Def Mon (Twitter)
Great daily weather report by @davidhelms570
We might see some snow soon. If we get significant a decent snow cover, it will take longer for the ground to freeze. I think it's unlikely the ground will get frozen during the next week/ten days.
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@davidhelms570:
November 15, 2022: #NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours-Cloudy, low temp -1C to 2C, winds from southeast-southwest 3-7 m/s.
Significant rain & snow (>20 mm) Thurs-Sat, possible snow later.
*Alert* This week temperatures dropping to -4C. Please expedite delivery of cold weather kit! https://t.co/FsvovxlXLr
Great daily weather report by @davidhelms570
We might see some snow soon. If we get significant a decent snow cover, it will take longer for the ground to freeze. I think it's unlikely the ground will get frozen during the next week/ten days.
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@davidhelms570:
November 15, 2022: #NAFO #NAFOWeather next 24 hours-Cloudy, low temp -1C to 2C, winds from southeast-southwest 3-7 m/s.
Significant rain & snow (>20 mm) Thurs-Sat, possible snow later.
*Alert* This week temperatures dropping to -4C. Please expedite delivery of cold weather kit! https://t.co/FsvovxlXLr
Def Mon (Twitter)
Svatove
The AFU repulsed an attack around Novoselivs'ke. UA forces are slowly destroying RU positions and morale in this area.
Svatove
The AFU repulsed an attack around Novoselivs'ke. UA forces are slowly destroying RU positions and morale in this area.
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Def Mon (Twitter)
I believe an AFU breakthrough is possible in the Savtove-Kreminna area. But I'm not sure AFU would be able to exploit it more than liberating more than one village at a time with current weather/terrain conditions.
I believe an AFU breakthrough is possible in the Savtove-Kreminna area. But I'm not sure AFU would be able to exploit it more than liberating more than one village at a time with current weather/terrain conditions.
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Def Mon (Twitter)
Bakhmut
Bilohorivka has been the main focus for RuAF during the last week or so. They had some initial success, and claimed capture of the village. As per usual, it was not true as they keep attacking that village.
Bakhmut
Bilohorivka has been the main focus for RuAF during the last week or so. They had some initial success, and claimed capture of the village. As per usual, it was not true as they keep attacking that village.
Def Mon (Twitter)
They also claimed to have cleared out the last of Bakhmuts'ke a few weeks ago. This has also proven to be a lie.
The AFU repulsed attacks around Bilohorivka Bakhmuts'ke and Bakhmut.
They also claimed to have cleared out the last of Bakhmuts'ke a few weeks ago. This has also proven to be a lie.
The AFU repulsed attacks around Bilohorivka Bakhmuts'ke and Bakhmut.
Def Mon (Twitter)
Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Novokalynove, Pervomais'ke, Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka and Vremivka
Pavlivka has not been captured by the Russians. I'm not even sure they want to stay there.
Donetsk
The AFU repulsed attacks around Novokalynove, Pervomais'ke, Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka and Vremivka
Pavlivka has not been captured by the Russians. I'm not even sure they want to stay there.
Def Mon (Twitter)
Thigs are likely to get better for the UA forces along the Bakhmut/Donetsk front. Reinforcements are starting to arrive from the Kherson region. This will change the artillery balance in AFUs favor.
Thigs are likely to get better for the UA forces along the Bakhmut/Donetsk front. Reinforcements are starting to arrive from the Kherson region. This will change the artillery balance in AFUs favor.
Def Mon (Twitter)
After yesterdays flood of rumors it seems to have calmed down a bit. RU forces still hold the left bank of the Dnipro. I suspect they are scaling down the troop presence in the area within 155mm range.
After yesterdays flood of rumors it seems to have calmed down a bit. RU forces still hold the left bank of the Dnipro. I suspect they are scaling down the troop presence in the area within 155mm range.
Def Mon (Twitter)
I would have smaller recon teams close to the river and have rapid response forces just out of artillery range. Ukraine will not launch a river crossing operation in a few hours time, the Russians will have time to respond even if they are 20-30km away.
I would have smaller recon teams close to the river and have rapid response forces just out of artillery range. Ukraine will not launch a river crossing operation in a few hours time, the Russians will have time to respond even if they are 20-30km away.
Def Mon (Twitter)
To clarify, AFU presence in
Kiburn peninsula: Myth
Hola Prystan': Myth
Nova Kakhovka: Myth
Oleshky: Myth
Did I miss one? If so it will be: Myth
I'm not even sure SOF are operating in the area. It is possible, but in very small teams I would think.
To clarify, AFU presence in
Kiburn peninsula: Myth
Hola Prystan': Myth
Nova Kakhovka: Myth
Oleshky: Myth
Did I miss one? If so it will be: Myth
I'm not even sure SOF are operating in the area. It is possible, but in very small teams I would think.
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Def Mon (Twitter)
And ofc article 5 would not automatically mean nuclear war. But I see no reason to call for A5 as I don't think an offensive military response will be on the table.
I do think there will be discussions about how to strengthen Poland's defense.
And ofc article 5 would not automatically mean nuclear war. But I see no reason to call for A5 as I don't think an offensive military response will be on the table.
I do think there will be discussions about how to strengthen Poland's defense.
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Def Mon (Twitter)
While I was buys writing this, Information emerged about Russian missiles killing two people in Poland.
I do not think article 5 will be invoked, this is most likely unintentional and no one will risk a nuclear war over 2 stray missiles.
Article 4 is very likely.
While I was buys writing this, Information emerged about Russian missiles killing two people in Poland.
I do not think article 5 will be invoked, this is most likely unintentional and no one will risk a nuclear war over 2 stray missiles.
Article 4 is very likely.
Def Mon (Twitter)
And ofc article 5 would not automatically mean nuclear war. But I see no reason to call for A5 as I don't think an offensive military response will be on the table.
I do think there will be discussions about how to strengthen Poland's defense.
And ofc article 5 would not automatically mean nuclear war. But I see no reason to call for A5 as I don't think an offensive military response will be on the table.
I do think there will be discussions about how to strengthen Poland's defense.
The Lookout (Twitter)
I'll hold off with commenting on the developing situation in Poland, and it's potential implications, until we get official statements from Warzaw.
I'll hold off with commenting on the developing situation in Poland, and it's potential implications, until we get official statements from Warzaw.
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
Polish media report that two missiles fell on the territory of Poland: there are fatalities.
@wolski_jaros published a photo of the consequences of a missile hit near Przewodów, Lublin Voivodeship.
1/2
Polish media report that two missiles fell on the territory of Poland: there are fatalities.
@wolski_jaros published a photo of the consequences of a missile hit near Przewodów, Lublin Voivodeship.
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MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
It also became known that the Prime Minister of Poland, as agreed with the President, called an urgent meeting at the National Security Bureau.
An official representative of the local fire commandant’s office stated that the causes of the incident are still unknown.
2/2
It also became known that the Prime Minister of Poland, as agreed with the President, called an urgent meeting at the National Security Bureau.
An official representative of the local fire commandant’s office stated that the causes of the incident are still unknown.
2/2
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MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
The Belarusian Hajun has not registered missile launches from the territory or airspace of Belarus today.
According to our information, the last missile launch using the Belarusian airspace was registered on October 6.
The Belarusian Hajun has not registered missile launches from the territory or airspace of Belarus today.
According to our information, the last missile launch using the Belarusian airspace was registered on October 6.
Status-6 (Twitter)
RT @MFAestonia: Latest news from Poland is most concerning. We are consulting closely with Poland and other Allies. Estonia is ready to defend every inch of NATO territory. We’re in full solidarity with our close ally Poland 🇵🇱
RT @MFAestonia: Latest news from Poland is most concerning. We are consulting closely with Poland and other Allies. Estonia is ready to defend every inch of NATO territory. We’re in full solidarity with our close ally Poland 🇵🇱
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