Ukraine can strike arms deals with Gulf States, they will also grow more self sufficient in financing their own defense requirements, particularly long range fires. This is what wins wars. Missile defense is just a tool. You need to destroy the enemy's offensive weapons.

8/10

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

I hope the Trump Admin will see that Putin is running the same Iran playbook of not negotiating in good faith. The solution to this is kinetic, not more diplomacy. Force is the only language Putin understands, and Ukraine must be equipped accordingly.

9/10

‌Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Thanks for reading, please do see the full piece here:

10/10

‌The Lookout (Twitter)

The Norwegian PM says that Norway will not participate in a potential naval mission in Hormuz; "Our priority is the High North"

https://www.nettavisen.no/nyheter/store-avviser-trump-venner-oss-jo-til-dette/s/5-95-2934259

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Коробкоцид
t.me/umftteam/884 t.me/ombr_28/2919 t.me/spartan_ngu/2963 t.me/ua_dshv/8321 #RussianUkrainianWar

The Lookout (Twitter)

Do note the route, north of Larak Island and then close to the Iranian coast. https://twitter.com/MarineTraffic/status/2033490585298915497#m

‌Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

RT @AirPowerNEW1: Remember when the US had lost more than half of its THAAD batteries and had to rush the battery deployed in South Korea to CENTCOM? Yeah, that didn't happen (as local experts and observers were telling us all along but).