Rob Lee (Twitter)
RT @Stanovaya: A few thoughts in light of Prigozhin's death.
1️⃣ No matter the cause of the plane crash, everyone will see this as an act of retaliation and retribution, and the Kremlin won't particularly counteract this view. From Putin's perspective, as well as many among the security and military officials, Prigozhin's death should serve as a lesson to any potential successors.
2️⃣ I see no reason why Putin would need Prigozhin in any capacity after the mutiny. The only question was whether to spare his life: I had no doubt that the Kremlin would gradually remove all geopolitical projects out from under him. After the mutiny, Prigozhin ceased to be a partner of the state and under no circumstances could he regain that status. He was also not forgiven. Prigozhin was only needed for some time after the mutiny to smoothly dismantle Wagner in Russia and move it to Belarus under new leadership.
3️⃣ Prigozhin was not a classic traitor: he did not consciously betray his homeland, but rather "lost his mind," having significant merits from Putin's perspective. The question was whether this would be enough to let him live. The issue here is that even if on a personal level, Putin might have been affirmative (which is not a given), on the state level (as Putin perceives it), it would be a vulnerability. And it was. A lively, energetic, and idea-filled Prigozhin was undoubtedly a walking issue for the regime, embodying Putin's political humiliation.
4️⃣ For a significant portion of the politicized, conservative public, Prigozhin's death is a well-deserved outcome. Even those who sympathized with him largely condemned the mutiny, believing it weakened the regime during wartime (and they are right).
5️⃣ Prigozhin's death is a direct threat to everyone who stayed with him till the end or openly supported him. It's more likely to intimidate rather than inspire protests. So, no special reaction should be expected. There will be indignation, but no serious political consequences.
RT @Stanovaya: A few thoughts in light of Prigozhin's death.
1️⃣ No matter the cause of the plane crash, everyone will see this as an act of retaliation and retribution, and the Kremlin won't particularly counteract this view. From Putin's perspective, as well as many among the security and military officials, Prigozhin's death should serve as a lesson to any potential successors.
2️⃣ I see no reason why Putin would need Prigozhin in any capacity after the mutiny. The only question was whether to spare his life: I had no doubt that the Kremlin would gradually remove all geopolitical projects out from under him. After the mutiny, Prigozhin ceased to be a partner of the state and under no circumstances could he regain that status. He was also not forgiven. Prigozhin was only needed for some time after the mutiny to smoothly dismantle Wagner in Russia and move it to Belarus under new leadership.
3️⃣ Prigozhin was not a classic traitor: he did not consciously betray his homeland, but rather "lost his mind," having significant merits from Putin's perspective. The question was whether this would be enough to let him live. The issue here is that even if on a personal level, Putin might have been affirmative (which is not a given), on the state level (as Putin perceives it), it would be a vulnerability. And it was. A lively, energetic, and idea-filled Prigozhin was undoubtedly a walking issue for the regime, embodying Putin's political humiliation.
4️⃣ For a significant portion of the politicized, conservative public, Prigozhin's death is a well-deserved outcome. Even those who sympathized with him largely condemned the mutiny, believing it weakened the regime during wartime (and they are right).
5️⃣ Prigozhin's death is a direct threat to everyone who stayed with him till the end or openly supported him. It's more likely to intimidate rather than inspire protests. So, no special reaction should be expected. There will be indignation, but no serious political consequences.
👍6❤1
😁1
Dan (Twitter)
RT @DarthPutinKGB: It would make sense our air defense shot down Prigozhin’s jet as Russian surface to air missile systems are most effective against civilian aircraft.
RT @DarthPutinKGB: It would make sense our air defense shot down Prigozhin’s jet as Russian surface to air missile systems are most effective against civilian aircraft.
Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
@narrative_hole: But why aren't you showing the photos which have evidence of anti-aircraft missile fragments hitting the plane?
@narrative_hole: But why aren't you showing the photos which have evidence of anti-aircraft missile fragments hitting the plane?
🔥11
Status-6 (Twitter)
RT @DEFENSEEXPRESS: Ukraine Produced Twice as Much Ammunition this June Than in Whole 2022 – Strategic Industries Minister
en.defence-ua.com/industries…
RT @DEFENSEEXPRESS: Ukraine Produced Twice as Much Ammunition this June Than in Whole 2022 – Strategic Industries Minister
en.defence-ua.com/industries…
👍18
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Пуск ПЗРК с украинского катера по российскому самолету t.me/Tsaplienko/38144 #RussianUkrainianWar
Пуск ПЗРК с украинского катера по российскому самолету t.me/Tsaplienko/38144 #RussianUkrainianWar
👍28
Rob Lee (Twitter)
RT @DAlperovitch: Hot off the presses. New @GeopolDecanted episode where I dig into the implications of Prigozhin’s reported fiery death with @RALee85 and @Jack_Mrgln
What does it mean for Wagner, Russia, Ukraine and Wagner’s ongoing activities in Africa
Take a listen!
podcast.silverado.org/episod…
RT @DAlperovitch: Hot off the presses. New @GeopolDecanted episode where I dig into the implications of Prigozhin’s reported fiery death with @RALee85 and @Jack_Mrgln
What does it mean for Wagner, Russia, Ukraine and Wagner’s ongoing activities in Africa
Take a listen!
podcast.silverado.org/episod…
Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado
Dmitri Alperovitch talks to Russian military analyst Rob Lee and Wagner Group expert Jack Margolin about the implications of reports of Prigozhin's fiery death in a plane crash in Russia. Where does Wagner go from here? What happens to Russian ambitions…
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Ничего не понятно, но очень интересно t.me/immateriumukrkhorne/460 #RussianUkrainianWar
Ничего не понятно, но очень интересно t.me/immateriumukrkhorne/460 #RussianUkrainianWar
👍5
This media is not supported in your browser
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Какие-то злые и негостеприимные люди. К ним птичка в гости прилетела, а они сразу стрелять. Нельзя так t.me/aerobomber/142 #RussianUkrainianWar
Какие-то злые и негостеприимные люди. К ним птичка в гости прилетела, а они сразу стрелять. Нельзя так t.me/aerobomber/142 #RussianUkrainianWar
👏18