Def Mon (Twitter)

Before the offensive, I believed RuAF had plenty of reserves in the area, and I still believe that was true. I think RuAF moving two VDV divisions to defend against the UA advance is a sign of high attrition among the regular RU forces.

Def Mon (Twitter)

It seems RuAF have decided to keep counter attacking instead of falling back to their prepared defenses, I think this along with the arrival of DPICM is part of the reason for the high attrition of RuAF.

IgorGirkin (Twitter)

RT @MVS_UA: Ігор Клименко: Внаслідок російського удару по олійниці на Полтавщині загинуло троє людей. Ще один вважається безвісти зниклим. Шукаємо.

«П’ятеро осіб отримали ушкодження різних ступенем тяжкості. Всі постраждалі - працівники підприємства. Пожежа ліквідована», — додав Міністр.

Def Mon (Twitter)

It's also worth pointing out RuAF have committed 2 VDV divisions and one brigade in the Bakhmut area to stop the AFU advances.

Def Mon (Twitter)

Since VDV and Naval Infantry is what RuAF rely on for offensive maneuvers, they are most likely degrading their over all future offensive potential using them defensively.

Def Mon (Twitter)

It remains to be seen how RuAF will utilize the 76th GAAD in the area. This fight is far from done, but I predict we will keep seeing a slow grind well in to the fall/winter.

Def Mon (Twitter)

@3_bm15: I think it's a political thing rather than for military purposes.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

@GermanCucumber1: It's me, but I'm just using it as a placeholder for the time being.

Def Mon (Twitter)

A lot of people ask why RuAF keep counter attacking. I think this is for "political" reasons. This way the local commanders can tell their bosses Ukraine have not managed to take Robotyne yet.

Def Mon (Twitter)

That would make it look like a huge failure for Ukraine on paper. Like they have accomplished nothing during 2.5 moths. This is a great argument for telegram and twitter experts.

Def Mon (Twitter)

In reality, territory gained and lost counted as km/km2 is pretty much irrelevant. This is just as true now as it was during the winter when the russians attacked Bakhmut. What really matters is the attrition ratio.

Def Mon (Twitter)

What we most likely are seeing is RU Southern Military District being highly attired to the point where they need reinforcements from the north. That being said, what we still dont know is how much remaining offensive potential Ukrainian forces have.

‌Def Mon (Twitter)

I keep updating my map even if I don't do daily posts.
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/o…

Def Mon (Twitter)

@Pate100: No it's much less. RU airborne troops have a total of 45000 personnel. But it's also how you want to count, do you want to count all support/command personel?

The Lookout (Twitter)

@danuneken: NOTAMs is the ICAO mechanism for deconflicting activities that requires airspace from normal civilian traffic, such as military activity and space launches.

This is done around the world, every day. Outside the warzone, the Russians issue NOTAMs as before.

Def Mon (Twitter)

@DefMon3 @Pate100: We are talking about 6 maneuvering regiments, with a total of about 1700 personnel each. Including rgt HQ, artillery, air defense, recon, engineering, maintenance etc.