Rob Lee (Twitter)
-There is a difference between soldiers and police not shooting at Wagner and joining them
-Putin and the security services will likely try to weaken Wagner or remove Prigozhin
-Given Wagner's presence overseas, the greatest effects from this event may be felt in MENA/Africa
5/
-There is a difference between soldiers and police not shooting at Wagner and joining them
-Putin and the security services will likely try to weaken Wagner or remove Prigozhin
-Given Wagner's presence overseas, the greatest effects from this event may be felt in MENA/Africa
5/
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Dan (Twitter)
RT @Tatarigami_UA: The "Fighterbomber" channel, overseen by a former russian Air Force officer, claims that russia has incurred losses during this mutiny, including:
3 х Мi-8 MTPR
1 х Мi-8
1 х Ka-52
1 х Мi-35
1 х IL-18 VZPU
RT @Tatarigami_UA: The "Fighterbomber" channel, overseen by a former russian Air Force officer, claims that russia has incurred losses during this mutiny, including:
3 х Мi-8 MTPR
1 х Мi-8
1 х Ka-52
1 х Мi-35
1 х IL-18 VZPU
Dan (Twitter)
From below:
'Furthermore, this upheaval exposes the inherent weakness within the system itself. Numerous senior officers responsible for decision-making chose to abstain from issuing orders or making decisive moves, opting to wait for the outcome.'
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@Tatarigami_UA:
My thoughts, and brief summary on the situation:
The recent events have sparked contemplation on whether Prigozhin will endure the aftermath or succumb to its consequences. However, there is no doubt that this rebellion carries far-reaching implications.
From both external and… https://t.co/uWI8pn3ZO8 https://t.co/65KRIjYvsY
From below:
'Furthermore, this upheaval exposes the inherent weakness within the system itself. Numerous senior officers responsible for decision-making chose to abstain from issuing orders or making decisive moves, opting to wait for the outcome.'
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@Tatarigami_UA:
My thoughts, and brief summary on the situation:
The recent events have sparked contemplation on whether Prigozhin will endure the aftermath or succumb to its consequences. However, there is no doubt that this rebellion carries far-reaching implications.
From both external and… https://t.co/uWI8pn3ZO8 https://t.co/65KRIjYvsY
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Dan (Twitter)
RT @osint_east: He's the weakest now that he has ever been. The entire state narrative is crushed. Everyone will be expecting gains out of leadership changes in the MoD, 10,000s of Russian soldiers and contractors are disgruntled, or confused. The real picture unfolds as the long cons manifest.
RT @osint_east: He's the weakest now that he has ever been. The entire state narrative is crushed. Everyone will be expecting gains out of leadership changes in the MoD, 10,000s of Russian soldiers and contractors are disgruntled, or confused. The real picture unfolds as the long cons manifest.
Dan (Twitter)
RT @OAlexanderDK: Groundbreaking insight from Geopolitical expert Ian “Malaysian Eunuch” Miles Cheong
RT @OAlexanderDK: Groundbreaking insight from Geopolitical expert Ian “Malaysian Eunuch” Miles Cheong
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@KimberlyMarten @Gerashchenko_en Reportedly from 2017.
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@RALee85:
Photo of Wagner’s Dmitry Utkin.
https://t.co/QtC21FMGiW https://t.co/rP0GD9i51L
@KimberlyMarten @Gerashchenko_en Reportedly from 2017.
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@RALee85:
Photo of Wagner’s Dmitry Utkin.
https://t.co/QtC21FMGiW https://t.co/rP0GD9i51L
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Dan (Twitter)
RT @olliecarroll: That should be the end of that. Putin doesn’t tend to hold grudges. Happy ever after.
RT @olliecarroll: That should be the end of that. Putin doesn’t tend to hold grudges. Happy ever after.
Dan (Twitter)
RT @NLwartracker: Everybody seems really unhappy with the outcome of this day, actually i am not, ofcourse i would like to have seen fighting in moscow, but don't forget what has happend here was a shock to the system. Putin showed his weakness, so did Prigo and things can't go back to normal.… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672673134510473216
RT @NLwartracker: Everybody seems really unhappy with the outcome of this day, actually i am not, ofcourse i would like to have seen fighting in moscow, but don't forget what has happend here was a shock to the system. Putin showed his weakness, so did Prigo and things can't go back to normal.… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672673134510473216
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Dan (Twitter)
RT @EliotHiggins: Keep in mind that in all this, the incident that was supposed to have triggered Wagner's response may not have even happened. So far, there's been a sparsity of evidence confirming the attack on the Wagner camp took place.
RT @EliotHiggins: Keep in mind that in all this, the incident that was supposed to have triggered Wagner's response may not have even happened. So far, there's been a sparsity of evidence confirming the attack on the Wagner camp took place.
Dan (Twitter)
RT @Kasparov63: Mafia is as mafia does. Whatever deal was reached today, blood has been spilled and Putin's illusion of invincibility is gone. He and his cronies tasted real fear. Moscow was threatened.
RT @Kasparov63: Mafia is as mafia does. Whatever deal was reached today, blood has been spilled and Putin's illusion of invincibility is gone. He and his cronies tasted real fear. Moscow was threatened.
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
@KimberlyMarten @Gerashchenko_en There have been a couple of photos from Syria, but haven't seen anything recent. Not sure when the selfie photo was taken.
@KimberlyMarten @Gerashchenko_en There have been a couple of photos from Syria, but haven't seen anything recent. Not sure when the selfie photo was taken.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
"A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government."
@shaneharris @nakashimae
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/24/us-intelligence-prigozhin-putin/
"A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government."
@shaneharris @nakashimae
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/24/us-intelligence-prigozhin-putin/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
"U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Putin also was informed that Prigozhin was plotting something. And though it is not clear precisely when he was told, it was 'definitely more than 24 hours ago,' the U.S. official said. It remains unclear why Putin did not take action"
"U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Putin also was informed that Prigozhin was plotting something. And though it is not clear precisely when he was told, it was 'definitely more than 24 hours ago,' the U.S. official said. It remains unclear why Putin did not take action"
Rob Lee (Twitter)
7/
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@RALee85:
"A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government."
@shaneharris @nakashimae
https://t.co/zQtO8Ga3tJ https://t.co/ppNq8Na3kf
7/
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@RALee85:
"A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government."
@shaneharris @nakashimae
https://t.co/zQtO8Ga3tJ https://t.co/ppNq8Na3kf
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
@BallouxFrancois Well I think it would depend on their goal. But I don't think calling it an armed rebellion or mutiny downplays its significance.
@BallouxFrancois Well I think it would depend on their goal. But I don't think calling it an armed rebellion or mutiny downplays its significance.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
"officials saw signs that Prigozhin was making preparations for such a move, including by massing weapons and ammunition...it was difficult to discern how serious Prigozhin was about threatening the Russian military and where he would take his troops."
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/24/politics/us-western-officials-russia-prigozhin-putin/index.html
"officials saw signs that Prigozhin was making preparations for such a move, including by massing weapons and ammunition...it was difficult to discern how serious Prigozhin was about threatening the Russian military and where he would take his troops."
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/24/politics/us-western-officials-russia-prigozhin-putin/index.html
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
@BlueRepublik I think the main goal was to prevent Wagner from being subordinated to the MoD, which likely had Putin's support. Prigozhin may have had more ambitious goals, but this was the pressing issue.
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@RALee85:
I think the catalyst for this was the move by the MoD to force all PMCs to sign contracts with them, which likely had Putin's support. There might be a short-term compromise or truce, but I don't think things can go back to normal after this. https://t.co/l64Xw5cC4Y
@BlueRepublik I think the main goal was to prevent Wagner from being subordinated to the MoD, which likely had Putin's support. Prigozhin may have had more ambitious goals, but this was the pressing issue.
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@RALee85:
I think the catalyst for this was the move by the MoD to force all PMCs to sign contracts with them, which likely had Putin's support. There might be a short-term compromise or truce, but I don't think things can go back to normal after this. https://t.co/l64Xw5cC4Y
Twitter
I think the catalyst for this was the move by the MoD to force all PMCs to sign contracts with them, which likely had Putin's support. There might be a short-term compromise or truce, but I don't think things can go back to normal after this.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
RT @KevinRothrock: Fascinating essay by analyst @baunov, who argues that military failures in Ukraine have turbo-charged anti-elite sentiment inside Russia, fueling demands for the USSR 3.0, forcing Putin into a vulnerable position of defending the elites & market economy. https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90036
RT @KevinRothrock: Fascinating essay by analyst @baunov, who argues that military failures in Ukraine have turbo-charged anti-elite sentiment inside Russia, fueling demands for the USSR 3.0, forcing Putin into a vulnerable position of defending the elites & market economy. https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90036
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Война вовнутрь. На что рассчитывает Пригожин
После начала вооруженного мятежа задачу Пригожина можно сформулировать так: стать вторым не после Путина, а вместо Путина — не сместить, а заместить его собой
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