‌Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Южное направление: не знаю, действительно ли иранскими были снаряды в "Урале", но разлетались неплохо t.me/ukr_sof/828 #RussianUkrainianWar

‌Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Парочка подарков для кучки рашистов t.me/Force_Major_ua/126 #RussianUkrainianWar

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Вы не поверите, но до прихода русского мира и на окраинах такого не было. Просто охуительно Путин "защитил" t.me/Ratnik2nd/4681 #Донецк #русскиймир #Андроник

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

Therefore, I expect that Kyiv will slowly move to the defensive and focus on expanding its fortification systems. This will allow for a reduction in the forces involved in maintaining the front and for the gradual rebuilding of forces and training of units that have so far taken part in the fighting.

7/12

twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/st…

Status-6 (Twitter)

RT @JoeTruzman: Seeing reports that the Israeli military seized an Islamic Jihad Badr 3 rocket. This rocket isn't new and was first fired on the city of Ashkelon in 2019 and caused significant damage.

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

@Dave_8675309: uploaded on Nov 16

I don't recall seeing this video before, though I might've missed it

t.me/Ukr_G_M/28787

Status-6 (Twitter)

🇺🇦🇷🇺 | Polish defence analyst Konrad Muzyka shared his impressions regarding the current state of war following his trip to Ukraine. I've translated the thread into English.

1/12

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

Let's start with Zaluzhny's article in The Economist. The word stalmate is used in a quite awkward manner (more on that below). But it emphasizes that the counteroffensive has ended. Ukraine currently does not have the potential to conduct offensive operations.

2/12

twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/st…

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

@konrad_muzyka: I don't expect any major changes here until spring, although I assume that some form of attacks in Zaporizhzhia will be maintained (squad/platoon attacks). This is not Normandy 1944 and no one here is waiting for a magical breakthrough.

4/12

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

@konrad_muzyka: Given the failure to achieve the goals of the counteroffensive, Kyiv must rethink its current theory of victory and concept of using its forces.

8/12

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

@konrad_muzyka: Personally, I think that the culmination of the counteroffensive took place in September, when the Ukrainians "broke through" the Russian line of fortifications west of Verbove.

3/12

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

@konrad_muzyka: It seems that 2024 will be a difficult year for Ukraine. There is no equipment in the West, probably no ammunition either. Some of the holes will be patched by drones (hundreds of thousands produced annually from 2024).

9/12

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

@konrad_muzyka: The Russians conduct surveillance of the frontline areas 24/7. A mouse won't slip through, not to mention large amounts of hardware. To put these words in context, we saw what an attempted Russian attack on Ukrainian positions looks like.

11/12

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

@konrad_muzyka: Ukraine receives less ammunition than in the summer, which affects the intensity of artillery fire. Ammunition also arrives in Ukraine irregularly, which makes planning operations more difficult.

6/12

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

@konrad_muzyka: 30 seconds after detection, the Russian group was hit by mortar fire. After another four minutes, artillery cluster ammunition. It's the same with Russians. These are the realities of this war.

12/12

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

But to recapture the area, combined operations are needed, air attacks (drones??), artillery, tanks and IFVs. The last three will probably be missing. Besides, I already said half a year ago that the peak of supplies of equipment (contracted) to Ukraine had passed. Nothing has changed in this respect.

10/12

twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/st…

‌Status-6 (Twitter)

I don't know if Zaluzhny used the word "stalemate" on purpose, but unfortunately it has political implications. I believe that from Zelensky's perspective, a stalemate may lead to a freezing of the front (as in 2015) and a withdrawal of military aid from the West. Hence his immediate comment, countering Z's words.

5/12

twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/st…