Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
RT @Tatarigami_UA: I wanted to share a few thoughts, offering a snapshot of the current situation in general, and discuss a few key points.
- The situation in Pokrovsk is indeed severe but far from hopeless. Ukrainian command has the resources needed for stabilization, though this will require difficult and potentially unpopular decisions.
- Resource shortages stem from both internal and external factors. Internally, issues include delayed mobilization, an ineffective recruitment process, an awful commanding culture, and the government's struggle to balance public opinion with necessary measures. Externally, delays in Western aid, persistent restrictions on weapon use, insufficient military production ramp-up, and slow aid delivery contribute to the problem.
- The issues in Pokrovsk are not new. Delayed aid from the U.S., hindered by an isolationist faction in the US Congress, made the fall of Avdiivka easier for Russian forces. This was exacerbated by inadequate defenses behind Avdiivka, which Ukrainian leadership chose to overlook, shifting responsibility to already overstretched and undermanned brigades.
- The situation in Pokrovsk worsened with the Kursk offensive operation, which diverted experienced and motivated brigades, stripping stabilization reserves and allowing Russian forces to advance rapidly. This also echoes back to Bakhmut, where the decision to reinforce the semi-encircled city with experienced troops, instead of opting for a timely withdrawal, resulted in the loss of many skilled soldiers and officers, weakening the backbone of several effective units
- Western sanctions on Russia were never fully enforced, enabling Russia to maintain and even expand its pre-war military production. This leniency suggests that some Western countries left a "backdoor" open for a post-war return, allowing Russia to significantly increase military recruitment payouts without the anticipated economic collapse
- Russia is more formidable than many pro-Ukrainian analysts suggest but weaker than the pro-Russian camp portrays. Russia does not have unlimited resources: whether in terms of personnel, budget, or societal support. While it can be defeated, this will not happen if Ukraine and its Western partners continue to make the same mistakes.
- Mistakes can be mitigated by an abundance of resources. Russia's ability to sustain the war despite its failures is largely due to its resource advantages. Unfortunately, Ukraine lacks similar resources, and the West is less inclined to bear the cost of these mistakes by Ukraine, even if this will become more costly for the West in the future.
- Despite the propaganda, Ukraine faces one of the most capable militaries in the world. Historical comparisons to the Russian army of the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries reveal striking similarities, yet these armies won numerous large-scale wars. The achievements of Ukrainian soldiers on the ground should not be belittled
- Russia has failed to achieve its strategic objective thus far - overthrowing the government in Kyiv and turning Ukraine into a pro-Russian state. The war has been far less favorable for Russia than anticipated, and despite all its efforts, anything short of a complete occupation will not bring Ukraine back into its sphere of influence.
- Sooner or later, discussions about negotiations and a "frozen conflict" will resurface in the media again, suggesting that a post-war Ukraine with minimal foreign military aid and no security guarantees is preferable to the current situation. In reality, this will give Russia a significant advantage, allowing it to prepare for a potentially more successful invasion.
- If the West genuinely wants this war to end soon, now is the best time to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to gain a strong negotiating position. Forcing Ukraine into negotiations without such an advantage won't succeed, just as Minsk I and Minsk II ultimately failed
After all, Ukraine has rep...
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RT @Tatarigami_UA: I wanted to share a few thoughts, offering a snapshot of the current situation in general, and discuss a few key points.
- The situation in Pokrovsk is indeed severe but far from hopeless. Ukrainian command has the resources needed for stabilization, though this will require difficult and potentially unpopular decisions.
- Resource shortages stem from both internal and external factors. Internally, issues include delayed mobilization, an ineffective recruitment process, an awful commanding culture, and the government's struggle to balance public opinion with necessary measures. Externally, delays in Western aid, persistent restrictions on weapon use, insufficient military production ramp-up, and slow aid delivery contribute to the problem.
- The issues in Pokrovsk are not new. Delayed aid from the U.S., hindered by an isolationist faction in the US Congress, made the fall of Avdiivka easier for Russian forces. This was exacerbated by inadequate defenses behind Avdiivka, which Ukrainian leadership chose to overlook, shifting responsibility to already overstretched and undermanned brigades.
- The situation in Pokrovsk worsened with the Kursk offensive operation, which diverted experienced and motivated brigades, stripping stabilization reserves and allowing Russian forces to advance rapidly. This also echoes back to Bakhmut, where the decision to reinforce the semi-encircled city with experienced troops, instead of opting for a timely withdrawal, resulted in the loss of many skilled soldiers and officers, weakening the backbone of several effective units
- Western sanctions on Russia were never fully enforced, enabling Russia to maintain and even expand its pre-war military production. This leniency suggests that some Western countries left a "backdoor" open for a post-war return, allowing Russia to significantly increase military recruitment payouts without the anticipated economic collapse
- Russia is more formidable than many pro-Ukrainian analysts suggest but weaker than the pro-Russian camp portrays. Russia does not have unlimited resources: whether in terms of personnel, budget, or societal support. While it can be defeated, this will not happen if Ukraine and its Western partners continue to make the same mistakes.
- Mistakes can be mitigated by an abundance of resources. Russia's ability to sustain the war despite its failures is largely due to its resource advantages. Unfortunately, Ukraine lacks similar resources, and the West is less inclined to bear the cost of these mistakes by Ukraine, even if this will become more costly for the West in the future.
- Despite the propaganda, Ukraine faces one of the most capable militaries in the world. Historical comparisons to the Russian army of the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries reveal striking similarities, yet these armies won numerous large-scale wars. The achievements of Ukrainian soldiers on the ground should not be belittled
- Russia has failed to achieve its strategic objective thus far - overthrowing the government in Kyiv and turning Ukraine into a pro-Russian state. The war has been far less favorable for Russia than anticipated, and despite all its efforts, anything short of a complete occupation will not bring Ukraine back into its sphere of influence.
- Sooner or later, discussions about negotiations and a "frozen conflict" will resurface in the media again, suggesting that a post-war Ukraine with minimal foreign military aid and no security guarantees is preferable to the current situation. In reality, this will give Russia a significant advantage, allowing it to prepare for a potentially more successful invasion.
- If the West genuinely wants this war to end soon, now is the best time to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to gain a strong negotiating position. Forcing Ukraine into negotiations without such an advantage won't succeed, just as Minsk I and Minsk II ultimately failed
After all, Ukraine has rep...
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
@SpockNC: I think JLTV would be too small, at least for the full magazine of 20. I assume it will still be trailer based but I don't know if they came away from the prototyping earlier this year wanting to go in a different direction. Maybe @AirPowerNEW1 knows.
@SpockNC: I think JLTV would be too small, at least for the full magazine of 20. I assume it will still be trailer based but I don't know if they came away from the prototyping earlier this year wanting to go in a different direction. Maybe @AirPowerNEW1 knows.
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
@jacob_mowat: 5,000 last I heard. At the outset we were producing 20-25% of what they were, no reason why we couldn't still be doing that.
@jacob_mowat: 5,000 last I heard. At the outset we were producing 20-25% of what they were, no reason why we couldn't still be doing that.
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
@ShawJPa: A lot of it is because Congress doesn't pass Defense Appropriations on time.
@ShawJPa: A lot of it is because Congress doesn't pass Defense Appropriations on time.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
RT @siobhan_ogrady: A beautiful tribute to Ryan that captured him perfectly
“I knew Ryan would be the person who would keep them safe in a war zone & still have time to feed the local dogs & make sure the team had enough sweets in the car and a decent playlist."
https://www.reuters.com/investigations/ryan-evans-killed-ukraine-played-vital-role-reuters-2024-08-28/?fbclid=IwY2xjawE9YqFleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfJ8TINYqGeF-qR91PymQMWeLMpzF4k5-XHojBSt7wVtoMWLDNkk9P1TKw_aem_ZkxVk3edq0YslrVADiUdQQ
RT @siobhan_ogrady: A beautiful tribute to Ryan that captured him perfectly
“I knew Ryan would be the person who would keep them safe in a war zone & still have time to feed the local dogs & make sure the team had enough sweets in the car and a decent playlist."
https://www.reuters.com/investigations/ryan-evans-killed-ukraine-played-vital-role-reuters-2024-08-28/?fbclid=IwY2xjawE9YqFleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfJ8TINYqGeF-qR91PymQMWeLMpzF4k5-XHojBSt7wVtoMWLDNkk9P1TKw_aem_ZkxVk3edq0YslrVADiUdQQ
Reuters
Ryan Evans, killed in Ukraine, played a vital role for Reuters
The 38-year-old father of four’s combat experience and sharp wit made him indispensable to Reuters journalists on the frontlines. ”Are you ok?” was a question Evans repeatedly asked.
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
RT @Doha104p3: Raytheon was awarded a $1.045 Billion fixed price contract for F-22's sensor enhancements program.
RT @Doha104p3: Raytheon was awarded a $1.045 Billion fixed price contract for F-22's sensor enhancements program.
Danvan (Twitter)
RT @marybezuhla: У мережі з'явилася інформація про призначення начальником штабу Командування сил безпілотних систем ЗСУ Романа Гладкого, який не лише не має жодного досвіду роботи з БПЛА, але й був підозрюваний у державній зраді, шпигунстві та корупції, а також має дружину з російським паспортом, дочка виступала на змаганнях за росію.
Підтверджую призначення. Незрозуміло, як він пройшов перевірку Служби безпеки України та досі обіймає найвищі посади. Вихідець із Криму, капітан військово-морських сил з такою репутацією і ніколи не мав відношення до дронів!
Що знаю, призначення саме цієї людини начальником штабу — свідоме рішення Сирського. Він був відправлений туди як "соглядатай" попри протести Вадима Сухаревського та його команди. Це типовий підхід, який було використано багато разів. Зокрема, така ж ситуація у Гнатова, якого Президент призначив на керівництво фронтом замість Содоля. У Гнатова начальник штабу...
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RT @marybezuhla: У мережі з'явилася інформація про призначення начальником штабу Командування сил безпілотних систем ЗСУ Романа Гладкого, який не лише не має жодного досвіду роботи з БПЛА, але й був підозрюваний у державній зраді, шпигунстві та корупції, а також має дружину з російським паспортом, дочка виступала на змаганнях за росію.
Підтверджую призначення. Незрозуміло, як він пройшов перевірку Служби безпеки України та досі обіймає найвищі посади. Вихідець із Криму, капітан військово-морських сил з такою репутацією і ніколи не мав відношення до дронів!
Що знаю, призначення саме цієї людини начальником штабу — свідоме рішення Сирського. Він був відправлений туди як "соглядатай" попри протести Вадима Сухаревського та його команди. Це типовий підхід, який було використано багато разів. Зокрема, така ж ситуація у Гнатова, якого Президент призначив на керівництво фронтом замість Содоля. У Гнатова начальник штабу...
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Danvan (Twitter)
RT @zer0corruption_: І тут слід Татарова. Але його не можна звільняти, бо його "вб'ють рускі". https://twitter.com/cxemu/status/1829157316165545992#m
RT @zer0corruption_: І тут слід Татарова. Але його не можна звільняти, бо його "вб'ють рускі". https://twitter.com/cxemu/status/1829157316165545992#m
Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
@JayinKyiv: US is doing a terrible job with Ukraine aid, giving 2x $125 million packages this month, the bare minimum aid, no new armored vehicles, air defenses, and with restrictions. It’s the least aid they’ve given in the war, other than the months with no aid. Do they want Russia to win?
@JayinKyiv: US is doing a terrible job with Ukraine aid, giving 2x $125 million packages this month, the bare minimum aid, no new armored vehicles, air defenses, and with restrictions. It’s the least aid they’ve given in the war, other than the months with no aid. Do they want Russia to win?
Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
@ukraine_map @JayinKyiv: The US media is even worse. The only thing they report about for the past 3 weeks, 24 hours a day, is Harris vs Trump. There is no accountability for US decreasing aid to Ukraine when it’s needed most, when they are losing land, when they are attacked by 327 missiles/UAVs a day
@ukraine_map @JayinKyiv: The US media is even worse. The only thing they report about for the past 3 weeks, 24 hours a day, is Harris vs Trump. There is no accountability for US decreasing aid to Ukraine when it’s needed most, when they are losing land, when they are attacked by 327 missiles/UAVs a day
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Status-6 (Twitter)
Ukrainian strike drones appeared over Kaluga Oblast in western Russia this early morning.
At least one OWA-UAV was shot down by the Russians.
Ukrainian strike drones appeared over Kaluga Oblast in western Russia this early morning.
At least one OWA-UAV was shot down by the Russians.