IgorGirkin (Twitter)

Тривожно 🫂

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Группа «Реванш» ГУР МО ведёт бой в неведомой посадке
t.me/revanche_tactical/902 #RussianUkrainianWar

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

#КурНР: медитирующие мальчики в трусиках
t.me/informnapalm/22491 #всрф #потерьнет

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@SMO_VZ @nexta_tv: It’s no where near 95%. There is videos of S-400s and S-300Vs firing at ATACMS and then multiple ATACMS destroying them seconds later with no evidence of any ATACMS being shot down by those systems before being hit. There is some evidence that a handful of ATACMS have been shot down though or failed.

The rates, if we look at 4 different missiles, Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, ATACMS, HIMARS GMLRS, and Neptune; for Storm Shadow being intercepted is much higher than for ATACMS. Probably somewhere around 30% to 50% of Storm Shadows are being shot down if they are launched at a very well defend area, and for ATACMS is likely much less than Storm Shadow at under 20% being intercepted in a well defended area. With Neptune could be the highest interception and least success with 50% or more being intercepted. Then GMLRS could also have a significant number being intercepted in a well defended area or city, maybe even the majority or all if fired in quantities of 10 or less at a large city like Belgorod. This is different than undefended area that would have significantly smaller rates of interception in them like Rylsk.

JASSM would be the missile Ukraine needs, it’s stealthy and would be much harder to intercept than a Storm Shadow, and US has over 4,400 that were produced. They also need ATACMS, JASSM, SLAM-ER, Taurus, and Storm Shadows in significant quantities to take out the air defenses, logistical routes, and air bases.

If the rate of interception for ATACMS was 95%, then with all the confirmed missile hits using ATACMS that have been recorded via geolocation and video/photos, US would have no more ATACMS left by now, but that isn’t the case.

Realistically, Ukraine has most success with ATACMS, followed by Storm Shadows (which they do not have many of), followed by HIMARS GMLRS, followed by Neptune with the least success. The reason they want to strike Russia is because Russia piles their air defenses in Ukraine to intercept Storm Shadows and other missiles making interception rates much higher in Ukraine then in Russia do to many systems being placed in a much smaller area. If restrictions would be taken off then Russia would need to spread their air defenses out in a significantly larger area making Storm Shadow interception rates go down.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@200__zoka @nexta_tv: It’s better to ask for forgiveness than ask for permission. US sells missiles to other countries and does not place any restrictions on their use. Plus it is a waste of a missile if they don’t allow it to be used on an important target. This also wastes many air defense missiles.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@isk750 @nexta_tv: Can you please provide a source for this? Yes, the number of Storm Shadows sent is not significant enough to make an impact, and it has drastically gone down. Storm Shadows twice a week last year have now turned into strikes once every month or two months. UK only has <800 though

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@GrinGrol @NOELreports: Everyone keeps saying that and does not understand how impossible it would be for Ukraine to produce quality missiles like Storm Shadow or ATACMS at significant rates to have an effect on the war.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @GrinGrol @NOELreports: It would take several years to be developed, would face the threat of missile attacks on the factories, would cost tens of billions of dollars, would be much easier to intercept than ATACMS, and would be extremely hard to get a high production rate to have an impact on the war.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @GrinGrol @NOELreports: There is a reason countries are buying US long range missiles or GMLRS missiles and not making their own because the costs and development time are insane. This is why Ukraine uses HIMARS GMLRS 99% of the time, not their domestically produced Vilkha GMLRS.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@Maks_NAFO_FELLA: They need more Patriots, what is US and Europe waiting for? No new Patriots have been pledged in months and none have ever been order for Ukraine.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @Maks_NAFO_FELLA: Ukraine has 3 Patriots and 1 SAMP-T, half of which are in Kyiv. That’s what they have after 2.5 years. US and Europe have around 100 Patriots and SAMP-T, and just sending or leasing 10% of their existing systems and ordering 5 more systems would make a big difference in the war.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @Maks_NAFO_FELLA: It costs exponentially more to repair all the damaged Russia is causing with ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, especially to critical infrastructure, than it would be to send 10 of their nearly 100 systems with missiles to Ukraine.

‌The Lookout (Twitter)

@maxseddon @xtophercook: 2/
Under the PNIs, the Russians took the NSNWs on shore and into centralized storage.

It is no secret that warheads still exist but they highly likely remain ashore today.
Loading was trained and displayed in the recent exercises.

‌The Lookout (Twitter)

@FRHoffmann1: 3/
The point @FRHoffmann1 makes here doesn't only apply to Germany and is something to remember when hearing a certain type of Russian statements

While the Cold War ended, Russian planners never stopped doing their job.