Rob Lee (Twitter)
Some early thoughts:
-More questions than answers
-Short-term compromise ≠ long-term solution
-This was a mutiny not a coup
-Too soon to say Putin will fall anytime soon
-Not clear this will affect Ukraine's offensive
-The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over
Some early thoughts:
-More questions than answers
-Short-term compromise ≠ long-term solution
-This was a mutiny not a coup
-Too soon to say Putin will fall anytime soon
-Not clear this will affect Ukraine's offensive
-The previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over
👍2
Rob Lee (Twitter)
-Likely an attempt by Prigozhin/Wagner to keep their independence and not be subordinated to the MoD
-May have succeeded in the short-term but probably won't in the long-term
-The terms of the agreement aren't clear but these probably aren't a solution
2/
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@maxseddon:
Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov:
– charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus
– Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD
– Wagner fighters who did take part not charged
– No word on potential MOD leadership changes
-Likely an attempt by Prigozhin/Wagner to keep their independence and not be subordinated to the MoD
-May have succeeded in the short-term but probably won't in the long-term
-The terms of the agreement aren't clear but these probably aren't a solution
2/
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@maxseddon:
Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov:
– charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus
– Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD
– Wagner fighters who did take part not charged
– No word on potential MOD leadership changes
Twitter
Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov:
– charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus
– Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD
– Wagner fighters who did take part not charged
– No word on potential…
– charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus
– Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD
– Wagner fighters who did take part not charged
– No word on potential…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
-What started as a factional dispute between powerful Russian figures became a public challenge to Putin
-This event was designed to get Putin's attention
-Possibly one of the worst days in the Russian Air Force's history and caused by Russians
3/
-What started as a factional dispute between powerful Russian figures became a public challenge to Putin
-This event was designed to get Putin's attention
-Possibly one of the worst days in the Russian Air Force's history and caused by Russians
3/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
-Wagner-Russian military cooperation will likely suffer
-Putin and the MoD's leadership look weak
-Prigozhin likely alienated many pro-war figures for doing this while Russian soldiers are defending against an offensive and killing Russian airmen
4/
-Wagner-Russian military cooperation will likely suffer
-Putin and the MoD's leadership look weak
-Prigozhin likely alienated many pro-war figures for doing this while Russian soldiers are defending against an offensive and killing Russian airmen
4/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
-There is a difference between soldiers and police not shooting at Wagner and joining them
-Putin and the security services will likely try to weaken Wagner or remove Prigozhin
-Given Wagner's presence overseas, the greatest effects from this event may be felt in MENA/Africa
5/
-There is a difference between soldiers and police not shooting at Wagner and joining them
-Putin and the security services will likely try to weaken Wagner or remove Prigozhin
-Given Wagner's presence overseas, the greatest effects from this event may be felt in MENA/Africa
5/
👍1
Dan (Twitter)
RT @Tatarigami_UA: The "Fighterbomber" channel, overseen by a former russian Air Force officer, claims that russia has incurred losses during this mutiny, including:
3 х Мi-8 MTPR
1 х Мi-8
1 х Ka-52
1 х Мi-35
1 х IL-18 VZPU
RT @Tatarigami_UA: The "Fighterbomber" channel, overseen by a former russian Air Force officer, claims that russia has incurred losses during this mutiny, including:
3 х Мi-8 MTPR
1 х Мi-8
1 х Ka-52
1 х Мi-35
1 х IL-18 VZPU
Dan (Twitter)
From below:
'Furthermore, this upheaval exposes the inherent weakness within the system itself. Numerous senior officers responsible for decision-making chose to abstain from issuing orders or making decisive moves, opting to wait for the outcome.'
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@Tatarigami_UA:
My thoughts, and brief summary on the situation:
The recent events have sparked contemplation on whether Prigozhin will endure the aftermath or succumb to its consequences. However, there is no doubt that this rebellion carries far-reaching implications.
From both external and… https://t.co/uWI8pn3ZO8 https://t.co/65KRIjYvsY
From below:
'Furthermore, this upheaval exposes the inherent weakness within the system itself. Numerous senior officers responsible for decision-making chose to abstain from issuing orders or making decisive moves, opting to wait for the outcome.'
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@Tatarigami_UA:
My thoughts, and brief summary on the situation:
The recent events have sparked contemplation on whether Prigozhin will endure the aftermath or succumb to its consequences. However, there is no doubt that this rebellion carries far-reaching implications.
From both external and… https://t.co/uWI8pn3ZO8 https://t.co/65KRIjYvsY
👍1
Dan (Twitter)
RT @osint_east: He's the weakest now that he has ever been. The entire state narrative is crushed. Everyone will be expecting gains out of leadership changes in the MoD, 10,000s of Russian soldiers and contractors are disgruntled, or confused. The real picture unfolds as the long cons manifest.
RT @osint_east: He's the weakest now that he has ever been. The entire state narrative is crushed. Everyone will be expecting gains out of leadership changes in the MoD, 10,000s of Russian soldiers and contractors are disgruntled, or confused. The real picture unfolds as the long cons manifest.
Dan (Twitter)
RT @OAlexanderDK: Groundbreaking insight from Geopolitical expert Ian “Malaysian Eunuch” Miles Cheong
RT @OAlexanderDK: Groundbreaking insight from Geopolitical expert Ian “Malaysian Eunuch” Miles Cheong
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@KimberlyMarten @Gerashchenko_en Reportedly from 2017.
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@RALee85:
Photo of Wagner’s Dmitry Utkin.
https://t.co/QtC21FMGiW https://t.co/rP0GD9i51L
@KimberlyMarten @Gerashchenko_en Reportedly from 2017.
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@RALee85:
Photo of Wagner’s Dmitry Utkin.
https://t.co/QtC21FMGiW https://t.co/rP0GD9i51L
🤮1
Dan (Twitter)
RT @olliecarroll: That should be the end of that. Putin doesn’t tend to hold grudges. Happy ever after.
RT @olliecarroll: That should be the end of that. Putin doesn’t tend to hold grudges. Happy ever after.
Dan (Twitter)
RT @NLwartracker: Everybody seems really unhappy with the outcome of this day, actually i am not, ofcourse i would like to have seen fighting in moscow, but don't forget what has happend here was a shock to the system. Putin showed his weakness, so did Prigo and things can't go back to normal.… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672673134510473216
RT @NLwartracker: Everybody seems really unhappy with the outcome of this day, actually i am not, ofcourse i would like to have seen fighting in moscow, but don't forget what has happend here was a shock to the system. Putin showed his weakness, so did Prigo and things can't go back to normal.… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672673134510473216
👍1
Dan (Twitter)
RT @EliotHiggins: Keep in mind that in all this, the incident that was supposed to have triggered Wagner's response may not have even happened. So far, there's been a sparsity of evidence confirming the attack on the Wagner camp took place.
RT @EliotHiggins: Keep in mind that in all this, the incident that was supposed to have triggered Wagner's response may not have even happened. So far, there's been a sparsity of evidence confirming the attack on the Wagner camp took place.
Dan (Twitter)
RT @Kasparov63: Mafia is as mafia does. Whatever deal was reached today, blood has been spilled and Putin's illusion of invincibility is gone. He and his cronies tasted real fear. Moscow was threatened.
RT @Kasparov63: Mafia is as mafia does. Whatever deal was reached today, blood has been spilled and Putin's illusion of invincibility is gone. He and his cronies tasted real fear. Moscow was threatened.
👍5
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@KimberlyMarten @Gerashchenko_en There have been a couple of photos from Syria, but haven't seen anything recent. Not sure when the selfie photo was taken.
@KimberlyMarten @Gerashchenko_en There have been a couple of photos from Syria, but haven't seen anything recent. Not sure when the selfie photo was taken.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
"A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government."
@shaneharris @nakashimae
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/24/us-intelligence-prigozhin-putin/
"A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government."
@shaneharris @nakashimae
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/24/us-intelligence-prigozhin-putin/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
"U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Putin also was informed that Prigozhin was plotting something. And though it is not clear precisely when he was told, it was 'definitely more than 24 hours ago,' the U.S. official said. It remains unclear why Putin did not take action"
"U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Putin also was informed that Prigozhin was plotting something. And though it is not clear precisely when he was told, it was 'definitely more than 24 hours ago,' the U.S. official said. It remains unclear why Putin did not take action"
Rob Lee (Twitter)
7/
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@RALee85:
"A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government."
@shaneharris @nakashimae
https://t.co/zQtO8Ga3tJ https://t.co/ppNq8Na3kf
7/
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@RALee85:
"A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government."
@shaneharris @nakashimae
https://t.co/zQtO8Ga3tJ https://t.co/ppNq8Na3kf
👍1
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@BallouxFrancois Well I think it would depend on their goal. But I don't think calling it an armed rebellion or mutiny downplays its significance.
@BallouxFrancois Well I think it would depend on their goal. But I don't think calling it an armed rebellion or mutiny downplays its significance.