Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has been fighting two fronts: Russia on the battlefields and intransigent western governments in the halls of power. Fear of escalation has severely limited the quantity and quality of weapons willingly provided to Ukraine.
3/22
Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has been fighting two fronts: Russia on the battlefields and intransigent western governments in the halls of power. Fear of escalation has severely limited the quantity and quality of weapons willingly provided to Ukraine.
3/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Ukraine has been forced to comply with absurd restrictions placed on them out of fear that it would jeopardize what security assistance they do receive from the United States. Efforts by the UK to have the Biden Admin lift the restrictions have been unsuccessful.
4/22
Ukraine has been forced to comply with absurd restrictions placed on them out of fear that it would jeopardize what security assistance they do receive from the United States. Efforts by the UK to have the Biden Admin lift the restrictions have been unsuccessful.
4/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
None of Ukraine's arguments have resolved the fundamental problem: Russia is free to strike all of Ukrainian territory with impunity, but Ukraine cannot respond in kind. The Biden Administration remains adamant that "deep strikes" are both too escalatory & unnecessary.
5/22
None of Ukraine's arguments have resolved the fundamental problem: Russia is free to strike all of Ukrainian territory with impunity, but Ukraine cannot respond in kind. The Biden Administration remains adamant that "deep strikes" are both too escalatory & unnecessary.
5/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Of course, at the end of May/beginning of June, the Biden Admin implemented an extremely limited policy change that allowed Ukraine to defend itself against attacks coming across the border from Belgorod, and later Kursk Oblasts. Long-range fires remained prohibited.
6/22
Of course, at the end of May/beginning of June, the Biden Admin implemented an extremely limited policy change that allowed Ukraine to defend itself against attacks coming across the border from Belgorod, and later Kursk Oblasts. Long-range fires remained prohibited.
6/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
This change was really too little, too late though. Had Ukraine been granted permission sooner, they could have disrupted Russia's Kharkiv offensive before it was launched. By the time Ukraine fired its first defensive strike on Belgorod, Russia had almost culminated.
7/22
This change was really too little, too late though. Had Ukraine been granted permission sooner, they could have disrupted Russia's Kharkiv offensive before it was launched. By the time Ukraine fired its first defensive strike on Belgorod, Russia had almost culminated.
7/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Despite indicating that the policy could be further revised, over the past 11 weeks, there has been no change. Ukraine has been put in the impossible position of having to continue fighting with 1 hand behind their back, because President Biden is afraid of Vladimir Putin.
8/22
Despite indicating that the policy could be further revised, over the past 11 weeks, there has been no change. Ukraine has been put in the impossible position of having to continue fighting with 1 hand behind their back, because President Biden is afraid of Vladimir Putin.
8/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
No argument that Ukraine has made, no action they have taken — striking Russian energy infrastructure, an early ballistic missile warning radar, and other strategic targets — has been able to convince the Biden Admin that Russia will not escalate. What else could they do?
9/22
No argument that Ukraine has made, no action they have taken — striking Russian energy infrastructure, an early ballistic missile warning radar, and other strategic targets — has been able to convince the Biden Admin that Russia will not escalate. What else could they do?
9/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
𝙀𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙆𝙪𝙧𝙨𝙠:
President Zelensky made a decision to start pushing the envelop; to test the seriousness of Biden's threats of terminating aid if they violate the conditions. The operation caught the Russians, the United States, and us analysts off guard.
10/22
𝙀𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙆𝙪𝙧𝙨𝙠:
President Zelensky made a decision to start pushing the envelop; to test the seriousness of Biden's threats of terminating aid if they violate the conditions. The operation caught the Russians, the United States, and us analysts off guard.
10/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
The differing initial reactions from the Biden Admin and the Europeans was an interesting contrast. With the latter giving their approval, and the former's John Kirby saying they were: “reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to get a little bit better understanding.”
11/22
The differing initial reactions from the Biden Admin and the Europeans was an interesting contrast. With the latter giving their approval, and the former's John Kirby saying they were: “reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to get a little bit better understanding.”
11/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
The next day, the Pentagon bizarrely claimed that: “It is consistent with our policy and we have supported Ukraine from the very beginning to defend themselves against attacks that are coming across the border.”
This is of course not true, as that policy dates to June.
12/22
The next day, the Pentagon bizarrely claimed that: “It is consistent with our policy and we have supported Ukraine from the very beginning to defend themselves against attacks that are coming across the border.”
This is of course not true, as that policy dates to June.
12/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
The policy never permitted Ukraine to use American weapons to launch large-scale ground operations into Russia. Attacking a quiet section of the border in Kursk violates the conditions that Ukraine can only return fire or target imminent threats.
13/22
The policy never permitted Ukraine to use American weapons to launch large-scale ground operations into Russia. Attacking a quiet section of the border in Kursk violates the conditions that Ukraine can only return fire or target imminent threats.
13/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
I am sure there will be no shortage of clueless individuals claiming without evidence that Ukraine was given more latitude than what was publicly disclosed, but this is obviously untrue. All evidence shows that the Admin did not know & remains skeptical of the operation.
14/22
I am sure there will be no shortage of clueless individuals claiming without evidence that Ukraine was given more latitude than what was publicly disclosed, but this is obviously untrue. All evidence shows that the Admin did not know & remains skeptical of the operation.
14/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
The State Department said they were not told.
The White House said they were not told.
The Pentagon said they were not told.
15/22
The State Department said they were not told.
The White House said they were not told.
The Pentagon said they were not told.
15/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
By taking the fight onto sovereign Russian territory, Ukraine has further demonstrated the hollowness of the Kremlin's nuclear sabre rattling. They have shifted the Overton Window & forced the Biden Admin top tacitly accept a new status quo in how US weapons can be used.
18/22
By taking the fight onto sovereign Russian territory, Ukraine has further demonstrated the hollowness of the Kremlin's nuclear sabre rattling. They have shifted the Overton Window & forced the Biden Admin top tacitly accept a new status quo in how US weapons can be used.
18/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Churchill never actually said it, but a quote attributed to him reads: “You can depend on Americans to do the right thing when they have exhausted every other possibility.” Will Biden exhaust all possibilities? Or will he lead, and help Kyiv deliver a knockout blow?
22/22
Churchill never actually said it, but a quote attributed to him reads: “You can depend on Americans to do the right thing when they have exhausted every other possibility.” Will Biden exhaust all possibilities? Or will he lead, and help Kyiv deliver a knockout blow?
22/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
If that wasn't enough already, President Zelensky himself has said that "no one knew about our preparations". He goes on to speak at length about the strategic calculus behind the operation. The primary motivation is of course the destruction of Putin's illusory red lines.
17/22
If that wasn't enough already, President Zelensky himself has said that "no one knew about our preparations". He goes on to speak at length about the strategic calculus behind the operation. The primary motivation is of course the destruction of Putin's illusory red lines.
17/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
This was of course not without risk, but President Zelensky correctly calculated that it would be more dangerous to continue fighting with one hand tied behind the back. The strong show of support from both Europe and the US Congress has helped further box Biden in.
19/22
This was of course not without risk, but President Zelensky correctly calculated that it would be more dangerous to continue fighting with one hand tied behind the back. The strong show of support from both Europe and the US Congress has helped further box Biden in.
19/22
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
In on background conversations with US government officials, the media (including NYT, and WSJ, to name a few) has been told the same thing.
16/22
In on background conversations with US government officials, the media (including NYT, and WSJ, to name a few) has been told the same thing.
16/22
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