‌The Lookout (Twitter)

Director of the Police Security Service has also talked to Dagbladet, saying that they are investigating several cases of possible sabotage, without going into specifics.

According to the Dagbladet, there's at least 3 such ongoing investigations.

https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/advarer-kriminelle-mot-russer-oppdrag/81850941

The Lookout (Twitter)

RT @John_A_Ridge: ‼️🇺🇦🇷🇺 This is the largest Russian air raid against Ukraine to date, with 236 missiles and UAS.
1/6 Iskander-M/KN-23 GLBMs
1/3 Kinzhal ALBMs
1/3 Kh-22/32 ALCMs
77 Kh-101 ALCMs
28 3M-14 Kalibr SLCMs
10 Kh-59/69 ALCMs
(99/115 Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59/69)
99/109 Shahed-131/136 OWA-UAS

The Lookout (Twitter)

1/6
There's an increase in calls for relaxations on the caveats on use of Western long range strike systems and I agree.

But, one needs to be realistic about what this would mean, effects wise.

There is no Western supplied silver bullet to stop the Ru strike campaign.

The Lookout (Twitter)

2/6
Western systems would be most useful for disrupting Russian tactical aviation operations, the glide bombs, but they have started dispersing ahead of such a decision, so the best opportunities are gone.

Hitting after airfields would still be very beneficial for Ukraine.

The Lookout (Twitter)

3/6
Going after the Black Sea Fleet in Novorossiysk, continuing the war of attrition, could reduce the number of Kalibr shooters, but their volume of fire isn't very high.

Thus, the Russian Navy can continue participating in the strikes from the Caspian Sea.

The Lookout (Twitter)

4/6
Long Range Aviation, and especially the Bear-H's, can operate from distant airfields out of reach of Western supplied systems and still cover all of Ukraine.

To counter the LRA, the best way would probably be to help the Ukrainians rapidly scale up their own OWA-UAV programs

The Lookout (Twitter)

5/6
Going after ballistic missile launchers is possible but difficult and requires very good ISR capabilities.

There's only been one possible successful engagement of Iskander TELs so far in the war, in Crimea, in May this year.

The Lookout (Twitter)

6/6
To sum up, relaxing caveats on Western systems is IMO the right thing to do and there are also other good target sets inside Russia I haven't mentioned in this thread.

However, this is unlikely to blunt the Russian strike campaign.

The Lookout (Twitter)

Footage, that should be geo-locatable, of ship-launched Kalibr's. https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1828108011459788837#m

‌The Lookout (Twitter)

RT @RALee85: A reminder that the Black Sea Fleet still poses a threat to Ukraine despite its losses.

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Минус российский "Град"
t.me/fedorenkoys/464 #RussianUkrainianWar

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Коми-уроженец Канев Андрей Юрьевич 1987 г.р. из #25омсбр пошёл занимать оборону, попал под атаку своих дронов и забрёл к ВСУ
t.me/ButusovPlus/13082 #всрф #потерьнет